BANGKOK, Thailand — For traditional allies, international organizations and countries willing to challenge his “America First” foreign policy, the election of Donald Trump for another four years in the White House has already produced some nervous re-positioning and sleepless nights.
But the jitters are not universal. Mr. Trump’s victory may bring some relief for the leaders of three authoritarian Southeast Asian nations caught in the influence struggle between the U.S. and China — Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia.
Mr. Trump’s return is expected to bring a new focus on security, economic promise and national interest, an easier standard for many countries in the region to meet.
“In his first term, [Mr. Trump] did not exhibit interest in the promotion of democracy or human rights,” Kantathi Suphamongkhon, a Thai former foreign minister, said in an interview. “This tendency is expected to continue.
“Governments in Southeast Asia with human rights or democracy issues will feel less or no pressure on this front,” Mr. Kantathi said.
Those leaders could expect a much less confrontational Washington responding to their countries’ lack of fair elections, free speech and other civil liberties which are often highlighted by Democratic administrations.
Asian leaders are also presumably adjusting their diplomatic behavior and style to respond to Mr. Trump’s often erratic statements and get past the bluster. Getting on the new president’s good side is seen as a supreme diplomatic imperative.
“Under [Mr. Trump’s] strongman leadership style, a personal relationship with him has heightened value,” Mr. Kantathi said. “Leaders with skills in complimenting Trump will benefit. Charm offensive skills will have enhanced value.”
Many in the region say they welcome Mr. Trump’s more transactional approach to foreign policy, and “a determination to work towards a trade balance with the U.S. will be seen in a positive light,” Mr. Kantathi said.
Welcoming a trade war
While global corporations and investor markets wait with concern as Mr. Trump returns to the scene, a possible Washington-Beijing trade war may actually benefit Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and other rising Asian powers, analysts say.
Ambitious, low-wage Southeast Asian nations are hoping to replace tariffed Chinese manufactured exports to the U.S., especially goods involving automobiles and electronics, if Mr. Trump carries through on threats to levy stiff entry duties on a vast range of Chinese productes.
During Mr. Trump’s first term as president, frosty trade relations between Washington and Beijing resulted in the relocation of companies’ offices and businesses from China to Southeast Asia, to avoid financial barriers including tariffs and quotas on “made-in-China” goods and services.
“Cambodia could be a major winner if the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump goes through with his threat to drastically hike tariffs on Chinese goods,” Phnom Penh-based Khmer Times online reported this week. “U.S. companies are already planning to shift production to [Cambodia] from China as they look for alternative sources of goods.”
Cambodia Chamber of Commerce Vice-President Lim Heng told the newspaper, “This threat will push Chinese companies to invest more in Cambodia. Chinese companies and regional companies will come here and invest in Cambodia and export to the U.S., Europe and other places.”
Cambodian exports of clothing, electrical goods, raw materials and travel accessories could benefit from high U.S. tariffs against China.
But many acknowledge a downside, dreading having to make a push-comes-to-shove choice between exclusively backing the U.S. or China if those two giants battle.
“The Thai government must also be careful to not be perceived as having an unfairly close alliance with China, or be a hub for Chinese investors, in a way that could undermine the image of Thai exports,” a Bangkok Post editorial warned on Nov. 8.
“We want to be loved by China. We want to be loved by America,” said Thailand’s Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan in September.
Some in Asia, however, are betting that a Trump administration grappling with wars and hostilities scattered across the world, will find itself in need of low-maintenance, high-value friends and allies.
Southeast Asia “now has more bargaining power than before, and sees that the United States will interfere in the conflict in the South China Sea. Therefore, America’s position is not as strong as before,” Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science lecturer at Rangsit University, said in an interview.
China appears to be gaining influence, even in the short four years Mr. Trump was out of power.
