For one of the world’s fastest fighter jet planes, the F-16 took its time getting to Ukraine. Now the big question is how much of a difference the U.S.-made plane can make in a bogged-down ground battle of attrition with Russia that has now lasted 2 1/2 years.
Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy began pressing the Biden administration to provide his country with the cutting-edge fighter jets soon after Russia launched its invasion in February 2022. After years of delay, including what some have considered foot-dragging by Washington for fear of provoking the Kremlin, Mr. Zelenskyy this week confirmed the Ukrainian-piloted, fourth-generation fighters are now in the fight.
Kyiv mounted a full-court press, combining diplomatic engagements and political arm-twisting, to convince Washington and other NATO powers that F-16s were needed to defend their airspace and protect critical infrastructure from Russian attacks. The American-made jets would augment and eventually replace Ukraine’s fleet of aging Soviet-era fighters.
“F-16 planes are already in the skies of Ukraine and there will be more of them,” Mr. Zelenskyy said Thursday on his Telegram page. “Ukraine has been asking its partners to close the sky or provide planes since the first day of the full-scale Russian invasion.”
NATO members have committed to providing at least 60 F-16s to Ukraine, although it wasn’t clear how many were in the first batch. Analysts say they could greatly improve the country’s layered air defense and significantly contribute to the detection and destruction of Russian missiles and drones.
The delay echoed a familiar pattern in the war, which President Biden from the beginning has said would not include a direct U.S. combat presence: The outmanned, outgunned Ukrainians would plead for a sophisticated Western military asset — a longer-range ground missile, a high-tech missile defense battery — only to be met with delay and excuses. Finally, in multiple cases, the U.S. and its allies gave in, despite Russian warnings.
“President Zelenskyy has said time and time again that his top priority is air defense,” said Becca Wasser, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank in Washington. “He needs more air defense in order to defend Ukrainian territory and Ukrainian citizens.”
The F-16s will likely be a morale booster for Ukrainians while also reminding Russian soldiers in the field and their leaders in the Kremlin that President Zelenskyy has access to firepower superior to their own. America’s great-power adversaries fear the air might of the United States and its allies, security analysts with the Center for Strategic and International Studies said.
“These air forces have been purposely built to strike strategic targets, counter the power of great armies and navies, and defend sovereign territory,” CSIS said in a June 2024 report. “The F-16 is the most prolific Western fourth-generation fighter jet produced, with thousands still in active service and highly upgraded versions still in production.”
In a new analysis for the Atlantic Council, Olena Tregub, a member of the Anti-Corruption Council under the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, hailed the arrival of the F-16s as a “victory for all Ukrainians” but noted that the older models of the fighter jet being supplied by European militaries have their limitations.
“Limited radar reach means that deployment of F-16s on the front lines of the war is seen as too risky, as they could be shot down by both Russian aircraft and Russian air defenses,” she noted.
“As Ukraine acquires more F-16s in the coming months, and as the country’s limited pool of pilots grows in size and experience, we will likely see these jets used in more adventurous ways,” she wrote. “This may include targeting Russian planes and helicopters operating close to the front lines with long-range strikes. For now, though, the main task of Ukraine’s F-16s will be to improve the country’s air defenses and protect the civilian population from Russian bombardment.”
Russian reaction
Russia, which has had the initiative in bloody ground fighting in eastern and southern Ukraine in recent months, is not happy with the arrival of the F-16s, while insisting the U.S.-made jets will not make a decisive difference in the war.
The Kremlin is offering cash bounties for any F-16s destroyed by their forces. After the fighters began arriving in Ukraine, a spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin said they would not significantly alter the course of their ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
“There is no ’magic pill’ here. There is no panacea. The armed forces of the Kyiv regime will not get a universal remedy — they should be aware of that,” presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, according to the official TASS news agency. “Should these airplanes appear, their number will gradually decrease. They will be shot down and destroyed.”
But analysts say the F-16s will enhance Ukraine’s ability to prevent Russian pilots from entering their airspace and target enemy cruise missiles in flight. Moscow has demonstrated its ability to bypass Kyiv’s existing air defense systems and strike civilian targets across Ukraine, analysts said.
But, the appearance of a few F-16s in Ukraine won’t be an immediate “game changer” for the war, Ms. Wasser said. Ukraine also is in short supply of pilots trained on the vastly more sophisticated American jets.
“This isn’t all of a sudden going to establish Ukrainian air superiority over Ukraine or be able to rapidly shift what is occurring on the battlefield,” she said. “One of the biggest limiting factors has been the need to train Ukrainian pilots on how to operate the F-16s because they are so different than the aircraft the Ukrainian Air Force had.”
The U.S. and NATO should reconsider restrictions on how Ukraine uses its new F-16s in combat. Air strikes should not be confined to Ukrainian territory. Kyiv may need to use its new jet fighters to destroy Russian logistics hubs or for strategic attacks, CSIS officials said.
“The United States should flood the Ukrainian Air Force with F-16s and other aircraft by incorporating decommissioned U.S. aircraft from the boneyard or those divested from its force structure,” CSIS said in their report: “F-16s Unleashed. How They Will Impact Ukraine’s War.”
Mr. Zelenskyy said the arrival of the fighter jets marked a new chapter in the country’s ability to defend itself from the air.
“We often heard the answer that it was impossible,” he said. “Now it is a reality in our skies — F-16s are in Ukraine.”
• Mike Glenn can be reached at mglenn@washingtontimes.com.