Civilians across Ukraine heard the familiar wailing of air raid sirens Sunday night and again took refuge in metro stations, underground shelters and dimly lit basements as they braced for yet another massive Russian aerial assault.
By Monday morning, Moscow had unleashed 426 Shahed-type explosive drones and 24 missiles against civilian and urban areas, causing widespread destruction across multiple regions. In the capital, Kyiv, Russian drones hit a metro station, a residential building and a kindergarten.
“A 12-year-old child was injured,” Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said. “This was one of the worst barrages the capital has faced in months.”
A few hours later, Washington signaled to Ukraine and its European allies and, perhaps more important, to Russian President Vladimir Putin that the nightly bombardments of civilians in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities had captured the Trump administration’s attention.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth joined a virtual meeting of about 50 countries supporting Ukraine on Monday afternoon. Last month, while President Trump worked to wring a peace deal out of Mr. Putin, Mr. Hegseth skipped the June meeting of the alliance, known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.
Mr. Trump has since expressed growing frustration with the Russian leader, who has consistently ramped up his assaults on Ukraine, seemingly in defiance of the U.S. president’s entreaties.
Last week, Mr. Trump threatened to impose steep “secondary” tariffs on Moscow and gave Mr. Putin 50 days to strike a ceasefire deal with Ukraine.
Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are now planned for Wednesday in Istanbul, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Monday, although the Kremlin said the two countries are “diametrically opposed” on how to end the war. Two previous rounds of negotiations resulted in only a prisoner swap.
The Monday attack on Kyiv, which lasted a staggering 10 hours and killed two people, was part of a broader and intensifying Russian bombing campaign that has grown in scope and lethality over recent weeks. Ukrainian air defense systems, already strained by ammunition shortages and the sheer volume of incoming threats, struggle to contain the onslaught.
“Russia’s attacks are always against humanity,” Mr. Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram Monday. “A kindergarten, residential buildings, and other civilian infrastructure burned in Kyiv.”
The timing of the attack once more raised questions about Moscow’s intentions. Ukrainian and foreign officials were scheduled to meet in Kyiv. On Monday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot called for increased international pressure on Russia after witnessing the destruction caused by the airstrikes.
“This is why the massive package of sanctions we adopted at the European level last Thursday is welcome,” Mr. Barrot said. “It increases pressure on Vladimir Putin, increases the cost of this unbelievable war.”
A strategic shift
Military analysts point to a worrying shift in Russia’s strategy. The Kremlin has moved in recent months from sporadic missile attacks to industrial-scale, drone-swarm bombardments, enabled by a major ramp-up in domestic drone manufacturing.
In a recent Atlantic Council piece, Mykola Bielieskov, a military analyst and research fellow at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, described the change as starting a “new and more dangerous phase” in the war.
Late last year, Russia launched about 2,000 drones monthly. That figure has more than doubled to more than 4,000, Mr. Bielieskov wrote early this month. “It is now commonplace for Russia to launch hundreds of drones in a single night.” Many of these drones, now produced domestically, have been enhanced with artificial intelligence navigation systems, video targeting and thermobaric warheads that have doubled their explosive payload to about 200 pounds.
Meanwhile, Russia’s shift toward full domestic production has been supported by Iranian technology transfers and, according to Ukrainian officials, has benefited from technical support from China and labor assistance from North Korea.
Beijing is accused of supplying critical components, and Pyongyang is reportedly preparing to send workers to drone manufacturing facilities in eastern Russia.
As a result, Russia’s drone penetration rate into Ukrainian airspace has nearly tripled. The Financial Times reported that about 15% of the drones breached Ukraine’s defenses and reached their targets from April to June, compared with just 5% in the first quarter of the year. These coordinated attacks often pair drones with ballistic and cruise missiles, a saturation tactic designed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.
A race against time
Despite recent announcements of additional military aid, Ukraine’s partners remain slow to respond. This month, Mr. Trump pledged to provide Patriot air defense systems. Still, as geopolitical consultant Joshua Kroeker notes, the cost of the systems is expected to fall on European and NATO allies, not the United States.
“Though 17 Patriot systems seems to be the number floated around, there is little to actually back that up at the time,” Mr. Kroeker told The Washington Times. “Germany will pay for two systems and Norway for one, but who will pay for the other 14 remains an open question.”
New Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal urged allies at the virtual meeting Monday to speed up deliveries of American air defense systems.
“I request the U.S. to make these weapons available for purchase, and our European partners to extend all the needed financing for their procurement,” Mr. Shmyhal, who until recently served as prime minister, said as the meeting began.
Mr. Kroeker emphasized that while Patriots are vital for stopping missiles, they are not suited for countering Shahed drones. “Ukraine is in desperate need for interceptor drones. As drone attacks now number in the high 700s per attack, combined with AI technology, new flight patterns and a doubling of explosives, interceptor drones and systems will need to be produced and delivered en masse.”
Ukrainian air defenses rely on a patchwork of Soviet-era guns, short-range systems and expensive Western-supplied missiles, a layered approach that is becoming increasingly unsustainable.
Mr. Bielieskov said cheap and mobile interceptor drones are the most cost-effective solution. Although some are being developed by Ukraine’s defense tech sector, large-scale deployment of such systems remains months away.
“There is no time to waste,” Mr. Bielieskov said. “Kyiv’s partners can contribute by supplying interceptor drones and financing the manufacture of domestic models.”
Kyiv’s retaliation
Ukraine has responded to the intensifying drone war in kind by increasing the frequency of its long-range strikes targeting Russian airfields. Over the weekend, Ukrainian drones attacked facilities near Moscow, prompting temporary closures of multiple airports and disrupting civilian air traffic.
On Monday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said it had shot down 117 Ukrainian drones, including 30 near the Russian capital.
Although symbolically powerful, the strikes are unlikely to deter Moscow’s escalating terror campaign. As Mr. Bielieskov said, Russia has moved much of its drone infrastructure far from the front lines, making pre-launch destruction nearly impossible. Moreover, drones do not require fixed airfields, further complicating retaliatory actions.
As Russia’s bombing campaign grows more sophisticated and deadly, the balance of the war increasingly hinges on whether Ukraine and its Western partners can adapt quickly enough to the evolving threat.
• This article is based in part on wire service reports.