Nearly 9 in 10 nondegree certificates for skilled trades have no positive impact on wages, according to a report that finds U.S. job preparation programs lagging behind workforce needs.
The conservative American Enterprise Institute and the Burning Glass Institute, a nonprofit workforce research firm, said this week that only 12% of short-term certificates they analyzed produced wage gains of at least 10% that earners couldn’t have otherwise merited without enrolling.
A mere 18% of credential earners were likely to get any salary bump at all, leaving many paying for tuition without any payoff. And hardly any moved up to higher jobs.
Mark Schneider, AEI nonresident senior fellow and lead author of the report, said the findings highlight the challenges of young people navigating “a wild west” of over 1.1 million credentials as interest in skilled trade jobs booms.
“The usual cues to quality — e.g., a prestigious university or a reputable company — are not sufficient to help learners find credentials of value,” said Mr. Schneider, a former commissioner of the Education Department’s National Center for Education Statistics. “We hope this data will help learners and policymakers identify where to place their money and time to maximize the chances of improving their earnings and job opportunities.”
Mr. Schneider’s research team analyzed 23,444 nondegree certificate programs from over 2,000 educational institutions. It found stark differences between the disconnected education at most programs and the few that opened major career doors.
According to the report, the top 10% of nondegree credentials added nearly $5,000 to the average earner’s wages a year later, increased the likelihood of a promotion seventeenfold and boosted the chances of a successful career switch sixfold.
Several workforce experts interviewed by The Washington Times noted that high school graduates have increasingly embraced skilled trades over pricey four-year college programs in recent years.
According to Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce, nearly a third of annual job openings through 2031 will require some credentials but no college degree.
“Young people need guidance and clear information to understand which programs will be beneficial in leading to long-term career success and differentiate ineffective certification programs,” said Stanley Litow, a Columbia University workforce policy expert and trustee of the State University of New York. “Without that, students risk investing time in programs that won’t lead them to sustainable careers.”
Multiple reports in recent years have attributed surging enrollments in apprenticeships, trade schools and Pell Grant workforce training programs to a growing sense among young people that the dwindling number of good-paying jobs requiring a college degree doesn’t justify acquiring mountains of school debt.
Paul Iaccarino, who oversees one of New York’s largest unionized electrician apprenticeship programs through USWU Local 363, said the AEI-Burning Glass report confirms that many institutions are “cashing in” on this trend while staying “disconnected from the labor market.”
“Many of these certificate programs are built to generate enrollment, not careers,” Mr. Iaccarino said. “They lack employer support, and they offer minimal practical experience. When training is not tied to real jobs, it will not lead to real paychecks.”
His program offers debt-free, paid training that places students directly into careers earning over $80,000 a year with pensions, health care and zero student loans.
Most workforce experts say only paid training programs registered with the U.S. Labor Department or a state apprenticeship agency guarantee stable, long-term careers. Such programs often confer a professional license or feed into a unionized job with a defined wage scale.
Chase Norlin, Arizona-based CEO of the cybersecurity firm Transmosis, said technology employers likewise view certificates as confirming only the “baseline understanding” of young people applying to coveted information technology jobs.
He noted that many credential programs “have yet to fully address” the tech industry’s need for theoretical learning blended with practical knowledge.
“Employers consistently emphasize the importance of real-world work experience as the critical missing link for job candidates,” Mr. Norlin said. “Work experience provides several advantages that certifications and academic credentials cannot replicate.”
According to the AEI-Burning Glass report, public funding for credential programs “must be tied to empirical evidence of labor market value” to protect learners and taxpayers from wasting their time.
Matt Sigelman, president of the Burning Glass Institute, highlighted two skilled industries requiring only a high school education where young people can boost their earnings with a recognized certificate: electricians along with plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters.
Electricians earn an average yearly salary of $62,350 and can boost their wages by $3,400 annually with an industrial credential from the National Center for Construction Education and Research.
Plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters earn an average annual salary of $62,350. Mr. Sigelman said they could boost that by $1,900 with a plumbing and related water service credential from the American Welding Society.
“However, with 88% of credentials delivering no meaningful wage gain, the return on investment for the vast majority of credentials is sure to be negative,” he said.
• Sean Salai can be reached at ssalai@washingtontimes.com.