The National Security Agency’s Gilbert Herrera knows many people may not understand why his agency is funding research that could help produce an “economic weapon of mass destruction.”

Mr. Herrera, NSA’s research director, said Wednesday that the potential invention of a useful quantum computer could be deployed as an unfathomable weapon, but it could also bring untold benefits for everyone.

He gave a rare glimpse into why the NSA would “fund research that could be used to create a computer that could threaten the global economy” in remarks to the Institute for Electrical and Electronics Engineers’ Military Communications Conference.

“By sponsoring research, we can better gauge what is attainable and by when, and on that basis can estimate the potential availability of a quantum computer and prepare for that eventuality,” Mr. Herrera said in remarks shared by NSA. “This way, we can be prepared for the threat posed by a quantum computer while simultaneously advancing the fundamental science that will lead to a useful quantum computer for the benefit of everyone.”

Government officials around the world worry about the arrival of a useful quantum computer, often referred to as cryptanalytically relevant because of its value in breaking encryption. Such a computer could bypass the security of sensitive systems and make digital defenses for everything from state secrets to financial transactions totally worthless.

“A quantum computer has the potential to significantly cut world energy consumption, make energy storage more efficient and expedite drug discovery,” Mr. Herrera said. “It also has the potential to wreck the world economy and place government networks at risk. In the worst-case scenario, a quantum computer could be an economic weapon of mass destruction.”

Mr. Herrera told attendees that quantum computers’ possible applications to chemical dynamics alone could help make ammonium nitrate fertilizers that account for 1 to 2% of the world’s total energy consumption now. He said the device could also accelerate drug testing that would help eliminate the practice of experiments on animals.

Given the upside of the machines, Mr. Herrera advocated people not let fear of possible threats cause them to throw the baby out with the bath water.

“As we work to mitigate the threats posed by quantum computing, we must preserve the global nature of scientific exploration and enable quantum information science companies to mature quantum technologies as rapidly as possible to the benefit of humanity,” he said. 

Mr. Herrera is skeptical of predictions saying a useful quantum computer will emerge anytime soon. He said publicly reported estimates of the machine’s anticipated arrival are often more optimistic than what he learns from scientists and engineers engaged in technical discussions. 

He said his own experience taught him failures will come. More than 20 years ago he participated in a meeting of top scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory to create a Quantum Computing Roadmap. 

The participants created a 268-page report with roadmaps for eight different quantum computing technologies. 

“Few of the significant goals have been achieved today, a decade past the projection,” he said. “Other roadmaps have been created before and since, with projections made that were similarly optimistic. Creating a large quantum computer is a daunting task, and it is difficult to predict when progress will be made.”

Technology experts know a quantum computer is not going to emerge in a Silicon Valley garage and private industry is likely not capable of singlehandedly sustaining the costly investments needed for research required to build the quantum machines. 

If anyone does pull it off, Mr. Herrera revealed what he expects may prove to be a hidden ingredient to their success. 

“I believe what is missing in quantum computing is a body of knowledge whose corollary in classical computing is semiconductor device physics,” Mr. Herrera said. 

He thinks a missing qubit device physics theory is likely needed to expedite the machine’s production.

Quantum computers will rely on qubits, or quantum bits of information, which the U.S. Energy Department expects can encode much more data than the bits used by existing computers. Quantum computers will leverage quantum mechanics in a way classical computers cannot.   

He said without such a qubit device theory to undergird the quantum computers, qubit design and manufacturing processes must rely more heavily on trial-and-error. 

“While a series of major breakthroughs could occur absent a qubit device theory, progress will most likely continue to be slow absent such a theory,” he said.

• Ryan Lovelace can be reached at rlovelace@washingtontimes.com.