QUNEITRA, Syria — Israel’s deepening military incursions into Syrian territory are adding a new layer of uncertainty and instability at a critical juncture for Damascus, as Syria’s untested new leaders try to navigate the way forward in the wake of the stunning collapse of the long-ruling Bashar Assad regime.
While Israeli officials frame these actions as necessary for national security, the developments complicate U.S. strategy in the region. The new Trump administration faces the challenge of balancing unwavering support for Israel with broader goals of maintaining regional stability, countering Iranian influence, and managing alliances with other key players like Turkey.
President Trump, who before his inauguration expressed a strong desire to keep the U.S. out of the unfolding drama in Syria, may find himself dragged in even deeper, some analysts warn.
In Quneitra, the nominal regional capital near the Golan Heights, Israeli forces have intensified their presence, leaving residents feeling trapped and displaced. Two Israeli tanks moved into the Quneitra Governorate district on January 25, combing key infrastructure areas before withdrawing. The presence of tank tracks and military activity provoked discontent among local residents, who fear another wave of displacement may be coming.
Seham Alali, a clerk at Al-Golan National Hospital, lamented, “These incursions feel like another occupation, one that risks displacing us all over again.”
Captain Ghassan Al-Aswad of the Quneitra police added that Israeli actions have paralyzed local authorities, with government buildings under Israeli control and civilians afraid to approach patrols.
Satellite imagery obtained by BBC Verify corroborates eyewitness reports of new Israeli construction within the demilitarized buffer zone. The images, captured on January 21, reveal recently built structures, vehicles and a road extending about a half-mile into the zone.
BBC analysts identified trenches and fortifications, indicating preparations for a possible long-term presence — a direct violation of the 1974 ceasefire agreement between Israel and Syria which established the demilitarized buffer zone and authorized a United Nations peacekeeping force to police it.
Ayman Abdel Nour, a Syrian politician in exile, emphasized the rationale of the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for these actions: “The Israelis are deeply suspicious of the interim Syrian leadership due to the history of jihadist groups in Idlib,” he said. “They see parallels between these groups and [Gaza-based] Hamas, fearing the rise of another Islamist entity at their border.”
The Netanyahu government, taken by surprise by the Hamas Oct. 7, 2023 rampage across southern Israel, has used the crisis since then to strike back at Iran and other hostile forces in the region, including entrenched Hezbollah fighters on the country’s northern border with Lebanon.
Mr. Abdel Nour told The Washington Times that provocative rhetoric by some jihadist groups, such as declarations at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus about advancing toward Jerusalem, only heightens Israeli suspicions.
“Statements like these make Israel even more hesitant to trust Syria’s interim government,” he added.
Mr. Abdel Nour also noted the cautious stance of Syria’s interim leader, former rebel leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, whose Hayat Tahrir al-Sham movement once had ties to al Qeada but is now trying to forge a more moderate image.
“Al-Sharaa has refrained from clashing with Israeli forces or condemning their actions outright, signaling a desire for stability,” he said. “But his hands are tied without full national consensus, limiting the interim government’s ability to act decisively.”
Adding to the regional complexity, Turkey continues military operations in the heavily Kurdish areas of northeastern Syria. These actions target the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Ankara views as an extension of the PKK, a designated terrorist organization in Turkey.
Turkish forces have launched airstrikes and cross-border incursions, creating a precarious situation for civilians and further straining U.S.-Turkey relations.
Delicate position
Washington, which has supported the SDF in the fight against Islamic State militants, finds itself in a delicate position as it attempts to maintain its alliance with Turkey while addressing humanitarian concerns in Kurdish-controlled areas. The simultaneous Israeli and Turkish military actions highlight the fragility of U.S. influence in post-Assad Syria.
In a significant move, Syrian authorities recently seized a weapons shipment destined for Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. The shipment, intercepted near the Sarghaya border area, included assault rifles, rocket-propelled grenades and ammunition, according to Syria’s state-run SANA news agency.
The seizure marked a radical departure from the Assad regime’s policies, which allowed the country to be a “Land bridge” for covert Iranian supplies to its military allies around the region.
“Under Ahmad al-Sharaa’s leadership, Syria is signaling a break from its past and a commitment to limiting Iran’s influence,” said a senior Syrian official on condition of anonymity.
The seizure aimed to reassure Israel and the United States of Syria’s intent to assert state control over arms transfers. “This is part of a broader strategy to establish sovereignty and distance Syria from Iran’s destabilizing activities,” the official added.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the need for a coordinated approach to the region during his recent confirmation hearing. Mr. Rubio highlighted the importance of protecting minority rights in Syria and expressed continued support for the SDF in their fight against ISIS.
“We must address Israel’s security concerns while supporting legitimate Syrian leadership and countering Iranian influence,” Mr. Rubio said.
In a call with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan after being confirmed last week, Mr. Rubio underscored the need for an inclusive transition in Syria, stressing the importance of a political process that includes all segments of Syrian society to ensure lasting stability.
Mr. Rubio’s stance reflects Washington’s broader goal of fostering a comprehensive political solution in Syria while managing tensions with regional allies such as Israel and Turkey.
But few question the fragility of regional dynamics, complicating U.S. efforts to navigate the post-Assad landscape. The Israeli border activity is just adding to the tension, officials in Damascus say.
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani called for Israeli withdrawal from newly occupied areas, emphasizing that Syria no longer poses a threat after removing Iranian-backed forces. “Syria is committed to the disengagement agreement along the border,” Mr. al-Shibani said, urging the international community to pressure Israel to respect Syrian sovereignty.
For its part, Israel justifies its actions as necessary for national security. “The IDF’s presence in these areas is temporary until Syria’s intentions become clearer,” said an Israeli defense official.
Amid these geopolitical calculations, the human cost remains stark.
“The fear of displacement is very real,” said Mutaz Qablan Hassoun, a 49-year-old resident of Hadar, a southern Syrian village now occupied by the IDF. “The Israeli army’s practices — such as firing on civilians in farming areas — disrupt our lives and create a constant sense of limbo.”
Despite these challenges, local communities are striving to rebuild. Community councils and Druze spiritual leaders have maintained communication with Damascus to address residents’ concerns and mitigate the impact of the incursions.
“The Israeli forces justify their presence as a security measure, but for us, it feels like our livelihoods are under constant threat,” Mr. Hassoun said.
&8226; Jacob Wirtschafter reported from Istanbul.