SEOUL, South Korea — Are soldiers, sailors and airmen better at maintaining amicable nation-to-nation relations than diplomats, trade negotiators and politicians?
Per events in the Indo-Pacific at present, the answer may be “Yes.”
The U.S. and its allies are flexing multi-domain combat muscle in war games across the region with the amity that unites military pros. The wider backdrop, however, is stormy: trade and political spats between Washington and regional allies.
Japan has — to the surprise relief in some quarters — been the recipient of a trade deal that slashed threatened U.S. tariffs from 30% to 15%. Yet jitters persist over the perceived capriciousness of President Trump’s administration.
Concerns simmer on both sides of the Pacific that Washington is alienating allies with gloves-off — and embarrassingly public — comments from U.S. defense officials.
“Everyone is doing everything possible not to link issues of trade and tariffs to issues of security and U.S. alliances,” said Garren Mulloy, an international relations professor at Japan’s Daito Bunka University. “But there is a profound frustration, a sense of, ‘Why are you punishing us when you want us to take on more of the burden of defense in our region?’”
War games in full play
Democratic militaries in the region are conducting widespread drills designed to upgrade interoperability — the mind-boggling interface of different languages, communications systems, electronic suites, sensors, weapons and even military cultures — with each other and the U.S.
The 25th edition of the U.S. Air Force’s Resolute Force Pacific (REFORPAC 25), based on the U.S. overseas territory of Guam, represents an “unprecedented surge,” according to the U.S. Air Force.
More than 400 aircraft, and 12,000 personnel from both the U.S. and its regional allies, are taking part in the July 10 to Aug 8 exercises.
The exercise has never been done “on this scope and scale,” U.S. Col. Charles Dan Cooley told the Australian Broadcasting Corp.
REFORPAC overlaps with the biggest-ever edition of Talisman Sabre, underway on, over and in the waters off northern and eastern Australia from July 13 to Aug 4.
This year’s REFORPAC exercises engage 40,000 personnel from 19 nations, more than ever before, with drills expanding to Papua New Guinea.
Notable weapons test-fired Down Under include U.S. High Mobility Artillery Rocket System missile launchers. The U.S. Marines and U.S. Army are currently expanding units armed with HIMARS, Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System and Typhoon launchers, tasked with littoral defense.
The units and their systems bring area-denial and ship-killing capabilities to strategic maritime choke points inside the strategic First Island Chain.
For Japan, the leading U.S. regional ally and the guardian of northern maritime approaches to Taiwan, Talisman Sabre offered the opportunity to test-fire its own Type-12 surface-ship missiles from Australian shores.
Japan is also the recipient of a high-profile tariff deal — a deal that adds complexities to ongoing negotiations with another U.S. ally.
Low volume, high tension
“Korea has a rivalry with Japan. … If we get [higher] tariffs than Japan, this will make a big battle for us,” said Yang Uk, a security specialist at Seoul’s Asan Institute. “It will be an issue of national pride: ‘Are we not as good allies as Japan?’”
There had been hopes for a trade breakthrough this Friday, but Seoul was shaken on July 24 when U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cancelled a meeting with a high-profile Seoul delegation due to an unexplained “scheduling conflict.”
Meanwhile, despite a request delivered by South Korea’s national security adviser on June 29, Mr. Trump has not yet scheduled a summit with Korean President Lee Jae-myung, who took office in June.
A different concern is that the Lee administration may reignite for the long-delayed transfer of wartime operational control of its forces from the U.S. to its own command.
“U.S. presence in South Korea would be much reduced, and people are wondering if there would be a new, meaningful alliance after OPCON transfer,” Mr. Yang said. “All questions remain.”
He called Seoul’s commentariat, “very nervous.”
That may explain recent Korean-language tweets from Talisman Sabre by Gen. Xavier Brunson, who leads U.S. Forces Korea.
“The strength of the Korea-U.S. alliance is also evident in Australia,” he wrote on X on July 18 beside an image of a Korean artillery shell. “In the Talisman Sabre exercise, we stand together ready to deter aggression.”
The approach clicked with a U.S. lieutenant colonel retired in South Korea.
“It’s a classic example of getting along in spite of what else is going on,” said Steve Tharp. “Even during very big anti-U.S.demonstrations in 2002, we were getting along great in military circles — no issues at all.”
Meanwhile, reports from far-flung desert townships hosting U.S. Marines during Talisman Sabre indicate that Australians are happily inviting American forces to local pubs.
That cannot disguise capital-level discontent, given that Washington is planning tariffs on Canberra, which runs a trade deficit with the U.S.
Like Seoul’s Mr. Lee, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has not yet met Mr. Trump — though he did spend a week in China, summiting with senior officials including President Xi Jinping.
Trade is not the only issue.
U.S. defense officials’ unilateral review of the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal signed between the Biden administration, Canberra and London has irked Australia, which has invested billions of dollars and hefty political capital in the deal.
Reported U.S. demands that Canberra explain its plans for a war over Taiwan to Washington — which itself maintains a policy of “strategic ambiguity” over the scenario — has created further ill feeling.
“Australia has to understand that there is an alliance, and has to understand that with those submarines, they must contribute,” said David Arase, an expert on international politics at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.
However, he also critiqued Washington’s loose lips.
“You don’t want to do this in public,” Mr. Arase, an American, warned. “This should have been done through quiet diplomacy.”
In war games, nobody is denying the value of GIs.
“Americans bring so much to the party, it’s a plus for Australians, for Japanese for British,” said Mr. Mulloy. “If you get officers isolated from political and diplomatic officials, they will have full and frank conversations and exchange a great deal of value.”
Officers, however, don’t set policy.
“There are grave limitations in these relations,” fretted Mr. Yang. “Militaries don’t decide diplomacy: If a president says ‘No’, cooperation is ended.”
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.