SEOUL, South Korea – Japan and Seoul are preparing for the advent of the second Donald Trump administration, reviewing alliance issues and defense spending, mulling economic risks — even fretting over their leaders’ golf handicaps.
There are reasons for these concerns, which are evident in political messaging, media editorials and coffee-shop chatter in both capitals. Mr. Trump’s 2017-2021 term in office and his recent election pledges are cause for jitters.
Unease relates to both countries’ statuses as U.S. treaty allies and as industrial powerhouses with America as their leading export buyers.
Both are key players in semiconductors — Japan in upstream materials provision, Korea in downstream fabrication. Chip trade with China became hugely contentious during Mr. Trump’s first administration.
Seoul and Tokyo provide the first two lines of America’s echeloned, cross-Pacific defense, while situating forward-deployed GIs stationed in the countries on the doorsteps of China, North Korea and Russia.
Both U.S. allies were shaken during the first Trump administration when the iconoclastic president deprioritized strategic geographies and demanded increased financial remuneration from both for their U.S. garrisons.
His long-held “America First” beliefs, and his electoral promises of widespread tariffs, put the two export-based economies, both of which prospered via free trade and open U.S. markets, on notice.
Both leaders are under pressure to align with Mr. Trump. On paper, they appear well positioned.
Both are conservatives, with strong stances on security at a time when Washington looks primed to re-pivot toward Asia. Mr. Trump has vowed to swiftly halt the Ukraine War, while his nominee to head the CIA, John Ratcliffe, is a noted China hawk.
Plain sailing is not guaranteed. While Mr. Trump won a strong mandate to govern with his surprise wipeout of opponent Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol are both unpopular leaders without parliamentary majorities.
Mr. Ishiba is heading the first minority Tokyo government in three decades, having lost his party’s powerful position in a snap election last month. Mr. Yoon’s approval ratings plunged to a record low of 17% last week. These weaknesses raise red flags.
“Trump prefers to deal with strong leaders such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whether they lead democracies or autocracies,” the Japan Institute of National Fundamentals warned in a Nov. 11 column.
Japanese jitters
“I felt our conversation was, in a nutshell, outstandingly friendly,” Mr. Ishiba said after his first, post-election call with Mr. Trump, the premier’s office reported. “My impression is that Mr. Trump is someone with whom I can speak candidly from now, with no holds barred and no need to mince words.”
Tokyo media, however, fretted that the call lasted just five minutes — “much shorter that those with other world leaders,” according to the Japan Times.
Mr. Ishiba said he and Mr. Trump agreed to meet, “at the earliest possible time.” In that meeting, several issues may raise their heads.
A former defense minister, Mr. Ishiba is a security hawk who has vowed to secure funding to elevate Japan’s defense spending to the NATO standard of 2 percent of GDP.
That synchs with Trump’s messaging — particularly as the world’s G4 economy is buying, according to the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency, 400 U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles for $2.35 billion.
However, Mr. Ishiba has famously floated the idea of an “Asian NATO,” an idea that is out of whack with Mr. Trump’s misgivings about NATO.
Mr. Ishiba also hopes to negotiate more equal terms for the current status of forces agreement which covers U.S. Forces Japan — the biggest garrison of GI’s stationed on foreign soil.
A hot-button business issue is Nippon Steel’s stalled acquisition of U.S. Steel.
Green-lighted in April by shareholders of the troubled U.S. firm and widely supported by pundits and local politicians, the $15 billion deal was opposed by unionists, then stymied by the Biden administration on economic security grounds.
That decision raised eyebrows in Japan, which considers itself a solid U.S. ally.
Nippon Steel plans to finalize the acquisition by the end of 2024, but Mr. Trump has said he would nix the buyout, now pending review under Washington’s Committee on Investment in the U.S.
If the deal founders, “without a legitimate reason or proper procedures,” CEO Eiji Hashimoto said Tuesday, “we would consider taking legal action against the U.S. government.”
With Mr. Trump sensitive to uneven trade, Japan looks vulnerable.
The U.S. overtook China as Japan’s leading export destination for the first time in four years in 2023, with the year’s trade surplus with the U.S. standing at $133 billion — a 40% increase from Mr. Trump’s first term, finance media The Nikkei reported.
One route to Mr. Trump’s heart may be golf. Late Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe presented Mr. Trump with a gold-plated club, initiating a chummy, first-name relationship. Mr. Ishiba, however, has reportedly not played in decades.
Korean concerns
His counterpart in Seoul gave up golf – locally associated with elitism, power-broking and sleaze – eight years ago, but has, since the U.S. election result, taken up the game again, the presidential office revealed this week.
“People close to President (sic) Trump” informed Mr. Yoon that the two “will have good chemistry,” the president told a post-election press conference. However, Mr. Trump called South Korea “a free rider” during his campaign, and Mr. Yoon has reason to be wary.
Mr. Yoon has shown zero interest in negotiating with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Mr. Trump smashed decades of diplomatic precedent by not only meeting with but even striking up a bromance with Mr. Kim in 2018.
Pyongyang has sent munitions, troops — and most recently, long-range, self-propelled howitzers — to support Moscow’s war on Kyiv. Seoul policy is paralyzed: No measures have been announced to counter North Korea’s unprecedented actions.
A diplomatic source said Seoul feels compelled to sound out Mr. Trump before taking any action.
Mr. Trump’s pledge to drop tariffs on all imports leaves trade-dependent Korea dangerously exposed.
In 2023, the USA overtook China as the largest single buyer of Korean exports reversing a 20-year trend. In the same year, according to official data, Korea had a record trade surplus with the U.S. of $44 billion.
Koreans also recall Mr. Trump demanding a renegotiation of a 2007 bilateral free-trade deal, which he claimed was unequal. The tweaked deal entered force in 2019.
Against this backdrop, Seoul is preparing key messaging.
On Nov. 12, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs posted an online brochure, “Korea Matters to the U.S.” on X, talking up defense and economic ties.
Regarding the “blood-forged” bilateral alliance, it cites Seoul’s 2.8 percent of GDP national defense spending, its acquisitions of U.S. arms and a polled U.S. belief that the alliance helps keep Americans safe.
It states that Korea Inc. is the biggest single greenfield investor in the U.S., supplying Americans with 470,000 jobs in key fields, including chips.
With Mr. Trump famously having a short attention span, the brochure’s points are brief and punchy.
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.