As election results began streaming in throughout the country Tuesday, the races that will determine control of the Senate were more likely to provide a clear picture sooner than the outcome of the hotly contested House majority.
Republicans are in a good position to flip the Senate, which Democrats currently control with a 51-49 split.
The GOP easily picked up the Senate seat in West Virginia that is open due to Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin III retiring. West Virginia Republican Gov. Jim Justice did not face a serious challenge and easily won the Senate seat over Democrat Glenn Elliott. The Associated Press called the race for him as soon as polls closed in the Mountain State at 7:30 p.m.
After that pickup, Republicans need just one more seat to secure the majority, assuming all of their incumbents running this cycle win.
Florida GOP Sen. Rick Scott sailed to reelection. He was leading former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 11 points when The Associated Press called the race at 8 p.m. The only other GOP senator considered in any danger of losing to a Democrat is Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, but he is also in a strong position to win.
Nebraska GOP Sen. Deb Fischer of Nebraska also faces a tighter-than-expected race, but an upset there would be an anomaly in terms of how it would impact Senate control because her challenger, Dan Osborn, is an independent who said he would not caucus with either party in the Senate.
Republicans see Democratic-held Senate seats in the red states of Montana and Ohio as their best pickup opportunities, especially with former President Donald Trump on the ballot to help drive GOP turnout.
Montana Sen. Jon Tester has been trailing his Republican opponent Tim Sheey, a retired Navy SEAL and aerospace millionaire, in voter surveys for months now. Polls close in the Treasure State at 10 p.m. EST.
In Ohio, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican candidate Bernie Moreno, a Colombian-born car dealership owner, have been effectively tied in the polls for weeks, but the closing polls have shown Mr. Moreno with a slight edge.
If Republicans lose in Ohio, they still have other Senate pickup opportunities in the blue-wall states. In Pennsylvania, three-term Democratic Sen. Bob Casey was facing a strong challenge from Republican David McCormick. In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers were vying for an open seat created by the retirement of Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow.
In Wisconsin, two-term incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin was battling Republican Eric Hovde.
Arizona and Nevada Senate races are also competitive, but political forecasters consider them more of a reach for Republicans.
The GOP had hoped to put reliably blue Maryland into play with former Gov. Larry Hogan as its candidate, but he has not been able to get close in the polls to Democratic candidate Angela Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County executive.
In the battle for the House majority, conventional wisdom in Washington points to Democrats flipping control of the lower chamber by a narrow margin. But House Republicans have remained confident they will not only hold onto their razor-thin majority, but will expand on it.
Democrats only need a net gain of four seats to win the House majority, and there were roughly two dozen races across the country in serious contention.
Most of the major races that will decide which party controls the House are in New York and California, where vulnerable Republican incumbents are trying to ward off well-funded Democratic challengers. Turnout for Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race could aid Democrats, given that most of the competitive House districts are ones that President Biden carried in 2020.
Democrats are favored to regain at least two seats in New York from freshman Republican incumbent Reps. Brandon Williams and Anthony D’Esposito, who had flipped their districts from Democrats in 2022. Polls were closing in the Empire State at 9 p.m.
There are three other Republican-held seats and one Democratic district in New York considered in play to varying degrees.
After pickups in California in 2022 that helped secure the GOP’s majority, Republicans are now on defense in the Golden State. The state is home to seven seats held by Republican incumbents considered in play — a few of them toss-ups — that Democrats hope to sweep up in the blue state.
Polls close in California at 11 p.m. EST and mail-in ballots can be counted much later if they were postmarked by Election Day, so any definitive results from the crucial races coming out Tuesday night are slim.
Two races that Democrats are salivating over are in California’s 13th district, where Republican Rep. John Duarte is in a tight rematch against Democrat Adam Gray after narrowly defeating him by under 600 votes in 2022, and the state’s 27th district, where Republican Rep. Mike Garcia is in a recently redrawn district that is now home to more Democratic voters than Republicans.
• Lindsey McPherson can be reached at lmcpherson@washingtontimes.com.
• Alex Miller can be reached at amiller@washingtontimes.com.