Republicans are favored to take back control of the Senate in the November election, likely winning just enough seats to reverse Democrats’ current 51-49 majority.
The chamber, however, is expected to remain narrowly divided but in Republicans’ favor.
“Republicans are the clear favorite at this point to win the Senate, just in the map,” Jessica Taylor, who analyzes Senate races for The Cook Political Report, told The Washington Times.
Senators serve six-year terms, and a third of the chamber is up for reelection this year. The 2024 map started tough for Democrats, who must defend far more competitive seats than Republicans — including in the red states of Montana, Ohio and West Virginia.
Sen. Joe Manchin, who caucuses with the Democrats but switched his party to independent, is retiring rather than suffer a likely defeat against popular West Virginia GOP Gov. Jim Justice.
Democrats have written that state off as they desperately try to defend their red-state incumbent Sens. Jon Tester in Montana and Sherrod Brown in Ohio.
With the vice president casting the tie-breaking Senate vote, Republicans only need to win the White House and pick up one seat — or pick up two seats — to take the majority.
Montana and Ohio are “by far the lowest hanging fruit,” as Republicans seek an outright majority, and “the lion’s share of spending” has been directed toward those races, said Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections.
AdImpact, a company that tracks political advertising, said total spending on Senate races surpassed $2 billion this week.
The five most expensive Senate races are Ohio ($463 million), Pennsylvania ($319 million), Montana ($265 million), Wisconsin ($183 million) and Michigan ($164 million).
Pennsylvania topped Montana in part because advertising reservations cost more in the Philadelphia metropolitan area than in Billings, for example. The Republican Senate candidate in Pennsylvania, Dave McCormick, the former CEO of the world’s largest hedge fund, also brought in a lot of money through his financial connections.
The spending reflects Republicans’ five best flip opportunities, but not in the same order.
“Montana is the tipping point state for the majority,” said Ms. Taylor, noting it is looking increasingly harder for Democrats to hold.
The Republican candidate in Montana, aerospace millionaire Tim Sheehy, overtook Mr. Tester, a three-term incumbent, in the polls this summer and has since grown his lead.
A New York Times and Siena College poll released on Thursday showed Mr. Sheehy with a 7-point advantage over Mr. Tester, consistent with other polls.
“Jon Tester is no stranger to tough races. He has a strong record of delivering for Montana and a coalition of support across the state, including independent voters and Republicans, which is why Montanans are going to re-elect him in November,” Tester campaign spokesperson Monica Robinson said in a statement.
Democrats hope that coalition, along with a ballot referendum that would enshrine the right to abortion in the state’s constitution, will propel the incumbent to victory.
They’re also counting on help from a slew of bad headlines about Mr. Sheehy, including a report about the GOP candidate making derogatory remarks about Native Americans being drunk at 8 a.m.
Still, it’s doubtful that Mr. Tester can continue to defy “political gravity,” Ms. Taylor said.
“With a state that [former President Donald] Trump won by 16 points, it’s just very hard to outrun the top of the ticket by that much,” she said.
Ohio, which Mr. Trump won by 8 points in 2020, is another prime opportunity for Republicans, but it is considered a toss-up.
Mr. Brown, the three-term incumbent, has a 2.6-point advantage over Republican candidate Bernie Moreno, according to Real Clear Polling’s average of recent polls. A Washington Post poll released Thursday showed him with an even narrower 1-point lead.
The nearly $400 million in political advertising that has been spent or reserved in the Ohio Senate race makes it the second most expensive non-presidential contest on record after the 2020 Georgia Senate race, according to AdImpact.
“Ohio looked a lot better for Democrats over the summer,” Mr. Rubashkin said. “There has been a lot of spending in the intervening couple of months, especially from the cryptocurrency group Fair Shake, and that has helped Bernie Moreno close the gap considerably.”
Mr. Moreno is underperforming in Ohio compared to Mr. Sheehy in Montana.
Mr. Brown has made abortion a focal point of his campaign, hoping that will sway some pro-choice independents and Republicans to his side. Last fall, Ohio voters approved a constitutional amendment guaranteeing abortion rights in a 57% to 43% vote.
Republicans have other opportunities to flip seats, but Democrats are performing better outside of red states.
Five of the seven presidential swing states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada — also feature Senate races, where Democrats are outperforming their presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris.
