CAIRO — A series of high-stakes meetings this month is expected to reshape regional politics and global alliances, with Saudi Arabia emerging as a key player in mediating both Arab and international disputes.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has left the conservative kingdom with a severe case of policy whiplash. On trade, energy, even golf, Mr. Trump is far more open to dealing with Saudi Arabia’s leaders than was former President Biden. But on some big security issues, including the question of relations with Israel and the political fate of the Palestinians in Gaza, Washington and Riyadh appear to be on a collision course.
A senior political consultant in Riyadh told The Washington Times that these meetings signal a fundamental shift in global power dynamics. Jeddah is rumored as the site for a possible meeting between Mr. Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, marking what many see as a turning point in Russo-American relations. Before that, a mini-Arab summit in Riyadh this week is focusing on the desperate situation in Gaza and Mr. Trump’s stunning proposal for an American takeover of the Palestinian enclave.
“These discussions are about reordering international relations, with Saudi Arabia emerging as a key regional mediator,” the consultant said. With Islamism subdued and Arab socialism nearly extinct, he added, “Soon, it will just be a matter of everyone having their price,” suggesting that political settlements in the region will increasingly come down to strategic negotiations.
Meanwhile, Arab states are also focused on their own Gaza reconstruction plan — one that does not endorse Mr. Trump’s idea of evicting the Gaza Palestinians to other Arab countries. Saudi Arabia is host to Friday’s to coordinate financial commitments, while an emergency Arab League summit in Cairo on March 4 will serve as a political platform for Arab nations to unite against any forced displacement of Palestinians.
For decades, Riyadh has maintained that normalization with Israel can only follow a just resolution of the Palestinian issue — with Gaza’s 2.2 million residents remaining on their ancestral land. Arab officials have consistently rejected proposals, like Mr. Trump’s, that would resettle Palestinians from Gaza elsewhere. While some in Washington see Mr. Trump’s proposals as a bold challenge to the status quo, Arab leaders dismiss them as impractical and politically unfeasible.
Most notably Jordan, which has official ties with Israel and is among the most pro-American states in the Arab world, has rejected Mr. Trump’s idea, even after an Oval Office visit earlier this month by King Abdullah II.
Initially planned as a limited gathering among three Arab states, the Riyadh meeting has expanded to include the full membership of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), along with key partners Egypt and Jordan. Officials say this expansion underscores a united Arab commitment to defending Palestinian sovereignty while pursuing a pragmatic approach to rebuilding Gaza.
Rebuilding Gaza
At the core of Riyadh’s agenda is a Gulf-funded reconstruction plan for Gaza. GCC fiscal sponsorship is expected to fund major infrastructure projects needed to rebuild the battered enclave after Israel’s 15-month war. In addition, Saudi officials, in coordination with Qatari, Egyptian, and Emirati security agencies, are pressuring Hamas to reduce its control over Gaza in a maneuver dubbed “Tanahi.”
Former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed explained that the goal is not to eliminate Hamas entirely, as Israel would like to do, but to have it step back temporarily, allowing reconstruction to proceed without forced displacement.
“This meeting is about logistics and financing – a practical blueprint to rebuild Gaza,” he said, noting that while Mr. Trump’s relationship with de facto Saudi ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has strengthened U.S.-Saudi ties, recent White House proposals regarding Gaza have created tensions.
The crown prince “isn’t operating in a vacuum. There’s a complex chain of decision-making in Saudi Arabia, and ultimately it comes down to strategic interests,” he added.
But Riyadh’s approach comes at a time when Saudi Arabia faces mounting domestic challenges.
With the crown prince’s modernizing “Vision 2030” deadline approaching, the kingdom is under pressure to deliver on large-scale infrastructure projects, manage costs and attract foreign investment in a bid to diversify the economy. High oil revenues are critical for funding these initiatives, yet Mr. Trump’s recent calls for lower oil prices threaten to disrupt Saudi Arabia’s economic planning.
“The Saudis know that their long-term agenda relies on high oil prices,” Mr. Melamed said, emphasizing that Saudi policymakers have worked to balance these pressures by cultivating relationships with China, Russia, and other global actors.
Oil and strategy
Ali Bakir, a professor at Qatar University’s Ibn Khaldun Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, warned that pressuring the Saudis to push oil prices lower ignores the kingdom’s broader strategy.
“Pressuring Riyadh to reduce oil prices overlooks the fact that high prices are central to Saudi Arabia’s strategic vision – funding economic transformation programs such as Vision 2030 and underpinning its broader geopolitical ambitions,” he said.
