Most illegal immigrants at the border are still being caught and released after the end of Title 42, according to new numbers obtained by The Washington Times that challenge Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas’ promises of “consequences.”

The overall number of people jumping the border is down dramatically, falling to just a quarter of what it was at the beginning of last week when 10,000 people were surging across the boundary with Mexico each day.

But those who are coming are still winning quick release in most cases, the CBP figures show.

In the five days after Title 42 ended on May 11, nearly 7 out of 10 unauthorized migrants processed by Customs and Border Protection were released, either on parole or with an immigration court summons, known as a Notice to Appear.

That marks a slight increase compared to the days just before May 11.

CBP was sending more people over to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, where they faced the possibility of formal deportation, but those numbers were still tiny — just 11% of migrants processed by CBP from May 12 to May 16.

“The vast majority of aliens are still being released into the United States and the Biden administration is struggling to handle the flow. Even though it’s smaller, they’re still struggling to handle it,” said Andrew “Art” Arthur, a former immigration judge and now a legal fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies

Title 42 was the pandemic emergency power that allowed Homeland Security to quickly turn back border arrivals. It proved to be a major tool in blocking some of the unprecedented waves of illegal immigrants.

It expired along with the rest of the pandemic emergency last week.

Mr. Mayorkas had promised to replace it with punishments that he said could deter migrants even better than Title 42.

“We will deliver consequences to individuals that arrive at our southern border irregularly,” the secretary said at the border last week.

Chief among those consequences is what’s known as “expedited removal,” a speedy deportation power that can oust someone in a couple of days.

Someone who is deported and who tries to come back illegally can be charged with a felony, and those deported also face a five-year bar on trying to reenter legally.

The CBP data doesn’t detail how many people were put into expedited removal but it does show how many were transferred to ICE, where they might face deportation. That rate went from about 5% of migrants in the days before Title 42 expired to 11% after Title 42.

Mr. Mayorkas had predicted the border would devolve into worse chaos with the end of Title 42, before improving as his plans took hold.

Instead, the border improved immediately, going from about 10,000 illegal encounters a day to just 2,800 on Wednesday.

Homeland Security officials said the drop was evidence their plans were already working.

“We continue to see encouraging signs that the measures we have put in place are working,” Assistant Secretary Blas Nunez-Nieto told reporters in a briefing on Wednesday.

But those still coming have a good chance of getting what they seek — a foothold in the U.S.

CBP’s internal data shows 37394 “bookouts” from May 12 through May 16. Of those, 68% were either issued an NTA and released, or released via parole without an NTA.

Another 14% were blocked, and 11% were sent to ICE. The remainder were sent to other agencies, such as unaccompanied juveniles shipped over to the Health and Human Services Department or migrants sent to other law enforcement agencies for active warrants.

Customs and Border Protection didn’t respond to inquiries for this story.

Homeland Security declined to comment, instead referring back to Mr. Nunez-Nieto’s briefing Wednesday.

In that briefing Mr. Nunez-Nieto declined to talk about specific outcomes, saying the numbers are still too preliminary. But he said “thousands” of people have been flown back to their home countries in recent days.

He did celebrate the major drop in newcomers and said even the composition of who’s coming has changed.

He said before Title 42 expired they were seeing a massive number of Venezuelans, averaging 2,400 a day, followed by 1,900 Mexicans and 1,400 Colombians.

After Title 42, the overall numbers were down, and so was the composition. Mexicans now topped the list at about 1,000 a day, followed by 500 Colombians and 470 Guatemalans. Venezuela fell down the list.

“It is still too soon to draw any firm conclusions here about where these trends will go,” he said.

Brandon Judd, a Border Patrol agent and president of the National Border Patrol Council, said the administration shouldn’t get too comfortable with the drop.

He said migrants appear to have been scared by the tough talk from the Biden administration, but once they realize that a majority of migrants are still being caught and released at the border the numbers will pick up.

“The cartels are going to coach people on exactly what they need to do to be released,” he said.

Mr. Judd said the people being caught and released now are comprised largely of family units, which thanks to a court ruling and Biden administration policies are difficult to hold in detention.

The drop in new arrivals, meanwhile, has been among single adults, who can be detained and put through expedited removal.

Another way to slice CBP’s data is to look at what happened to the population that was being expelled under Title 42.

That was about 25% of the total of illegal immigrants CBP was processing before May 11.

It’s impossible to draw a one-to-one comparison, but given the movement of other numbers, it appears that about a quarter of the Title 42 population is now being sent to ICE, a quarter is being caught and released with NTAs and half is still being pushed back across the boundary, only as a voluntary return or a “withdrawal” of application for admission.

“Voluntary return and withdrawal have replaced the minimal level of Title 42 exclusions,” Mr. Arthur said.

Mr. Nunez-Nieto, in briefing reporters Wednesday, was asked specifically about people released on NTAs. He declined to give numbers but said those who are released have been “thoroughly vetted against our national security and public safety databases.”

But the acting director of ICE told Congress last month that while the U.S. has access to some other countries’ data, there are some countries that authorities can’t check in with. That means agents and officers often do not know about criminal history in migrants’ home countries before releasing them.

“We don’t have access to many of those countries’ records,” acting Director Tae Johnson said.

• Stephen Dinan can be reached at sdinan@washingtontimes.com.