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President Trump is taking an aggressive stance ahead of Friday’s high-stakes summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, threatening “very serious consequences” if Russia doesn’t move toward ending its war in Ukraine. However, Mr. Putin has a lengthy history of manipulating peace negotiations and breaking ceasefire agreements.
The meeting at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson represents a crucial first step for President Trump, who needs to see genuine commitment to peace from President Putin before arranging a follow-up meeting. If the summit succeeds, Mr. Trump indicated a second meeting involving himself, Mr. Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should occur “almost immediately.” However, he cautioned there may be no second meeting if he doesn’t receive satisfactory answers.
Mr. Trump has valid reasons for managing expectations, given the consistent pattern of failed ceasefires between Russia and Ukraine. By Mr. Zelenskyy’s count, Russia has violated 25 ceasefire agreements since 2014 when Russia first attacked Ukraine. Most recently, both countries reported attacks on each other during the first day of a 72-hour ceasefire Mr. Putin declared in May.
During a Wednesday video conference with European leaders, Mr. Zelenskyy warned that Mr. Putin won’t abandon territorial gains and is applying pressure across Ukrainian fronts to demonstrate Russia’s capability to occupy all of Ukraine. President Zelenskyy emphasized that any peace process must begin with a ceasefire followed by “real security guarantees,” which President Trump reportedly supported.
Mr. Trump’s Monday suggestion that peace would require “land swapping” between Ukraine and Russia drew criticism from Mr. Zelenskyy and European leaders as dangerous appeasement. House Foreign Affairs Chairman Brian Mast expects Mr. Putin to demand formal Ukrainian surrender of territory, calling this a dealbreaker.
Rep. Mast argued against giving Russia land it couldn’t secure militarily when Ukrainians remain willing to fight.
The history of failed agreements dates to February 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea, violating the 1997 Agreement on Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership. The first major ceasefire signed September 5, 2014, collapsed within hours after Russian proxy forces attacked Donetsk airport. The Minsk-2 agreement on February 15, 2015, failed even faster, with attacks reported minutes after adoption.
Despite Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe monitoring efforts, violations continued.
Subsequent ceasefire attempts focused on providing respites during holidays, academic periods, and agricultural cycles, including Easter, Christmas, and New Year’s Eve pauses from 2015-2019, but none achieved lasting peace in the conflict that has caused hundreds of thousands of casualties.
Read more: Putin to test Trump’s dealmaking prowess at Alaska summit
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