Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has resisted political pressure and endured withering criticism from both parties during his tumultuous 15 months in office, leaving some legal analysts surprised that he is preparing to knuckle under to demands to indict former President Trump.
Mr. Bragg, a Harvard-educated lawyer and the first Black man to serve as Manhattan’s District Attorney, has been beset by controversies almost immediately since taking office in January 2022. Those disputes have spurred calls for Mr. Bragg to backtrack on his decisions, which he has ignored.
Now Mr. Bragg is heading for his most contentious action so far, the potential arrest and indictment of Mr. Trump. Prosecutors in his office this week are expected to charge the former president with falsifying business records to conceal hush money paid to silence an alleged mistress. Mr. Trump has repeatedly denied the affair and any wrongdoing surrounding the payment.
It would be the first time a former president has ever been charged with a crime.
Mr. Bragg earlier had abandoned the hush money angle, even as he moved forward with a case against the Trump Organization without charging the former president himself.
The two prosecutors leading the investigation into Mr. Trump’s business practices abruptly resigned in that case, citing Mr. Bragg’s unwillingness to indict the former president, according to a book by one of the former prosecutors.
Mr. Bragg and his team had concerns about the strength of evidence and the credibility of a key witness in the hush money probe, according to the book by former prosecutor Mark Pomernatz that was released last month. The book sparked fury among Democrats and the media. And suddenly, the prosecution over falsifying records appeared to pick up steam.
State, federal and local prosecutors, including Mr. Bragg’s predecessor Cyrus Vance, all passed on filing charges in the hush-money case.
Jonathan Turley, who teaches constitutional law at George Washington University, said Mr. Bragg halted pushing the case to a grand jury until Mr. Pomerantz’s book was released.
“It worked. Bragg caved to the overwhelming political pressure. Bragg has reduced the criminal justice system to prosecution by plebiscite,” he said.
Mr. Turley also slammed the book as “highly unprofessional and improper” because it made a public case for charging someone who was not indicted or convicted.
Jonas Marton, national justice director for Dream.Org, which advocates for criminal justice reform, ran against Mr. Bragg for district attorney and later endorsed him. He said Mr. Bragg has the fortitude to withstand political pressures, saying that’s a sign of the strong case against Mr. Trump.
“This case is moving forward because DA Bragg believes there is strong evidence and because he believes it can be a successful prosecution,” he said. “There are a lot of Democrats who wanted him to indict Trump sooner, but he didn’t believe the facts called for it.”
Mr. Bragg came under fire almost immediately after taking office for issuing a controversial memo which fueled criticism that he is soft on crime. The memo said his office would no longer prosecute nonviolent crimes, including dodging subway fares and resisting arrest.
It also called for prosecutors to treat certain armed robberies as misdemeanor petty larcenies if there is no risk of physical harm, and to forbid pretrial bail except in “very serious cases.”
In the memo, Mr. Bragg said the policies aimed to decriminalize poverty and mental illness, as well as balance fairness and public safety.
The memo prompted scathing responses from New York Mayor Eric Adams, a Democrat, and Police Commissioner Keechant Sewell, who said the new agenda could encourage violence against police officers.
Mr. Bragg never fully backed away from the memo but did clarify that any robbery with a gun would be charged as a felony, and his office would prosecute any who harms police officers. He said the memo created “confusion” over his policies.
Criticism over Mr. Bragg only intensified after six NYPD officers were shot within his first few weeks in office.
“His tenure got off to a rough start. He got knocked down really hard and attacked from all sides politically,” Mr. Marton said. “When he got knocked down, I’ve been impressed with how he bounced back and brought in respected DAs to run departments and shake off the bad press.”
But soon Mr. Bragg found himself under fire for his soft-on-crime policies. In his first year, he downgraded 52% of felonies to misdemeanors, according to data from his office. That was up from 47% in 2021 and 35% in 2020. Meanwhile, he only increased 8% of misdemeanors in 2022, compared to 9% in 2021 and 12% in 2020.
He downgraded charges while crime soared nearly 30% in his first year.
Those policies drew fierce criticism from Mr. Adams, a former police captain, and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, also a Democrat.
Mr. Adams said under Bragg’s policies, “there is no appropriate response to [criminals’] bad behavior” and later added that an offender must try really hard to end up in a New York prison.
Despite those criticisms, Mr. Bragg has shown little desire to reverse course and push for stronger penalties. So far, this year violent crime in New York has dipped slightly. Murders are down 18.5% and robberies have decreased by 2% compared to the same period in 2022. However, assaults are up by 10.4% compared to the same period last year.
But the criticism Mr. Bragg has faced for his crime policies will pale in comparison to the media circus that is expected to erupt with any Trump indictment.
Even leftist comedians are warning that arresting Mr. Trump could only increase his popularity among voters and backfire on Democrats.
“Do you know this is only going to make him more popular? It’s like arresting Tupac. He’s just going to sell more records. Are you stupid?” comedian Chris Rock joked at a Kennedy Center event attended by some Biden administration officials in Washington on Sunday.
And Mr. Trump himself has accused Mr. Bragg of breaking the law, saying he has interfered in the 2024 presidential election. Mr. Trump has already declared himself a candidate for the Republican nomination for president.
“It is the District Attorney of Manhattan who is breaking the law,” Mr. Trump said on his Truth Social platform. “Alvin Bragg should be held accountable for the crime of ‘interference in a presidential election.’”
Republicans on Capitol Hill are demanding testimony from members of Mr. Bragg’s office if he indicts Mr. Trump. Other Republicans have also demanded he appear before Congress.
“I think we should hear Alvin Bragg testify before Congress, under oath, about his vision and the fact that this is wildly political and the fact that this was not pursued by federal courts and the fact that the Department of Justice passed on this,” said Elise Stefanik, New York Republican.
It is unlikely Mr. Bragg or his subordinates would answer questions about an ongoing investigation or prosecution.
Mr. Turley said it is surprising that prosecutors would resurrect the case, saying it is problematic. The alleged crime took place in 2016, so the two-year statute of limitations for the misdemeanor charge of falsifying records has long since elapsed, and the five-year felony statute of limitations also has expired.
Prosecutors will rely on the testimony of Michael Cohen, Mr. Trump’s former fixer who has pleaded guilty to tax evasion and lying to Congress. That could create some credibility issues for the case’s star witness.
But a jury pool comprised of liberal Manhattanites could be angling to convict the former president, Mr. Turley said.
“This is one of the worst jury pools that Trump could possibly face. Moreover, for a state judge to dismiss this case may be viewed as a matter of self-immolation,” he said. “If allowed to go to trial, there is an obvious risk of conviction but it would trigger a robust appeal. Win or lose, Bragg has already scored politically, but it comes as a prohibitive cost for the legal system.”
Norm Eisen, an attorney and former diplomat, called Mr. Bragg’s potential prosecution against the former president “an open and shut case.” During a press conference Monday hosted by the liberal Congressional Integrity Project, Mr. Eisen predicted prosecutors could successfully elevate the case to a felony.
“The hush money case is a serious one. This is a powerful open and shut case,” he said, adding that Mr. Bragg has “good arguments” to convict the former president.
• Jeff Mordock can be reached at jmordock@washingtontimes.com.