TAMPA, Florida — The U.S. military routinely prepares contingency plans for virtually every possible conflict on the planet, from a surprise Chinese attack on Taiwan to a sudden conflagration in the Middle East, Africa or elsewhere.
But wargaming a theoretical clash with North Korea is no easy task, as the regime has so successfully sealed itself off from outside penetration that even America’s top uniformed commanders admit they have major knowledge gaps about Pyongyang’s capabilities, its battlefield doctrines and its soldiers’ willingness to fight.
“It’s a literal black hole,” said Maj. Gen. Michael E. Martin, the head of U.S. Special Operations Command-Korea, a vital unit that would play a key role should a shooting war break out on the tense, long-divided Korean peninsula.
In an interview with The Washington Times, Gen. Martin offered a blunt take on whether North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s military is a competent fighting force – one that could inflict significant damage on the U.S. and its ally, South Korea, in the event of a major conflict.
North Korea’s nuclear weapons are another volatile variable in the equation. While Washington and its partners have some insights into Pyongyang’s nuclear program, some of the North’s other capabilities remain mysterious.
“I don’t know, but I have to treat them as they are,” Gen. Martin said when asked if the North Korean military is competent and capable by traditional standards. “We have to. Because if we don’t and we’re dismissive, we could undershoot the target if we ever get told it’s gametime. We have to play that they can communicate amongst themselves, they do have mission-type orders, they do – potentially, not all militaries do this – empower at lower levels. I can’t tell you for sure, … [but] I can’t discount it.”
Gen. Martin spoke with The Times on the sidelines of the Special Operations Forces conference here, one of the world’s largest gatherings of military leaders, defense contractors and other players in the high-stakes special forces universe.
He said that he and his forces by necessity must prepare to fight a North Korean military machine much stronger and better organized than it may be in reality. That includes making some educated guesses – with the aid of intelligence gathered from South Korea and other regional partners – to gain a window into what Pyongyang might bring to the battlefield.
The 2023 Global Firepower ranking, which takes into account some 60 factors ranging from manpower and financial resources to logistical capabilities, put North Korea’s military 34th out of some 145 countries rated. The U.S. military was ranked first and South Korea sixth in the private survey.
Gen. Martin said there have been other instances in recent U.S. military history where commanders went into a fight lacking full information about the enemy.
“For example, with the Taliban, we could make an educated assumption that they had SA-7s,” he said, referring to the surface-to-air missiles that a single militant could carry on his shoulder. “If you’re going to infiltrate forces early on, whether it be rotary or fixed wing [aircraft], you do have to account for that threat. That’s no different than in North Korea. My assumption is they have something similar, SA-7s or something even more lethal.”
“I don’t know if they have full battalions or half-battalions. It’s too hard to know,” he said of the North Korean military. “So you plan for full battalions that you’re going to face.”
‘Arrogance kills’
By the numbers alone, the North Korean military is one of the world’s most formidable, with a force of about 1.2 million personnel, according to recent estimates by the Council on Foreign Relations. In addition to its nuclear arsenal, It also has a robust ballistic missile program and has launched over 100 missile tests since 2022.
One such launch last year saw a missile travel over Japan, sparking short-lived panic in the country.
Pyongyang hasn’t tested a nuclear weapon since 2017, though its nuclear program remains the biggest wild card in any hypothetical clash.
In the event of a collapse of the North Korean regime, U.S. military personnel would play a central part in securing Pyongyang’s nuclear stockpile. Army forces, in concert with South Korean partners, would likely take the lead in securing strategically important nuclear sites, while American Special Forces may be tasked with identifying and locating any North Korean figures who may be in positions of influence in the event of a power vacuum, officials said.
Many are expecting a destabilizing new nuclear test by Pyongyang in the near future, after diplomatic contacts between Washington and Pyongyang evaporated in the wake of President Trump’s unsuccessful push to negotiate a sweeping denuclearization with Mr. Kim in 2018 and 2019.
The three extraordinary face-to-face meetings between the two men, however, ultimately failed to produce a deal that would end North Korea’s nuclear program in exchange for relief from crushing economic sanctions. The Biden administration’s stated goal is to resume diplomatic engagement with the reclusive nation with the eventual goal of denuclearizing the Korean peninsula, though there has been little apparent progress over the past two years, and tensions remain high on the Korean peninsula.
Those tensions were at the top of the agenda last month when South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol visited Mr. Biden in Washington. The two nations also announced a new, upgraded joint nuclear deterrence plan, which includes the impending docking of a U.S. nuclear-powered submarine in South Korea for the first time in 40 years.
But for all the planning and preparation the U.S. and South Korea might do, specialists agree with Gen. Martin that there are a host of unknowns about how the North Korean military would behave in a fight.
The Kim regime’s trademark over-the-top rhetoric when faced with challenges from the U.S. and its allies offers few clues to what the North Korean military is capable of and how it would react if it felt the future of the regime was in danger. State-controlled media in Pyongyang repeatedly stress the unity of the military and the people, highlighting repeatedly the army’s role in building houses, clearing roads and organizing disaster relief for civilians.
“All the miracles and achievements brought about one after another in the country in recent years are the products born of kindred affection between the people and the service personnel and the great army-people unity,” Naenara, the official web portal of the North Korean government, noted in a typical commentary recently.
David Maxwell, a senior fellow at the think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that the North Korean armed forces emphasize loyalty to Mr. Kim above all else, including traditional command-and-control structures or empowering leaders at lower levels.
“While we believe this is a recipe for failure in any military, we just can’t know for sure how the troops will perform when North Korea launches an attack,” he said. “And we have to be careful of mirror imaging or projecting our knowledge and beliefs on the enemy. I personally do believe that the North Korean system is doomed to failure, but I am not willing to bet on it. And I agree with the idea that we must prepare for the worst case.”
“We need to be cautious and properly prepare our military. Arrogance kills,” Mr. Maxwell said. “I would rather assume a relatively capable [North Korean military] and be proved wrong rather than assuming an easy war that could lead to catastrophic results.”
As North Korea pours more and more money into its military even as its citizens face food shortages and a strangled economy, Gen. Martin said the toll of human suffering on the peninsula is immense.
“How do you have this rogue nation that continues to advance high-end weapons programs, who has self-imposed a blockade, and still keeps moving forward at the expense of their people? It defies any kind of understanding for me,” he told The Times. “It breaks your heart. From what I know, it breaks my heart.”
• Ben Wolfgang can be reached at bwolfgang@washingtontimes.com.