SEOUL, South Korea — No deal is on the horizon for Japan, America’s leading Indo-Pacific ally, as the clock ticks toward President Trump’s tariff deadline of July 9.

Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki on Wednesday swerved from a string of recent comments made by Mr. Trump about Japan.

“We are aware of what President Trump said, but we don’t comment on every remark,” Mr. Aoki said. “We intend to advance bilateral talks in a sincere and faithful manner toward reaching an agreement that will benefit both Japan and the United States.”

Mr. Trump posted Monday on TruthSocial and X: “To show people how spoiled countries have become with respect to the United States of America, and I have great respect for Japan, they won’t take our RICE and yet they have a massive rice shortage.”

Japan’s rice sector is protected and regulated. It is central to Japanese culinary culture, granting rice farmers a loud political voice.

The U.S. is the leading national exporter of the grain to Japan, but Tokyo’s import quota is set low, at just 770,000 tons per year. Any rice imports that exceed that suffer tariffs.

Mr. Trump continued with a tariff threat. “We will be sending them a letter and we love having them as a Trade Partner for many years to come,” he posted.

That was not his first anti-Japan broadside.

“They won’t take our cars, and yet, we take millions and millions of their cars into the United States. It’s not fair,” Mr. Trump earlier told Fox News in an interview that aired Sunday that was widely reported in Japan.

Absent a deal or a second postponement of the deadline, a range of products including Japan’s leading export — automobiles — will suffer tariffs.

Duties on car imports are set to rise to 27.5%, up 25% from the current 2.5%, making Japanese vehicles hugely expensive for U.S. consumers.

Japan has for years been the world’s largest car exporter, though some datasets suggest it was overtaken by China last year.

Tokyo does not itself apply tariffs to imported autos, but U.S. cars have customarily suffered low popularity, both in Japan and in neighboring South Korea.

“We have a big deficit with Japan, and they understand that, too.” Mr Trump told Fox News.

Per U.S. census data, Japan, a highly efficient industrial powerhouse, has run multibillion dollar goods trade surpluses with the U.S. every single year since 1985. Last year, that surplus exceeded $69 billion; for the first quarter of 2024, it was over $24 billion.

Tensions are mounting. Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, returned home Sunday after a fruitless four-day trip to Washington — his seventh round of ministerial-level tariff talks.

He met Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, but not, per Japanese media, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a key formulator of the administration’s trade policy.

Mr. Bessent earlier said that if partners continue to negotiate “in good faith,” tariffs could be suspended until Sept. 1.

It is not clear if Mr. Trump agrees with these comments, or if Mr. Aoki was referring to them Wednesday.

Negotiations at the highest level stalled. Mr. Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba failed to reach an agreement in June 16 talks at Canada’s Group of Seven summit.

Tariffs are not the only grating issue between Tokyo and Washington.

On June 21, Japan canceled a meeting between both nations’ defense and foreign ministers following U.S. demands that Tokyo expand defense spending to 3.5% of GDP.

Japan in 2022 announced it was doubling defense spending from 1% to 2% of GDP — creating immense budget pressures.

Japan is one of America’s leading global allies. Sitting off China, North Korea and Russia, it is home to the largest contingent of U.S. troops stationed overseas: almost 53,000 in 2024.

Japan-based troops would likely be first responders to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or a major North Korean attack on South Korea.

Japan’s southern Ryukyu Islands dominate maritime choke points that China’s warships would have to traverse to surround Taiwan. Tokyo is fortifying the chain with missile bases and buying hundreds of U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Economically, Japan is the biggest cumulative investor in the U.S. and the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury bonds.

Given these strategic and economic factors, it is unclear how badly ties will fray.

Mr. Ishiba’s government — already weak in the Diet’s Lower House — faces an Upper House election on July 20. This restricts his freedom of action in critical sectors such as cars and rice, suggested an expert.

Mr. Ishiba is “making clear what Japan can and cannot do,” said Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an associate professor of politics and international relations at Tokyo International University’s Institute for International Strategy. “He faces a political crisis in Japan, so he has to make his stand on things.”

Others agreed that Mr. Ishiba — leading a nation that customarily does diplomacy very quietly — is pushing back, but also pointed the finger at Mr. Trump.

“Initial expectations were that Japan would do whatever it took to keep Trump sweet, and yet Ishiba has not moved to seal a deal on the tariffs,” said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies at Temple University in Tokyo. “I think in Japan there is an expectation that Trump will concede rather than push his advantage on trade, but nobody can predict his behavior: It is erratic and vindictive.”

• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.