Despite a raging war, both Russia and Ukraine have seen economic growth in 2024 — about 3.6% for Moscow and 3% for Kyiv — British officials said, though Russia’s increase was likely driven by government spending heavily tilted toward the defense sector.

Ukraine’s GDP growth continues the trend of wartime recovery after the country’s economy contracted by almost 30% after Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Ukraine recorded a real economic growth of about 5% in 2023.

The International Monetary Fund has forecast an annual inflation rate of 5.8% in 2024, down from a peak of about 20% in 2022, U.K. military officials said Monday on X in their latest assessment of the battlefield in Ukraine.

An increase in government spending in Russia will “highly likely” intensify existing inflationary pressures in the economy with an annual inflation rate of 7.9% forecast for 2024. Economic growth in Russia is expected to slow in 2025 due to pressure from international sanctions, labor shortages and inflation, officials said.

Russian defense spending is expected to increase further in 2025, accounting for about 32% of total budget expenditures, while areas such as government spending on social services are facing stiff cuts next year. In Ukraine, defense spending is expected to account for about 60% of the country’s state expenditures in 2025, British analysts estimated.

• Mike Glenn can be reached at mglenn@washingtontimes.com.