Former President Donald Trump and Republicans are promoting the idea that Virginia will be in play in the general election this fall.

It’s part of Mr. Trump’s ambitious quest to push into traditionally Democratic territory including a recent rally in the Bronx and a campaign foray into Minnesota.  

Virginia for decades was a reliably Republican state in presidential elections. But that changed after President Obama carried the state over Sen. John McCain in 2008.

Democrats have since dominated presidential elections, including in 2020 when President Biden outperformed Mr. Trump by a 10-point margin, underscoring the state’s dramatic swing from deep red to solid blue.

Buoyed by polls suggesting the American electorate is experiencing buyer’s remorse with Mr. Biden, Team Trump and his allies say Virginia is within reach. 

“What we’ve demonstrated is commonsense conservative policies work, and Virginians appreciate that,” Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican said in a recent interview. 

Mr. Youngkin maintains his victory in the 2021 gubernatorial race showed how it took less than a year for voters to cool to the Biden-led Democrats.

Plus, he says, voters recognize conservative policies adopted on his watch have helped generate a “rip-roaring economy,” deliver safer communities, and advance an education agenda that does not allow for “equity to replace excellence in our schools.”

“All of a sudden they see a massive disparity between what Joe Biden stands for and what Donald Trump stands for,” he said. “So yeah, Virginia is in play!” 

Chris LaCivta, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign who cut his teeth in Virginia politics, recently shared a similar message with donors, telling them the Old Dominion is up for grabs.

Democrats say Republicans are getting ahead of themselves.

They say Republicans underestimate voters’ goodwill for Mr. Biden and lingering distaste for Mr. Trump.

“President Biden has delivered for Virginians unlike Donald Trump, who failed to improve infrastructure, overturned Roe v. Wade, and failed working-class people,” said Kelsey Carolan, spokeswoman for the Democratic Party of Virginia. “We are confident that when Virginians go to the polls, they will reject Trump’s lies and mission to destroy democracy and reelect Biden to continue growing our economy and protecting and expanding our rights.”

The Biden campaign was sent a request for comment.

Mr. Youngkin’s victory in 2021 capped a big night for Republicans who saw Jason Miyares Miyares elected attorney general and Winsome Sears become lieutenant governor. 

Democrats, however, last year flipped control of the House of Delegates and retained control of the state Senate.

Virginia voters this fall will also be deciding whether to reward Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, who served as Hillary Clinton’s 2016 running mate, with another six-year term.

Republicans have not held a U.S. Senate seat in Virginia since Sen. John Warner retired in 2009.

Political analysts also are less bullish than Republicans about Mr. Trump’s chances of flipping Virginia.

“I would say the Republicans could win here if everything goes right for them,” said J. Miles Coleman, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

The GOP’s path to victory has grown more difficult, he said, citing the growth and demographic shift in Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads and Richmond suburbs.

“That said, if current polling holds up, Biden does seem to have some legit weakness with minority voters,” Mr. Coleman said.

Mr. Youngkin also could prove to be a wildcard. Virginia does not allow governors to serve two conservative terms and he could be the sole Republican from a blue state who is on Mr. Trump’s list of possible running mates.

Some polls have suggested Mr. Biden is vulnerable in Virginia five months from Election Day.

A recent McLaughlin and Associated poll showed Mr. Biden with a 40%-37% lead over Mr. Trump when third-party contenders, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are included. Mr. Biden helped a 48%-44% lead over Mr. Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.

“Donald Trump is right on the heels of Joe Biden in very competitive ballot scenarios with and without Robert F. Kennedy Jr.,” the pollsters said.

Another warning sign for Mr. Biden is his approval rating. It was far worse than top Virginia leaders from both sides of the aside.

The president had 41% approval and 56% disapproval.

Meanwhile, 53% approved of Mr. Youngkin compared to 36% who disapproved, and 54% approved of Mr. Kaine versus 28% who disapproved.

“Joe Biden is so weak, and Democrats are in such disarray, that not only is President Trump winning every traditional battleground state, but longtime blue states such as Minnesota, Virginia, and New Jersey are now in play. President Trump is on offense with a winning message and growing his movement every single day,” said Karoline Leavitt of the Trump campaign. “Joe Biden’s campaign should be terrified.”

• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.