Mr. Trump “should know that in recent years, Chinese capital has had a huge influence in [Southeast Asian] countries, both legally and illegally, and many countries are happy to accept it because of their geopolitical location that is very close to China, coupled with the fact that many countries have Chinese descent,” Mr. Wanwichit said. “In terms of culture or tradition, it is easy to accept being Chinese.”
Economic realities are re-writing the continent’s political landscape. Once hostile to Indonesia for its ties to the U.S. and its history of anti-communist purges and extrajudicial killings, China today is implementing a $2 billion government-backed loan to construct a Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Rail (HSR) Project linking the two Indonesian cities.
Mr. Trump “should understand that because of the rise of China in the [Southeast Asian] region, and what appears to be Washington’s diminished interest there, several Asian countries have increasingly hedged or sought to create balance between China and the U.S. This includes Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia,” Paul Chambers, a Southeast Asian security affairs specialist at Naresuan University, said in an interview.
Asian countries which perceive China as unfriendly may be welcoming Mr. Trump’s embrace and return to the presidency.
“Given Trump’s demonstrated anti-China policy in his first term, his return to office in 2024 points to more economic and security benefits for countries feeling bullied by China in Asia — namely Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Japan and South Korea,” Mr. Chambers said.
“Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia are the frontline states in the eyes of the United States as a result of China’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea,” Kasit Piromya, another Thai former foreign minister, said in an interview.
Some fear China will be reluctant to shutter its factories overproducing relatively cheap items, even in the face of U.S. tariffs, leading to fears the goods will seek other markets.
If so, the resulting unsold Chinese goods could be pushed south and dumped in Thailand, financially challenging Thai-owned businesses and industries which are already competing with China’s exported inexpensive goods.
Tight Thai ties
Washington and Bangkok have enjoyed close diplomatic, economic and especially military relations in recent years, relations which are expected to continue under Mr. Trump.
“If Trump offers positive inducements to the Thai military, relations will improve,” Mr. Chambers said.
Thai officials are already trying to lay the groundwork to minimize the disruptions of the abrupt shift in power and policy in Washington.
“Regardless of who becomes the next U.S. president, our mutual goals and cooperation remain steadfast,” Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa said on Nov. 6. “Our relationship with the U.S. is robust, consistent, and longstanding.”
Thailand, a non-NATO U.S. treaty ally, has long tried to balance its relations with the U.S. and China, citing unique benefits each superpower offers.
Mr. Trump’s return to the White House coincides with the Pentagon’s hopes to sell Lockheed Martin’s F-16 warplanes to Thailand, against strong competition from Sweden’s Saab-made Gripen E/F fighter aircraft. Boeing is building eight AH-6 “Little Bird” combat attack helicopters for the Royal Thai Army and will train Thai pilots at the U.S. Army Yuma Proving Ground at Mesa, Arizona.
If Mr. Trump takes a hard line against Beijing and its friends, countries such as Cambodia could come under pressure for their close financial relations with major Chinese investors who have sought opportunities in the country’s real estate, natural resources, tourism and other sectors.
Relations between the U.S. and Cambodia are already strained by Washington’s criticism of Phnom Penh’s domestic political issues and lack of human rights, which Cambodia regards as U.S. interference.
The U.S. also suspects Cambodia is allowing China to help expand Ream Naval Base, on Cambodia’s southern coast along the Gulf of Thailand, into a strategic Chinese military base, which Phnom Penh denies.
Even in Phnom Penh, officials have moved quickly to get on the good side of the new administration.
Apparently hoping to improve relations with Mr. Trump, Cambodian Senate President and former Prime Minister Hun Sen optimistically posted on his Facebook account:
“Before the election, Donald Trump sent a message to the American people and around the world about loving peace, war-hating, [and] so-called pacifism.
“Trump’s victory shows that Americans love peace rather than having an outright war in Ukraine and Israel,” Mr. Hun Sen wrote.
• Richard S. Ehrlich can be reached at rehrlich@washingtontimes.com.