Former President Donald Trump is within striking distance of President Biden in Minnesota, lending weight to the idea that the Republican could put Democrat-friendly territory in play this fall.
A Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll released Monday shows Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump 45% to 41% among likely voters in the state, with 7% undecided and 6% rallying around independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Trump senior adviser Chris LaCivita promoted the concept at a donor retreat this year that Mr. Trump is poised to compete strongly in Minnesota and Virginia.
If that happens, Mr. Biden’s chances of winning reelection would be dashed.
Still, putting the two states in play remains a tall task, according to political analysts who say Mr. Biden’s campaign would have to fall apart.
President Richard Nixon in 1972 was the last Republican to win Minnesota in a presidential race.
Mr. Trump nearly pulled off the feat in 2016 as Hillary Clinton defeated him there by 1.5%, marking the closest a Republican had come to capturing the state since President Ronald Reagan lost there by less than 1% to native son Walter Mondale in 1984.
In 2020, Mr. Biden decisively outperformed Mr. Trump, notching a 7-point win.
The new survey of 800 likely Minnesota voters carried warning signs for Mr. Biden, including a massive enthusiasm gap, and highlighted Mr. Trump’s challenges in and around Minneapolis and St. Paul.
Among voters who said they were very enthusiastic about their preferred pick, Mr. Trump has a 62% to 31% edge over Mr. Biden.
That has become a familiar theme in the rematch between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, who with raging inflation has struggled to generate a lot of excitement around his bid.
Mr. Biden’s approval rating also is underwater, with 53% disapproving and 46% approving. For Mr. Trump, it’s a similar story with 52% disapproving and 47% approving of his performance as president.
That marks an uptick from the same survey in September 2020 when 43% approved of Mr. Trump’s performance.
The survey was conducted from June 3-5 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.