Mr. Bakir argued that Mr. Trump’s accusations — blaming Saudi Arabia for worsening regional conflicts by refusing to cut oil prices — fit into a broader effort to transform Middle East alliances and push for greater Arab diplomatic recognition of Israel.
“Such demands ignore the kingdom’s economic imperatives,” he explained, adding that high oil revenues are essential not only for immediate profits but also for financing long-term projects and maintaining Saudi influence.
Mr. Trump, in turn, has accused Riyadh of fueling the Russia-Ukraine war by refusing to lower oil prices, arguing lower prices would force Russia, a major energy exporter, to the bargaining table as its revenues dwindle. These opposing views reflect a broader divide: Mr. Trump sees high oil prices as a source of instability and a diplomatic bargaining chip, while Saudi leaders consider them the foundation of their long-term strategic vision.
Saudi Arabia’s focus on economic transformation is further highlighted by NEOM, the $500 billion high-tech city designed as the centerpiece of the kingdom’s drive to modernize the economy, improve its worldwide image, and diversify away from heavy reliance on energy exports. By contrast, estimates suggest that rebuilding Gaza will cost between $30 billion and $40 billion and could take up to two decades. This disparity underscores Saudi Arabia’s challenge of balancing long-term investments with immediate humanitarian concerns.
Egypt, also a major recipient of U.S. aid and military supplies, has taken a firm stance against Palestinian displacement proposals.
Egyptian officials recently briefed Secretary of State Marco Rubio, stating that their military rejects Mr. Trump’s plan to relocate Palestinians from Gaza. They warned that mass population movements could jeopardize the security of the Suez Canal and destabilize Sinai’s Bedouin tribes, many of whom are sympathetic to the Palestinian cause and some with ties to Islamist militant groups.
Egypt’s position is clear: it will only accept a limited number of Palestinians on humanitarian grounds. In a strong signal, Egypt’s Third Field Army — responsible for security along the Gaza border — declared a state of high alert on Wednesday, signaling readiness to counter any forced displacement efforts or unilateral Israeli actions.
Stark contrast
The emergency Arab League summit in Cairo that kicked off Friday presents a stark contrast to Riyadh’s technical session. While Riyadh’s meeting focuses on securing financial commitments for Gaza’s reconstruction, the Cairo summit is a broad political gathering aimed at issuing a formal condemnation of any displacement plan.
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, speaking alongside Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, reinforced Cairo’s position.
“We stressed that it was important for the international community to adopt and support a plan for reconstructing Gaza without displacing Palestinians – I repeat, without displacing Palestinians from their lands,” he said, urging full implementation of the current Hamas-Israel three-phase ceasefire agreement, continued hostage and prisoner exchanges, and unimpeded humanitarian aid.
Egypt is developing a phased reconstruction blueprint: an initial 10-to-20-year period focusing on rebuilding, followed by a longer-term strategy for establishing a permanent two-state solution. While Hamas has signaled openness to a long-term truce, it remains unwilling to relinquish full political control — a stance backed by Qatar, even as Fatah and the Palestinian Authority push for exclusive governance in Gaza.
Assistant Secretary General of the Arab League Hossam Zaki told Egypt’s ON television network that the summit aims to unite senior Arab leaders in a common stance. “We need a robust, top-level event that produces a unified Arab stance on the resettlement issue and the broader question of Palestinian rights,” he said.
Even as Arab leaders coordinate their response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has fueled further controversy. In a recent interview, he suggested that Saudi Arabia had ample land to resettle Palestinians, sparking outrage in Riyadh.
Fatah spokesperson Hussein Hamayel dismissed the suggestion outright, stating that “Fatah will not accept any international or regional arrangements that seek to reshape the Palestinian landscape outside the framework of the PLO, the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.”
A Saudi Shura Council member echoed this sentiment in Okaz, arguing that U.S. foreign policy was enabling “the illegal occupation of sovereign land and the ethnic cleansing of its inhabitants.”
As the region convenes the back-to-back summits, the message from Arab leaders is clear: Any attempt to forcibly relocate Palestinians will be met with unified resistance. With Riyadh’s technical session focused on funding and logistics, and Cairo’s summit dedicated to delivering a diplomatic rebuke to forced displacement, Arab states are aligning their positions to influence both Washington and global policymakers.
Hesham Alghannam sums up the prevailing view: “Netanyahu’s suggestion that Saudi Arabia ‘make room for Gaza’ is not just impractical. It is a denial of Palestinian rights. Gaza’s people must remain in their homeland, with reconstruction efforts aimed at stability, not displacement.”