Kari Lake is the clear front-runner in the Republican primary for Arizona’s U.S. Senate race — but the Trump-inspired MAGA firebrand is falling behind Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego ahead of a potential general election showdown.
Mr. Gallego, who is running unopposed in the Democratic primary, has a 46% to 36% lead over Ms. Lake, with 19% of voters still on the fence, according to an Arizona Public Opinion Pulse survey from Noble Predictive Insights.
The survey of registered voters showed Mr. Gallego holds a 16 percentage point lead over Ms. Lake among independents — a crucial voting bloc that accounts for a third of the state’s electorate.
The Democrat also is viewed more favorably than Ms. Lake two years after her polarizing gubernatorial run rubbed many voters — including longtime admirers of late Sen. John McCain — the wrong way.
“Ruben Gallego’s lead in the general election, especially among independents, highlights the challenges Lake would face in a broader contest,” said Mike Noble, founder of Noble Predictive Insights. “Democrats are more unified than Republicans at this stage, which gives Gallego an advantage.”
Ms. Lake and Mr. Gallego are running to replace Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, the Democrat-turned-independent who decided not to seek reelection. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb also is seeking the GOP Senate nomination.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report ranks the race as “lean Democrat.”
Ms. Lake’s campaign and pollsters with McLaughlin & Associates this week released a memo saying internal polling shows the race is tied. They said the former television news anchor will benefit from linking her political fortunes to former President Donald Trump, who has held a consistent lead over President Biden in Arizona.
“There is no Senate candidate in the country that is more closely aligned with President Trump than Kari Lake,” the memo reads. “Since 2016, the winning parties for both offices were the same nationwide — a first in the modern history of the Senate chamber. This phenomenon almost repeated itself in 2020, with one exception, Susan Collins in Maine.”
The memo says Mr. Gallego has no more room to grow his support and the Lake campaign is starting a media buy to “define Ruben Gallego as the Far-Left candidate he truly is.”
“Once voters know that Gallego has been a rubber stamp for Biden, those undecided voters will coalesce behind Kari Lake,” it reads.
The poll, released Thursday, shows Ms. Lake’s support in the GOP primary against Mr. Lamb has slipped from 54% in February to 46% this month.
Mr. Lamb’s support held steady at 21%, and the percentage of undecided voters has climbed to 25% from 17%.
“Something we don’t typically see is an increase in undecided voters this close to primary election day,” Mr. Noble said. “While Lake remains the frontrunner, her diminishing lead and the growing number of undecided voters indicate a volatile race.”
Perhaps more worrisome for Ms Lake is that she is viewed less favorably than Mr. Trump across numerous demographic groups — including Republicans, independents and women voters.
Mr. Trump claimed the 2020 election was rigged after he lost Arizona to Mr. Biden by just over 10,000 voters.
Ms. Lake did the same after she lost the 2022 gubernatorial race to Democrat Katie Hobbs by a similar margin.
The Noble Predictive Insights survey of 1,003 registered voters in Arizona was conducted from May 7-14, 2024, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.09 percentage points.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.