SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea claimed Friday the latest test of its shadowy unmanned, underwater nuclear weapon, believed to be based on a Russian design, a few days after U.S., South Korean and Japanese naval forces conducted drills.
Details of the test on the “Haeil” (“Tsunami”) weapon were not offered, and South Korea’s Joint Chiefs offered no comment. No radiation alerts have been issued, nor have any unusual sea conditions been reported by Japan or South Korea.
The announced test indicates the tit-for-tat cycle is accelerating.
It followed three-day drills held from Monday to Wednesday by Japanese, South Korean and U.S. naval forces, incorporating the nuclear aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. Those drills, in turn, followed North Korea’s test of a hypersonic missile over the weekend.
North Korea’s state media today said that the Haeil test was a response to the democratic partners’ naval drills.
Experts say North Korea is well-positioned to upgrade provocations in 2024. It is a U.S. election year, offering Pyongyang the potential to draw attention and then de-escalate and engage in negotiation mode once the new presidency commences.
With no end to the Ukraine conflict in sight, North Korea is taking advantage of opportunities. Pyongyang, which halted diplomacy with Washington in the wake of a 2019 leaders’ summit that imploded without agreement, has been leveraging the Ukraine conflict to tighten relations with heavily sanctioned Moscow.
Testing the ‘Tsunami’
North Korea said Friday that it tested the Haeil-5-23 in the Sea of Japan, though it provided few details.
“Our army’s underwater nuke-based countering posture is being further rounded off, and its various maritime and underwater responsive actions will continue to deter the hostile military maneuvers of the navies of the U.S. and its allies,” a defense ministry official said in a statement carried by state media.
Over the last year, national leader Kim Jong-un has repeatedly called for an upgrade to his navy — an arm customarily under-resourced compared to North Korea’s nuclear-armed ballistic missiles force, tactical rocket artillery and espionage/special forces command.
North Korea revealed that it was testing an atomic unmanned underwater vehicle, or UUV, in March 2023, claiming the Haeil-1 could generate a “super scale radioactive tsunami.” In April 2023, it tested the Haeil-2, saying the weapon had traveled 600 miles and detonated a test warhead.
Though details are scarce, images released show a torpedo-like object operating just below the surface, and an underwater explosion. The Haeil is believed to be based on Russia’s “Poseidon,” a nuclear UUV.
Per specialist media militarytoday.com, the Poseidon’s existence was confirmed by the Pentagon in 2016.
It mounts a two-megaton nuclear warhead and operates at both deep depths and high speeds, making it difficult to intercept. Essentially an autonomous, nuclear torpedo, the Poseidon deploys from a submarine mother ship and could feasibly loiter on the sea floor until activated.
A Russian defense expert, speaking off-record at a Seoul conference prior to the outbreak of the Ukraine War, expressed unease with that weapon.
His fears focused on whether it installed an AI system, which, un-monitored by a human crew, could operate the Poseidon truly autonomously, beyond command-and-control structures. Moreover, being nuclear-propelled as well as nuclear-armed, its ability to loiter and roam is virtually limitless, the expert fretted.
Given regional and global circumstances, Seoul-based experts say North Korea is likely to upgrade provocative acts in 2024.
Year of living dangerously
So far in 2024, North Korea has conducted coastal artillery drills off a sensitive South Korean frontline island, tested a hypersonic missile and announced its abandonment of any peaceful reunification with South Korea.
Concerns hover that later in the year, the North could test a tactical nuclear weapon – a more difficult device to engineer than the strategic warheads it has tested six times – or launch kinetic strikes at or near South Korea.
“I think North Korea is going to return to the pattern of provocations and more provocations, then negotiations with the U.S.,” said Go Myong-hyun, a North Korea watcher at Seoul’s Asan Institute. “North Korea gave up on talks as [U.S. President] Biden was indifferent, and because China and Russia are more aligned with them in the new Cold War framework.”
China and Russia have ceased condemning North Korea’s missile tests in the UN Security Council and undercut U.S. efforts on new sanctions. Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim summited last September in Russia.
Following that, North Korea successfully placed a spy satellite into orbit, leading Seoul to assume Russia had given technical assistance. The U.S. accused Pyongyang of sending munitions and missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine.
Earlier this week, North Korea’s foreign minister met Mr. Putin in Moscow, with Seoul analysts assuming their discussions focused on preparing for a visit by Russia’s leader to North Korea.
With risks spiraling in Ukraine and the Middle East, Pyongyang may calculate that saber-rattling offers possibilities at a time when U.S. nerves are taut.
“Globally, there is a lot of instability and uncertainty: Would that kind of environment give them the sense that opportunities are emerging for them to challenge the status quo?” wondered Daniel Pinkston, a Seoul-based international relations expert with Troy University. “But there are risks involved. How much risk are they willing to accept?”
Given Washington’s political cycle, Pyongyang’s provocation calendar likely extends to year’s end.
“I think the North Koreans…are probably waiting for next year when [ex-U.S. President Donald] Trump may come back,” said Mr. Go.
Mr. Trump was the first sitting U.S. president to negotiate with a North Korean leader. Mr. Biden did not follow that lead.
“I think they want to frontload provocations this year,” Mr. Go said. “Next year, they get a clean slate [with a new or renewed administration] to negotiate from a position of strength.”
With Pyongyang insisting it will neither denuclearize nor discuss denuclearization, negotiating space with Washington is limited. Some experts who favor engaging North Korea hope a U.S. president would abandon denuclearization and focus on arms control.
Mr. Pinkston says that would be a hard sell for any White House.
“What is in that for any American president? What is the political gain or rationale? How do you explain that to U.S. constituents?” asked Mr. Pinkston. “I just don’t see it.”
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.