SEOUL, South Korea — In the hotly disputed waters of the South China Sea, “People’s War” is a game two can play.
In a creative new ploy, Philippine civilian volunteers have assembled and crewed a “Christmas Convoy” of vessels that will set sail into waters west of the archipelago to challenge Chinese seaborne assets patrolling there.
According to reports from the Philippines in recent days, the government’s National Security Council has reversed its earlier stance opposing in the idea as too risky, giving the green light to the convoy being organized by the Atin Ito Coalition, an alliance of civic groups.
Philippine Coast Guard vessels will reportedly escort the civilian fleet, which consists of some 40 vessels led by a “mother ship” capable of holding 100 persons. The convoy will depart the island of Palawan on December 10.
China has been trying to change the game as well: Likely awaiting the convoy in the region is a “swarm” of Chinese fishing vessels yoked together in a possible attempt to frustrate Philippine access to the most contested sites.
There has been popular indignation at expansive Chinese sovereignty claims in recent years to what Manila calls “The West Philippine Sea,” part of a larger regional clash between China and its smaller neighbors over clashing ownership claims in one of the world’s busiest and most strategic commercial waterways. The civilian convoy initiative marks a recognition that the Philippines and its armed forces are massively outgunned in any one-on-one confrontation with Beijing.
“The responsibility is not just on the side of the government: Citizens must do what they can,” Edicio Dela Torre, one of the organizers of the Atin Ito coalition, told a TV interviewer Sunday. “Citizens of different political persuasions are aligned, [so] we must maximize this opportunity to experience and express that we Philippines can get our act together and unite.”
The convoy’s cruise will take it into the vicinity of what has become the tense flashpoint in the Chinese-Philippine battle of wills — the disputed “Second Thomas Shoal.” The makeshift Philippine naval base there is built up around the grounded, rusting hulk of the World War II-era ship, the Sierra Madre. The government of Manila has not given permission for the convoy to call at the disputed shoal directly.
China, which disputes the Philippine claim, has dispatched the People’s Liberation Army Navy to block resupply missions to the Philippine Marines who man the forlorn outpost.
Beijing claims virtually the entire South China Sea, disputing claims from Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam to sovereign controls over parts of the sea.
Beijing has ignored a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague that ruled in Manila’s favor.
The massed Chinese fishing boats have worried Manila, as a new and unusual tactic being tried by Beijing.
“Swarms” of around 135 Chinese fishing boats were filmed off the disputed Whitsun Reef, some 200 miles west of the Philippines, and 641 miles south of China, on December 2. The vessels refused to answer radio challenges by the Philippine Coast Guards.
Among them, a line of 28 vessels is visible, apparently lashed together, beam-to-beam, leaving naval analysts puzzled.
“That’s called ‘rafting,’ and it is something we would normally only do when passing stores, food, fuel or people between ships,” said an officer of a U.S.-allied navy who spoke to The Washington Times on condition of anonymity as he did not have permission to speak to the press.
But there may be at least one potential permanent use.
“If they are over reefs or shoals — and if they all of a sudden sank — then your reef or shoal becomes an immediate island, and could be claimed as a land mass,” he said.
Blue water, grey zone
The unofficial “Christmas Convoy” appears to be guided by the concept that “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.” Repeated and relentless Chinese incursions have infuriated local Filipino fishermen and eroded Manila’s maritime sovereignty claims.
It is an uneven struggle. China’s assets in the South China Sea include sizable elements of the world’s largest fishing fleet and deeply intertwined “maritime militias,” as well as Coast Guard vessels.
China’s navy, the world’s second most powerful naval force after the U.S., has also built up its own artificial military outposts on reefs and shoals in the South China Sea.
Despite its legal wins and the backing of the U.S., the Philippines has thus far struggled to combat the vast resources that Beijing commands in the sovereignty battle. In this hybrid war of nerves fought around islands, islets, reefs and fishing grounds, the “Christmas Convoy” embraces some of the “grey zone” military tactics that China pioneered.
China’s “maritime militias” are believed to be centrally controlled, with the largely civilian fishing vessels reportedly including some PLA veterans among the crews.
According to the U.N.’s Food and Fisheries Organization, China’s fleet numbers 564,000 vessels, more than a tenth of the entire world fleet of 4.1 million vessels.
The Philippines’ response: Two can play at that game.
“This is a civilian initiative,” Mr. Dela Torre told a television interviewer. “But we were already told that [China] will not believe it is an independent civilian initiative … because that is the situation on their side.”
Timing should ensure high spirits. The convoy will set off 15 days prior to Christmas, a holiday celebrated with great gusto in Asia’s most Christian nation. One part of the convoy’s mission will be to deliver Yuletide gifts to the fishermen and soldiers stationed in the region.
But while it may make for a great “David vs Goliath” story, questions loom over how long organizers can keep the effort going.
“The problem with this is, it is temporary: You do a little march out to your reef, then you are back home again a day or two later,” the naval officer said. “How do you sustain?”
The 40 vessels of the convoy plan to be at sea for just three days, indicating China could simply ignore it.
By contrast, China’s vast, world-ranging fishing fleet maintains a rotating year-round presence at sea.
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.