Some of that gap is narrowing as the Nov. 5 election draws closer, especially in the blue-wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
In Nevada and Arizona, Democrats have held onto more of their advantage, which Ms. Taylor attributed to Democrats’ financial edge and GOP candidate quality.
All five swing-state seats are currently held by Democrats — or in the case of Arizona, a Democrat turned independent, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema — but only three are running for reelection: Sens. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, Robert P. Casey Jr. in Pennsylvania and Jacky Rosen in Nevada.
Ms. Sinema changed her party registration after rumblings of a primary challenge from Rep. Ruben Gallego, Arizona Democrat. A few months after he officially filed, Ms. Sinema announced she would not seek reelection.
With Sinema out of the picture, Mr. Gallego faces a much easier path to victory against his Republican opponent, Kari Lake, who is a “very polarizing figure,” as Ms. Taylor put it.
“She brought a lot of baggage from that 2022 gubernatorial race and continues to contest the results,” in which she lost, Ms. Taylor said.
Mr. Gallego has a 6.8-point lead in the polls, according to Real Clear Polling’s average.
Another House Democrat, Rep. Elissa Slotkin, is running for the open seat in Michigan to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. But she has a much smaller polling advantage, with an average lead of 1.8 points over the Republican candidate, former Rep. Mike Rogers, according to Real Clear Polling.
Of the three incumbents, Ms. Rosen is faring the best, with a 7.5 average polling lead over GOP candidate Sam Brown. Real Clear Polling’s averages show Mr. Casey with a 3.9-point lead over Mr. McCormick and Ms. Baldwin with a 3.4-point advantage over Republican Eric Hovde.
Outside of the red and swing states, Republicans are targeting one blue state. The GOP recruited former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan to run for an open Senate seat thanks to Democratic Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin retiring.
Despite having won statewide before, Mr. Hogan is still trailing his Democratic opponent, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, who has a nearly 10-point lead in recent polls.
Given the GOP’s all but guaranteed victory in West Virginia and eight other opportunities across the map where they only need one, they have projected confidence about winning the majority.
But Senate Democrats are not throwing in the towel.
They recently shifted their sights to a pair of longshot races in Texas and Florida, vowing to dump millions into the contests with their prospects in Montana dimming.
Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida eked by in their last bids, winning by 2 points and less than a point, respectively, and are underperforming Mr. Trump in the polls.
The Democratic candidate in Texas, Rep. Colin Allred, has gained ground but still trails by an average of 4.8 points, according to Real Clear Polling.
“Allred is trying to do something that no Democrat has done in 30 years, win statewide in Texas, so he’s got an uphill climb,” Mr. Rubashskin said.
In Florida, Mr. Scott leads former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by roughly 4 points, but a recent Siena College poll showed the incumbent with a dominant 9-point lead.
A Florida ballot referendum to guarantee abortion access until the viability of the fetus could drum up support for Ms. Mucarsel-Powell.
“If you’re on the wrong side of 68% of the people, many of them who are highly motivated to turn out on that issue, that’s not a good thing,” said Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan, who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Republicans are also facing a possible upset in Nebraska, where no Democrat is on the ballot.
Although the GOP has controlled Nebraska’s Senate delegation for over a decade, incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer is locked in a tight race with Dan Osborn, an independent who has said he will not caucus with either party.
Polling of the race has been limited, but an Independent Center poll this month showed Mr. Osborn ahead of Ms. Fischer 47% to 42%.
Mr. Osborn and his allies have spent more on ads, $4.7 million compared to the $2 million that Ms. Fischer and Republican groups have spent, according to AdImpact. Most of the independent’s financial bump comes from outside groups. The super PAC “Retire Career Politicians,” which has ties to a dark money group called the Sixteen Thirty Fund, has dumped $3 million to support Mr. Osborn.
Senate Republicans have responded by reserving over a half million dollars in ads to support Ms. Fischer.
Looking at the whole map, Ms. Taylor predicts a net gain of one to four seats for Republicans, while Mr. Rubaskin forecasts it as one to three seats.
Democrats have an outside shot of holding the majority if they manage to win all eight seats they are defending outside of West Virginia or match loses in one or two with pick-ups in Texas and Florida.
“It’s not an easy path, but it’s not an impossible one either,” Mr. Rubaskin said. “The pieces are all there.”
• Lindsey McPherson can be reached at lmcpherson@washingtontimes.com.
• Alex Miller can be reached at amiller@washingtontimes.com.