MYKOLAIVKA, Ukraine — With casualties mounting and Western support in question, war-weary Ukrainian soldiers fighting on the country’s eastern front lines are bracing for the coming year fighting a Russian occupier who shows no signs of quit.
In a small country house in the village of Mykolaivka, in Ukraine‘s eastern Donetsk region, three soldiers of the 17th Tank Brigade are huddled around a stove, enjoying a temporary respite from the intermittent Russian shelling outside. A steaming cup of coffee in hand, 31-year-old Andrii — the commanding officer of the unit — recounts that the day so far has been rather quiet, as the clouds overhead are hampering the work of Russian drones, a now ubiquitous threat all along Ukraine‘s sprawling front lines.
One of the men under Andrii’s command — an American volunteer from Atlanta, Georgia — bore witness to the deadly efficiency of Russian drones: “I was struck by a Lancet drone about a week ago, I’m lucky to still have my leg,” he says in a thick Southern drawl, gesturing towards his bandaged leg. The men haven’t been rotated away from the front lines for months, and while their motivation remains intact, they admit that they’re quite pessimistic as the year draws to a close.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if we faced a scenario like 2014 all over again,” says Andrii, switching to Ukrainian when his English fails him. “The lines might get frozen where they are, the Russians will rebuild their forces and then, they’ll attack again.”
Furrowing his brow, Andrii bemoans the faltering foreign support, and says he fears that Ukrainian society at large is already forgetting about the war — and the sacrifices endured by his fellow soldiers.
“Seeing the stories on Instagram from some of my friends partying in Kyiv, who claim they’re supporting the ‘economic front,’ is infuriating,” he acknowledges.
Following the meager returns on its much-touted summer counteroffensive, the Ukrainian army has increasingly found itself on the back foot all along the country’s sprawling front line. In recent weeks, Russian forces have managed to seize back the initiative as they step up their efforts to seize the entirety of Ukraine‘s eastern Donbas region.
In spite of staggering losses in both personnel and equipment, the Russian army has pressed on and claimed — admittedly, limited — territorial gains over the past couple of days.
Russia finished the outgoing year with multiple barrages of drone and missile attacks, hitting both civilian and infrastructure targets, including a New Year’s Day salvo of some 90 Shahed-type drones targeting Odessa and Lviv, most of which were intercepted by Ukraine‘s stressed air defense systems.
Ukraine responded Saturday with a major attack of its own on the Russian city of Belgorod, a strike that killed nearly two dozen local residents and infuriated Mr. Putin.
“We’re going to intensify the strikes. No crime against civilians will rest unpunished, that’s for certain,” the Russian leader said Monday during a visit to a military hospital, according to Russian press accounts.
“Of course, we can strike public squares and Kyiv, and any other city. I understand. I’m burning with rage myself,” Mr. Putin said.
Symbolic setback
Though limited in scope, the apparent capture by Russian forces of the town of Marinka bears symbolic significance: Russian-backed militias first captured the town in April 2014, and it had been sitting on the front line in the disputed Donbas region since its liberation in August of the same year by the Ukrainian army.
Yet, while the failure of the summer counteroffensive and the growing uncertainty surrounding the continuation of Western aid to the embattled country have dampened the mood in Kyiv, Ukraine has registered a number of strategic victories in the lead-up to the new year: the Ukrainian army struck and sunk a Russian ship docked in Crimea, demonstrating once again its ability to degrade Russian naval capabilities in the Black Sea.
A Russian media report Monday revealed that more than 70 Russian sailors had died in the attack, which appeared to set up ammunition stocks stored on the ship.
The brutality that has characterized Russia‘s invasion of its neighbor was once again on full display over the past couple of days. Drone footage published on Dec. 27 and geo-located near the town of Robotyne, in the region of Zaporizhzhya, depicted the execution of three unarmed Ukrainians by Russian soldiers, the latter later shooting an already dead Ukrainian serviceman again at close range. In the face of such relentless savagery, Ukrainian soldiers feel they have no choice but to fight to the end — with or without Western support.
“While some of the soldiers are tired, their desire to defend their country remains intact, one foreign instructor working with the Ukrainian forces tells the Washington Times. The instructor, who has had extensive combat experience and is based in Donbas, asked to remain anonymous. “They very much know what they are fighting for: their country, their family, their children.”
He admits however that, as casualties mount, the quality of new Ukrainian recruits has fallen sharply.
“The soldiers I’m tasked with training are older, some of them come from a background of hard labor,” he conceded. “They suffer from back problems, knee problems. Some of them are career alcoholics.”
With casualties mounting, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed in early December a decree boosting troop numbers by 15%, which would mean the recruitment of an additional 170,000 servicemen if the targets are met. Meanwhile, the text of a draft law posted on the website of the Ukrainian parliament on Christmas Day proposed lowering the age of those who can be mobilized for combat duty to 25 from 27.
Yet while Russia has put its economy on a war footing, stepping up its production of ammunition, Ukraine‘s allies have failed to meet their pledge to supply the embattled country with the shells it so desperately needs.
President Biden is still struggling to get a $64 billion Ukraine aid package through Congress as the new year opens. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned in November that the European Union would likely miss its target of supplying Ukraine with a million artillery shells and missiles by next March.
According to Estonian defense official Kusti Salm, the objective will likely be fulfilled at the earliest by mid-2024.
The growing war fatigue among Ukraine‘s western backers has not escaped Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines.
“If people in Europe or America think the Russians will stop at Ukraine, they’re very much mistaken,” says Andrii. “And it’s anyone’s guess where they’ll strike next. Moldova, the Baltic states, maybe Poland.”
Visible from the courtyard of Andrii‘s house, the devastated town of Chasiv Yar, a mere couple of miles away, sticks out like a sore, burnt-out thumb in the distance. There, in the basement of a bombed-out building in the center of the town, drone operators from the 17th Tank Brigade emphasized the need for more ammunition, equipment and vehicles going into the new year.
“We’re willing to fight, I don’t even want money or a salary,” says Yurii, who has been serving since the beginning of Russia‘s full-scale invasion. “But give us weapons, give us ammunition.”
The existential nature of the war in Ukraine was once again underlined by European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell in a recent interview.
“Maybe this is the moment in which we have to look at the danger coming from a great power which threatens our democracy, which threatens Europe itself, not only Ukraine,” said Mr. Borrell, warning that if Europe did not “change course” and mobilize all its capacities, Mr. Putin may very well triumph over Ukraine — and then set his sights elsewhere along Russia‘s tense borders with Europe and Central Asia.