BUENOS AIRES — When addressing supporters, Donald Trump likes to refer to himself as “your favorite president,” but there’s only one leader the American president-elect has dubbed “my favorite president” — Argentina’s Javier Milei.
The firebrand libertarian — and fellow wild-haired disrupter — from Buenos Aires is among a select group of heads of state Mr. Trump has invited to his Jan. 20 inauguration, and Argentinians hope the special bond between the men will translate into tangible benefits for their country.
The admiration is mutual between the two men, but getting the policies to align may be more problematic. The two presidents do not always match up ideologically, and both have shown a penchant for crushing previously close personal relationships. To put too much of a stake on their friendship, analysts here warn, could be dangerous — particularly for Mr. Milei.
The Argentine leader is counting on the Trump administration’s help in upcoming negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, Buenos Aires’ main creditor and an organization over which Washington traditionally holds great sway.
During his first term in office, Mr. Trump struck up a similar rapport with then-President Mauricio Macri, a one-time businessman whom he knew from a joint New York City construction venture in the 1980s. In 2018, Mr. Trump helped the center-right Mr. Macri secure a controversial $57 billion IMF loan.
And when it comes to the restructuring of the outstanding debt, there is good reason to think that Mr. Milei’s friendship with Mr. Trump will again make a difference, predicted Joaquín Morales Sola, a prominent columnist for the La Nacion daily.
But it would be a mistake to expect the incoming president to exempt Argentina from his “America First” agenda simply to benefit a friend 5,000 miles to the south, Mr. Morales Sola warned, as Mr. Macri learned when his American counterpart floated his $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan in 2018.
“Many of the investors [active] in developing countries took all their dollars to the United States and left Argentina in a crisis, without credit,” the commentator recalled. “Of course, it wasn’t a decision Trump made thinking of Macri, but it affected him.”
And particularly on the sensitive issue of trade, Mr. Milei shares much less ideological common ground with the tariff-loving Mr. Trump than did Mr. Macri, Mr. Morales Sola noted.
“Milei takes a position of openness of the economies; President Trump, as everybody knows, has a more protectionist position,” he said. “That’s where they’ll clash.”
Broad realignment
Beyond matters economic and financial, however, it is Mr. Milei’s broad realignment of Argentine foreign policy that will likely shape the bond between the two men, said Tomas Mugica, a political scientist who teaches international relations at Buenos Aires’ Catholic University of Argentina.
Over competing Chinese and Indian offers, Mr. Milei acquired 24 F-16 fighter jets from NATO ally Denmark; has asked to join the alliance as a “global partner;” is seeking Argentina’s OECD membership; and has welcomed high-ranking U.S. military officials to strategically important South Atlantic bases, Mr. Mugica detailed. In 2023, Mr. Milei abruptly withdrew Argentina’s application to join the BRICS grouping, a loose alliance dominated by China and Russia that is seen in Washington as an explicit challenge to American global standing.
“The decisions Milei has taken up until now — without Trump in power — will have an impact,” he said. “He’s made very strong gestures of alignment with the United States, and that could well intensify during the Trump presidency.”
The newfound closeness with Washington contrasts sharply with the skeptical views held by leftist former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, still Mr. Milei’s main domestic rival, but may go beyond even the close ties then-Presidents Carlos Menem and George H.W. Bush established in the early 1990s.
“The alignment with the United States is more pronounced than the one Menem had [and] includes [close ties with] Israel, which really changes Argentina’s place in the world,” political scientist Marcos Novaro said.
Beyond policy, politics may explain why — in a region still dominated by center-left and leftist leaders with whom he shares little ideological overlap — Mr. Milei would tie himself to Mr. Trump, Mr. Novaro added.
“It plays down the fact that Latin America isn’t like that,” he said. “This departure from the region isn’t a problem for Milei because he’s on a different, more global wavelength.”
And in many ways, Mr. Milei and Mr. Trump are simply cut from the same cloth, political strategist Gabriel Slavinsky said.
“Both presidents are outsiders [and] provocative, disruptive, firm in their convictions and genuine when they express what they think and feel,” Mr. Slavinsky listed. “In political terms, [such an] affinity can produce bonds of friendship that help strike a balance and find agreement.”
Risky bet
But staking too much on one personal relationship may be a dangerous game for Mr. Milei, especially because he and Mr. Trump share a volatile history of turning one-time political allies into bitter enemies — and the other way around.
Mr. Trump has famously derided his former defense secretary, former Marine Gen. James Mattis, as “the world’s most overrated general,” and his former national security adviser, John Bolton, as “one of the dumbest people in Washington.” Former Vice President Mike Pence and six of Mr. Trump’s Cabinet-level officials from his first four years in office did not back his bid for a second term.
During his first year in office, meanwhile, Mr. Milei, replaced some four dozen of his top government officials, including his Cabinet chief and foreign minister. And, much like Mr. Trump, Mr. Milei has had a very public falling out with his 2023 running mate and current vice president, Victoria Villaruel.
“This fight has a rich history that begins at the end of the [2023 presidential] campaign, with some posters on which they put Victoria Villaruel in the foreground,” Mr. Slavinsky detailed.
Escalating the bad blood, Mr. Milei later reneged on his promise to let Ms. Villaruel run two key areas — defense and national security — and their spat has now reached the point where he now considers her a political opponent, Mr. Slavinsky added.
Given the clash with a second-in-line he once called “brilliant, trustworthy and honest,” Mr. Milei would do well to remember that “friendships” between politicians — and world leaders — tend to be strategic, political scientist Simon Koschut’s research suggests.
“It’s easy to forget that this kind of ’friendship,’ in truth, is only based on shared interests,” Mr. Koschut, who chairs the department of security policy at Germany’s Zeppelin University, said. “And when these shared interests disappear — due to economic constraints, international political differences, what have you — the friendship is gone, too, which can quickly lead to misunderstandings.”
In the case of the famously “transactional” Mr. Trump, for example, French President Emmanuel Macron came to regret his attempt to foster a sense of “bromance” with his American counterpart, Mr. Koschut argued.
But the example of former President Ronald Reagan’s closeness with then-British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher shows that “authentic, personal ties that merit the term ’friendship’” do exist on the world stage, Mr. Koschut said. And Reagan’s relationship with then-Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, which put an end to the arms race of the early 1980s, suggests that, on occasion, personal ties even have the power to alter the relations between nations, he added.
As one of three foreign leaders expected to attend Monday’s inauguration, a first since 1789, Mr. Milei, meanwhile, is set to make history alongside Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and El Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele.
But whether the warm feelings between the U.S. and Argentine leaders stand the test of time remains to be seen.
“We’ll see how much this harmony helps him with the concrete matters he has to tackle,” Mr. Novaro said. “But in principle, I’d say it’s got to be useful.”