SEOUL, South Korea — As freezing temperatures add further chill to South Korea’s winter of discontent, overseas experts are fretting over the foreign policy implications of a resurgence of the country’s left wing.
Right-wing President Yoon Suk Yeol is disgraced and disempowered, banned from overseas travel and facing a parliamentary probe for treason. Thanks to his failed autocoup last Tuesday, a return of left-wing governance — likely a more extreme form than any prior Seoul administration — looks inevitable.
That could tilt Seoul away from Washington and Tokyo, and pivot it toward Beijing and Pyongyang.
Concerns already exist that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration undervalues the alliance linking South Korea and the United States. A pro-Beijing shift by Seoul could widen that divide, potentially endangering the 71-year-old partnership.
Korea’s right struggles for traction
Last Tuesday night, Mr. Yoon — beset by low approval ratings, obstruction in the National Assembly and rumors that future impeachment was likely — declared martial law. Special forces deployed to seize the National Assembly and the National Electoral Commission.
SEE ALSO: South Korean prosecutors detain ex-defense chief over martial law imposition
The gambit was almost immediately overturned: Lawmakers breached cordons around the Assembly and voted to overturn the shock decree.
On Saturday, the opposition-controlled Assembly sought Mr. Yoon’s impeachment, but with Mr. Yoon’s People Power Party boycotting the vote, failed — just — to marshal the necessary numbers.
Politics is now in a deadlock.
The PPP has made clear that Mr. Yoon must be disempowered and leave office. However, it has not put forth a timeline for his exit, nor any mechanism.
The leaves the national helm — in the near term — in the hands of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, who has spoken of “an orderly and early resignation” for Mr. Yoon.
Given the president’s continuation in office, the opposition calls the current political situation “bizarre” and destructive of “constitutional order.”
SEE ALSO: U.S. admiral: No signs of North Korean attack plans amid South’s political unrest
Another impeachment motion looks set for Wednesday. The PPP’s maneuvers suggest it is playing for time as it flails for a strategy.
If a presidential election is held imminently, a victory by the opposition Democratic Party of Korea looks assured, giving it free rein in both the executive and the legislature.
As winter descends on the peninsula, the PPP hopes that harsh chills will dissuade protesters. That looks unlikely, given the opposition’s ability to mobilize, per the crowds outside the Assembly last Tuesday and Saturday nights.
Moreover, the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions has vowed rallies in the days ahead. The KCTU initiated protests against conservative President Park Geun-hye in 2016, protests that snowballed massively, ending with her ouster and imprisonment in 2017.
Another theory is that the PPP is hoping legal issues facing the opposition leader, Lee Jae-myung, many relating to alleged corruption from his time as a regional politician, will strike him down prior to Mr. Yoon’s exit.
However, Mr. Lee, arguably the central player in martial law’s overthrow, has successfully overcome multiple legal challenges.
Yet another theory is that the PPP is flexing its remaining political muscle simply to maintain relevance.
Left wing shows its colors
If Mr. Yoon misread his public terribly, the DPK and related minority parties may have erred in their impeachment bill by packaging foreign policy issues.
While the removal of Mr. Yoon is front and central, the bill also reads, “… under the guise of so-called ‘value-based diplomacy,’ the administration has disregarded geopolitical balance, antagonized North Korea, China, and Russia, and adhered to a peculiar Japan-centric foreign policy. This has included appointing Japan-leaning individuals to key government positions. Such policies have …heightened the risk of war, and neglected the state’s duty to ensure national security.”
That is a tough call for conservatives and on Saturday, only three of the DPK’s 108 lawmakers declined to boycott the impeachment vote.
The last left-wing government in Seoul, led by President Moon Jae-in, had more contact with North Korea than any other. It also laid the groundwork for the unprecedented — albeit unsuccessful — summits between then-President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
However, it dragged Seoul-Tokyo relations to a nadir. It overturned a 2015 bilateral agreement on “comfort women” and froze related monies. It refused to allow a visiting Japanese warship to fly its ensign, resulting in it exiting a naval review. At sea, a Korean destroyer locked its target radar on a Japanese aircraft.
After Korean courts threatened to seize Japanese assets to remunerate wartime laborers — a dispute Japan insists was resolved by a 1965 treaty and related reparations — Tokyo reacted by slowing crucial exports of raw materials for South Korean semiconductor makers.
Things changed under Mr. Yoon. Anti-North Korea, he upgraded ties with Washington — winning a nuclear consultative group — and massively upgraded ties with Japan.
American policymakers were delighted. Japan was more measured. Tokyo’s stance, sources told The Washington Times, is rooted in distrust that Seoul can maintain pro-Japan policies.
Today’s Seoul’s deputy foreign minister met Tokyo’s ambassador in a bid to provide assurance, but Mr. Lee’s rising political fortunes cannot be ignored.
Mr. Lee is fierier than Mr. Moon.
He has addressed anti-Japan rallies in Seoul, and called a 2023 Seoul-Tokyo summit, “the most shameful and crushing moment in the history of our foreign relations.” In 2023, he met Beijing’s ambassador to Seoul, who criticized the closeness of Seoul’s alliance with Washington.
“The administration’s foreign policy is now dead in the water,” wrote Jeffery Roberston, who teaches international relations at Seoul’s Yonsei University. “Whoever comes next will have more than enough authority to discard it.”
Mr. Yoon’s non-coordination with Washington last week, notably his failure to notify the Combined Forces Command of troop deployments, offers ammunition to U.S. critics of the alliance.
“Yoon may have unintentionally given advocates of decreased commitment to South Korea a major boon by allowing them to paint Seoul as a rogue and unreliable partner,” the Carnegie Endowment wrote in a commentary.
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.