BANGKOK, Thailand — Job opening: Prime minister.
Must be able to end Thailand’s cycle of coups by not provoking Thailand’s U.S.-trained, putsch-empowered military. And must be able to induce junta-appointed senators into supporting the next government, end the country’s deep ideological splits, right a struggling economy and continue Bangkok’s delicate balancing of relations with the superpower rivals China and the U.S.
Unfortunately for Pita Limjaroenrat, whose reformist Move Forward Party was the surprise big winner in the country’s May 14 general election, a voter fraud “criminal case” brought against him late last week by the national Election Commission has cast an ominous cloud over his hopes to become prime minister and restore civilian rule after a decade dominated by military-backed junta. The 42-year-old, U.S.-educated Mr. Pita faces a jail term of up to 10 years and a ban on political office for twice that long that if convicted.
And though Mr. Pita’s party stunned pundits by taking a 38% plurality of the vote last month, he is vulnerable because his nationwide election victory was buoyed by idealistic, anti-military voters most likely to antagonize the generals and royalists facing a loss of power.
Mr. Pita’s win, coupled with the 28% for Pheu Thai, a second party with ties to past civilian-run governments, sounded alarms bells throughout Thailand’s increasingly insecure army establishment.
Outwardly, Mr. Pita and his supporters express confidence the case won’t derail their hopes of forming a new government with Mr. Pita as prime minister.
“MFP is still confident that people power will win in the end, and the election commission will work honestly based on constitutional principles,” party Secretary General Chaitawat Tulathon told reporters over the weekend.
But put on the khaki uniform of a politically entrenched general, and it is easy to understand why one might regard Mr. Pita’s election as an existential challenge to one’s hold on power.
Mr. Pita campaigned to strip army officers of political power and their lucrative commercial enterprises, end conscription, dissolve the democracy-blocking, regime-appointed 250-seat Senate, and dismantle the murky Internal Security Command, created by the U.S. CIA in the frigid depths of the Cold War.
“There certainly appears to be a conservative campaign in Thailand to diminish Pita’s popularity,” said Paul Chambers, a Naresuan University lecturer specializing in military and democratization in Asia, in an interview. “This is because Pita is vehemently opposed by the traditional forces of monarchy and military in Thailand.”
Mr. Pita’s victory gave him 151 seats, cheered by most who voted on May 14 for Parliament’s House of Representatives.
Many voters appeared fed up with the military’s rule, imprisonments, censorship, and manipulation of politics after the army’s coups in 2006 and 2014. A new party founded by current Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, a former army chief who spearheaded the 2014 coup, managed to get just 12.5% of the vote and 36 seats.
Chillingly for some generals, polls showed many conscripts voted for the MFP.
While the domestic political battles hang in the balance, the election is not likely to signal a major shift in Bangkok’s foreign policy balancing act. Whatever coalition government forms is expected to continue to cultivate both the U.S. and China and deflect perceptions that Bangkok leans one way or the other.
Constitutional roadblock
Along with his new legal woes, Mr. Pita is wrestling with the junta’s 2017 constitution, pushed through by Mr. Prayuth in a bid to cement the military’s hold on power. That charter’s restrictions on elected politicians — and its creation of a 250-seat Senate entirely appointed by the government — could stop Mr. Pita in his tracks. The next prime minister will have to win a majority of the combined Senate and the 500-seat House to form a government, meaning Mr. Pita will likely need to woo at least some confrontational, junta-appointed senators into backing his coalition.
Many analysts predict the Senate will ultimately block Mr. Pita from the top job, setting up a period of deep uncertainty for this longtime U.S. Southeast Asian ally.
Meanwhile, the Election Commission’s “probe could doom Pita,” the Bangkok Post reported on Sunday.
“Heavier [political] weapons are being transported into this warzone, meaning the ‘151 anti-aircraft guns’ are just the beginning,” said former election commissioner Somchai Srisutthiyakorn, referring to Section 151 of the election concerning Parliament that has been deployed against Mr. Pita. Under Section 151, it is illegal for a person to run for election in Parliament while knowing they are unqualified because of a conflict of interest, financial fraud, or other reasons.
The Move Forward party leader has faced charges of possibly violating Section 151 when he initially ran for Parliament in 2019. Mr. Pita’s case focuses on his handling of his late father’s 42,000 shares in a Bangkok-based media company, iTV, which Mr. Pita inherited in 2006.
To convict Mr. Pita, the Election Commission would need evidence he “was knowingly aware” that any candidate who holds stock shares in a media company is disqualified from running for Parliament.
“Nobody is playing dirty politics,” said Sen. Seree Suwanpanon, responding to claims that the iTV case is intentionally being used to destroy Mr. Pita’s political career.
