SEOUL, South Korea — South Koreans are overwhelmingly expected to elect as the country’s new president Tuesday a veteran liberal politician who has advocated over his long career for closer relations with China and North Korea. But political pundits and analysts in Seoul say Lee Jae-myung, who has a massive lead in most polls, still lacks a mandate to radically change the country’s alliance with the U.S.
Polls have the 61-year-old Mr. Lee, the liberal Democratic Party of Korea’s candidate, running far ahead of the conservative People Power Party’s Kim Moon-soo, with aggregated data putting Mr. Lee at 47.2%, Mr. Kim at 38.1% and third runner Lee Jun-seok — a young right-winger heading the minority Reform Party — at 9.7%.
Mr. Lee’s looming election — considered all but a done deal in South Korea — has raised alarm among some American defense hawks. On the American Enterprise Institute’s website, Korea-watcher Nicholas Eberstadt accused Mr. Lee of a “romantic fascination with China and the CCP” and wondered if Seoul would become “a runaway ally.”
But Wi Sung-lac, a DPK foreign policy expert and a member of South Korea’s unicameral legislature, the National Assembly, preached calm. He told The Washington Times that Mr. Lee is not “pro-Chinese,” adding, “We don’t believe we need to tilt back to China.”
Both while Mr. Lee and his top opponent, Mr. Kim, each promised to strengthen ties with the U.S., Mr. Lee has sharply criticized ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol’s aggressive stance on China. Mr. Lee, even after moving to the middle politically, promised to dial-back the anti-China rhetoric. “I will stabilize and manage” relations with China, he’s told voters.
That campaign-stump talk has some Washington conservatives worried, but Seoul pundits point out that there were similar concerns during the five-year term of liberal president Moon Jae-in, in office from 2017 to 2022. Relations with the United States survived despite Mr. Moon’s multiple meetings with North Korea’s leader.
Tuesday’s election comes two years earlier than expected after being moved up on the calendar due to the impeachment earlier this year of President Yoon.
Lawmakers removed Mr. Yoon after his ill-fated attempt in December to declare martial law.
The political crisis that followed split Mr. Yoon’s party, the PPP — and though Mr. Kim, Mr. Yoon’s labor minister, won the party’s primary, his candidacy has not restored public confidence in the conservatives.
A glimmer of hope for the PPP flickered briefly when Prime Minister Han Duck-soo stepped forward three weeks ago: The middle-of-the-road technocrat polled far north of Mr. Kim.
The two, however, failed to agree on a unified candidacy; and Mr. Han dropped out. Nor did Mr. Kim reach an arrangement with Mr. Lee, a former PPP member.
Adding to the PPP’s woes, they are a minority in the National Assembly, which will not hold its next elections until 2028. Tuesday’s election results could sideline Korea’s conservatives from political power for at least three years.
One-party control in Seoul with Mr Lee calling the shots could spell trouble for relations with the U.S.
“What I am concerned about is, if Lee consolidates his power base to be undisputed leader, he is going to have full power with no balances or checks,” said Yang Sun-mook, who has been a foreign affairs adviser to both major parties. “He is going to make his own kingdom.”
From hard left to center right?
With the presidency in sight, Mr. Lee – who has lost two previous tilts at the title — has toned down his fiery persona and more extreme policies in recent months.
Mr. Lee grew up in extreme poverty, overcoming severe difficulties to become a lawyer. Entering politics, he was a successful local mayor and provincial governor before taking the DPK’s helm.
A no-nonsense executive, his bruising political style made enemies along the way. Several aides have committed suicide, and he is hounded by allegations of corrupt practices, accusations that he has illegally sent funds to North Korea and charges that he lied in previous elections.
But he has triumphed against all manner of lawfare, and if elected, he gains presidential immunity from any further charges short of insurrection or treason.
A trip to North Korea, a chummy meeting with China’s ambassador, remarks blaming NATO for Russia’s Ukraine invasion and his repeated calls to re-jig Seoul’s relationships with Beijing and Moscow have horrified conservatives.
“I don’t think he has had any close relations with Americans — not with politicians, not with anyone,” said Mr. Yang. “But he has several ties with China and North Korea.”
Realistically, however, he has limited wriggle room for any attempt to transform the geopolitics of South Korea.
The country’s landmark security alliance with the U.S. has massive support: Over 71%, per the most recent poll. That is a strong reality check.
And more recent polls have found that Koreans’ customary historical animosity toward Japan has been overtaken by a surging dislike of China.
These factors may explain Mr. Lee’s rebranding as a middle-of-the-road centrist.
In February, he rechristened the liberal DPK as a “center-right party,” He has made real policy changes, such as dropping a longstanding opposition to nuclear power.
He has also held a photo opportunity with the acting U.S. ambassador to Seoul and repeatedly underscored the import of the U.S. alliance.
A blowhard anti-Japanese orator, he has committed to maintaining the trilateral Seoul-Tokyo-Washington security arrangements, pioneered by Mr. Yoon, that have enjoyed particularly strong support on Capitol Hill.
Some worry Mr. Lee’s reformist tendencies could damage the chaebol, the giant industrial conglomerates like Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Motor that form the backbone of Korea’s export-based economy.
Others say reforms to corporate governance are overdue, and could chip away at the “Korean Discount” — Korea Inc.’s traditionally low stock valuations and dividends.
“Perception abroad is that these companies are great,” said Daniel Tudor, a former advisor to the Moon government. “But if you are a small shareholder, you may not capture the value of your investment; the [company] chairman may capture the value.”
A man of many faces
Opinion is divided over whether Mr. Lee’s rightward shift is legitimate or tactical.
“He is a smart guy, and an operator,” said Mr. Tudor, also the author of “Korea: The Impossible Country.” “I think he will be more moderate in power than out of it.”
“He is a known populist among lower and middle-class people,” reckoned Mr. Yang. “There is no way he is going to insist on far-left policies.”
Others are less sure.
“I assume that once elected, because his party has the House, his move to the center will turn out to be an election strategy and there will be a move back to the left,” said Michael Breen, author of “The New Koreans.” “But how that will manifest, I don’t know.”
Mr. Yang admitted one fear related to the current U.S. administration, which is expected to reach out to the new Korean president on issues ranging from the role of U.S. troops in the region to tariffs.
“Trump is not like previous presidents, he is a business dealer,” he said. “I don’t know if Lee is fully aware of his tendencies, so if he is a little radical toward the Trump administration, that worries me a little bit.”
Self-described conservatives are more scathing about the DPK candidate.
“He is a real fake person: Nobody should trust him!” said K.B. Yoon, a Seoul-based academic with close connections to senior conservatives.
“I am sure he is controlled by North Korea and China, a puppet — like an actor who cannot refuse orders!”
Mr. Yoon — like many supporters of the impeached Mr. Yoon (no relation) — is also convinced that both polling companies and the National Election Commission are corrupt.
Hwang Kyo-ahn, a conservative ex-premier, raised allegations this weekend that early voting has been fraudulent.
Mr. Yoon claimed he had data, the accuracy of which The Washington Times could not confirm, that indicated at least three voter districts have reported over 100% returns.
If the DPK captures both the House and the presidency, Mr. Yoon anticipates right-wingers taking to the streets.
That is hardly unusual in Korea.
The impeachment crisis saw massive, noisy demonstrations by both left and right, but — bar one court invasion — all was peaceful.
That may not last.
“I think there will be blood in the streets,” he warned.
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.