The National Park Service has released its peak bloom prediction for the District’s Tidal Basin cherry blossoms, and enthusiasts hope it’s accurate enough to avoid a repeat of last year’s St. Patrick’s Day surprise.

Officials estimated Thursday that District’s brightest and pinkest day of the year will fall between March 28 and 31, starting 11 days later than last year’s unseasonally early March 17 date, which defied the forecasts. 

Kevin Griess, the National Park Service’s superintendent of the National Mall and Memorial Parks, warned that the prediction could be off again this year as horticulturalists monitor the temperatures and trees.

“This timing is always subject, obviously, to weather,” he said during a press conference.

Mr. Griess, who was named superintendent in November, joked about discovering how seriously people take the peak bloom prediction after his arrival in the District.

“And one thing that I’ve found out since I’ve been here, the weather is absolutely consistent day by day here, so understand that this is a stable projection,” he said, adding, “Unless the weather comes, which I appreciate.” 

Last year, the warmest January on record made it harder than usual to forecast peak bloom, which occurs when 70% of the area’s Yoshino cherry blossoms are open, with the “puffy white blossoms … creating a cloudlike effect” among the roughly 3,500 trees that line the basin, according to the Park Service website.

The blossoms bloomed unexpectedly on Sunday, March 17, six days earlier than the March 23-26 period that officials predicted and three days before the National Cherry Blossom Festival’s opening ceremony. 

This date fell close to the earliest peak bloom date on record — March 15, 1990 — and surprised area residents as the Park Service shared the news on X. Smaller-than-usual weekday crowds flocked to the basin as the blooms faded by the following weekend.

The latest peak bloom on record occurred on April 18, 1958.

Arborists estimate peak bloom dates by looking at indicator trees that start budding 10-14 days before the others. The day it occurs varies depending on the weather, with the Environmental Protection Agency reporting that the average date is April 4 after more than a century of data. 

However, peak bloom has fallen earlier than the average during the past six years, landing on March 23 two years ago.

According to Park Service officials, last year’s unseasonably warm winter tricked the cherry trees into reacting as if spring had come early, causing them to open their buds ahead of schedule.

If temperatures drop below freezing for extended periods this month, the opposite can happen, as water freezes inside the buds and causes them to fall off.

The emergence of the blossoms and related celebrations offer D.C.-area residents a hopeful sign of spring each year, with peak bloom drawing the largest crowds of admirers. 

The annual National Cherry Blossom Festival, which draws 1.5 million tourists and generates $100 million of revenue for D.C. each year, will run from March 20 to April 13. It includes a children’s parade and Japanese cultural celebrations hosted in various locations.

This year’s festival commemorates the 113th anniversary of the original Yoshino cherry trees that the mayor of Tokyo gave to the District as a gift in 1912. Park officials replace about 90 trees a year, and only two of the original trees remain alive.

Diana Mayhew, president of the National Cherry Blossom Festival, said the festival works “together to connect the community.”

“Our programming is crafted to provide opportunities for everyone,” she said.

D.C. has struggled in recent years with a funding crisis, plunging commercial real estate values, rampant crime, the absence of daily commuters due to hybrid work arrangements and an exodus of retail stores and restaurants.

Mayor Muriel Bowser expressed optimism Thursday that this year’s blossoms will boost the city’s “excitement and economic activity.”

“Obviously, we love the festival because it’s beautiful, but we also love it because it brings so many people to Washington, D.C., for the festival,” Ms. Bowser said, noting that last year’s festival crowds exceeded prepandemic numbers.

• Sean Salai can be reached at ssalai@washingtontimes.com.