A landmark Dutch study found that most adolescents ultimately outgrow their gender confusion, fueling the growing unease over the advisability of treating those under 18 with gender-transition drugs and surgeries.
The newly published research in the Archives of Sexual Behavior tracking 2,772 adolescents into early adulthood said that 11% reported “gender non-contentedness” at age 11, a figure that decreased with age and fell to 4% by ages 24-26.
“Gender non-contentedness, while being relatively common during early adolescence, in general decreases with age and appears to be associated with a poorer self-concept and mental health throughout development,” said the paper by medical researchers at the University of Groningen.
The study divided children into three trajectories based on their response to the statement, “I wish to be of the opposite sex.” The participants had three options: “never,” “sometimes,” or “often.”
The majority, or 78%, said they had no gender non-contentedness; 19% had decreasing gender non-contentedness over the course of the study, and just 2% had increasing gender non-contentedness.
Most of the study participants who expressed increasing gender dissatisfaction over the years were female. Those whose non-contentedness rose and fell were also more likely to have lower self-worth during adolescence than those without gender non-contentedness.
“The results of the current study might help adolescents to realize that it is normal to have some doubts about one’s identity and one’s gender identity during this age period and that this is also relatively common,” said the paper.
The researchers warned that health care providers may want to be cautious in treating adolescents with gender dysphoria by “primarily seeing individuals with intense gender dysphoric feelings and give them a more comprehensive view on the range of developmental patterns in the general population and in children receiving youth psychiatric care.”
The findings reenergized the heated debate over treating patients under the age of 18 with gender dysphoria with puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgeries — treatments that are fueling a booming sex-reassignment industry.
“These results strongly oppose rushing to transition kids who report gender dysphoria in the name of ‘gender-affirming’ care. Stay safe. Stay smart,” said Michael Guillen, a former Harvard physics instructor and author.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk responded to the study on his X platform by saying: “I’m cool with adults doing whatever they want, so long as it doesn’t harm others, but kids need to be protected at all costs.”
Others disagreed, arguing that the research’s conclusions were being blown out of proportion.
Epidemiologist Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz said on his Health Nerd substack page that “the study definitely does not show that ‘being trans is usually just a phase for kids.’”
“As the authors themselves note, answering ‘sometimes’ to the statement ‘I wish to be of the opposite sex’ is, at best, a very weak proxy for transgender identification,” he said. “I don’t think it’s particularly surprising that most children who ‘sometimes’ want to be a different sex at age 10 change their minds by age 24 — that’s just how growing up works.”
He said the baseline results show that about 85% of the children with gender non-contentedness answered “sometimes” wanted to be the opposite sex, with just 15% saying “often.”
“At best, it seems likely that children who have a strong trans identity at ages 10-14 probably don’t change that much, while those who only sometimes think about being another gender may change their minds a bit more — how this relates to the proportion of kids who no longer identify as another gender when they grow up is anyone’s guess,” he said.
His analysis drew pushback from London School of Economics methodology professor Patrick Sturgis, who accused Mr. Meyerowitz-Katz of cherry-picking his estimates.
“I’d say this [study] is pretty strong evidence that within-person gender dysphoria diminishes substantially pre-pubescence to early adulthood,” said Mr. Sturgis on X.
Mr. Meyerowitz-Katz shot back: “So you’re comfortable drawing conclusions about a broad concept with no firm definition from a single question on a survey? How remarkable.”
The study comes amid rising concerns about gender-transition procedures for minors in Western Europe, where countries such as Finland, Sweden and Norway are pulling back on their sex-reassignment protocols for youth.
The National Health Service in England banned last month puberty blockers for those under 18 outside of clinical trials, citing a lack of evidence of its effectiveness in treating gender dysphoria.
The debate is still playing out in the U.S. Twenty-two states have banned or restricted medicalized gender-transition treatment for minors, while the Biden administration has extolled the benefits of “gender-affirming care” for those under 18.
“For transgender and nonbinary children and adolescents, early gender-affirming care is crucial to overall health and well-being as it allows the child or adolescent to focus on social transitions and can increase their confidence while navigating the healthcare system,” said a 2022 resource guide from the Health and Human Services’ Office of Population Affairs.
• Valerie Richardson can be reached at vrichardson@washingtontimes.com.