“Pita stumbled on his own feet, but blamed others for crossing his legs,” Mr. Seree contended.
An editorial cartoon in the Bangkok Post on Monday showed Mr. Pita desperately fleeing toward the prime minister’s office, chased by a half-naked zombie with an oversized head shaped like a battered television screen labeled iTV.
“The Walking Dead!” read the cartoon’s caption.
If the Election Commission convicts Mr. Pita of a criminal offense, it can forward the case to Bangkok’s Criminal Court for trial and possible punishment, a move critics see as hypocritical given the pass afforded to the current prime minister.
“Neither the Election Commission or the court has ever cast doubt that perhaps Prayuth, as a former coup-maker and junta leader, should not be qualified to compete as a prime minister candidate — never,” wrote columnist Pravit Rojanaphruk.
Move Forward Party officials have already rejected any suggestion that a new election be held in light of the charges against Mr. Pita, But in a move widely perceived as clumsy, too late, and suspicious, Mr. Pita said last week that he recently sold the 42,000 shares to his relatives in a bid to quell the controversy.
The case took another twist this week when a purported video surfaced of iTV’s shareholder meeting, which allegedly does not match the company’s transcript of what was said at a 2023 gathering describing its current status as a media company.
Bad choices
If Mr. Pita fails to become prime minister, angry protests might again bloody Bangkok’s streets, led by his supporters, according to widespread warnings. But if Mr. Pita succeeds, he could face similarly disruptive and deadly street protests led by his opponents.
Grim warnings and veiled threats of urban violence, voiced by both sides, are also purportedly being used to pressure politicians and institutions into agreeing with various backroom political deals.
In Thailand, crippled by more than a dozen coups since the 1930s, another putsch is always a possibility during turbulent times.
“Army Chief Gen. Narongpan Jitkaewthae said just days before the May 14 general election that he cannot promise that the army will stay in the barracks if there is political turmoil,” Mr. Pravit, the columnist, said. “The only way to defeat yet another possible coup attempt is to have enough people on the streets willing to be imprisoned — 100,000 or more, at least.”
But after an election that appeared to clarify Thailand’s troubled political stalemate, the commission’s investigation of Mr. Pita could drag on for months — and a criminal court case could take years. That may allow Mr. Prayuth to stay on as caretaker prime minister until the case is settled.
“This is important because the next prime minister will oversee the selection of the new army, navy, air force, and supreme commanders and police commander — all of which must be confirmed by September 30,” Mr. Chambers said.
Alternatively, Mr. Pita could become prime minister but later be disqualified if the case goes against him.
If Mr. Pita does go down, many Thai voters might experience a case of deja vu: A Constitutional Court in 2009 ousted then-Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, purportedly of a conflict of interest when he hosted a TV cooking show.
“The real stumbling block, that is likely to negate Mr. Pita’s quest for the prime ministerial post, is the senators, many of them active and retired military officers and civil servants who dread the Move Forward Party’s ‘radical’ policies,” wrote columnist Veera Prateepchaikul this week.
Mr. Pita said his eight-party coalition has 312 House of Representatives seats, short of the 376-seat majority he would need if no senators supported his government. Given the constitution’s relatively untested state, no one knows how many senators will support him. The pro-regime Senate could side with the army and combine its bloc with other, smaller House parties looking to fashion a governing coalition.
If they form a coalition totaling more than 376, likely prime ministers could include Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, an industrialist leading the popular Bhum Jai Thai — Proud to be Thai — party.
Mr. Anutin’s fame swelled when he helped turn Thailand on to legalized cannabis last year by leading the push to delete it from a list of “narcotics.” The BJT snagged 71 seats in the election, making him a prized swing bloc.
Mr. Anutin proudly offered to join any coalition which kept cannabis legal, but kept his distance from Mr. Pita and others who want cannabis returned to the narcotics list.
“I would say that Anutin, the leader of the Bhum Jai Thai party, has the best chance in the end,” Mr. Chambers said. The BJT, he noted, “was part of Prayuth’s coalition government. He is acceptable to the Election Commission, Senate, and all political parties, except for the Move Forward Party.”
If Mr. Anutin becomes prime minister, he “would provide civilian camouflage to the status quo of continuing monarchy-military dominance,” Mr. Chambers said.
Still, the clear victory of the civilian-led reform parties makes any arrangement that denies them power perilous, warned Kasit Piromya, who served as foreign minister in civilian governments before the 2014 military takeover.
The combined victories of Move Forward and Pheu Thai are “overwhelming and clear-cut and decisive, indicating and confirming that the majority of the people wanted change, wanted genuine democracy, and as such the people had rejected old-styled politics, military presence in politics, and the present constitution of 2017 which puts Thailand in a quasi-democratic and quasi-authoritarian situation,” he said.