House Republicans are headed into the next Congress with an even slimmer majority that will temporarily shrink to a zero-seat advantage in the early months of Donald Trump’s presidency, imperiling his ambitious agenda.
Republicans hoped the last remaining congressional race in the country would give them a much-needed cushion. Democrat Adam Gray’s victory over Rep. John Duarte in California on Tuesday whittled the House Republicans’ majority to 220 seats to Democrats’ 215, one of the smallest majorities in nearly a century.
That majority will temporarily shrink to 217 seats, thanks to lawmakers resigning to serve in President Trump’s Cabinet. This effectively gives Republicans no room for error during his first 100 days, which are viewed as crucial to implementing major parts of his agenda. One Republican defection on a bill would result in a 216-216 tie and a defeat of the legislation if all members are present and no Democrats vote with the Republicans.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, Louisiana Republican, shrugged off the zero-seat margin, at least for a couple of months. He said Republicans have developed an “expertise” in having little wiggle room.
“So yes, do the math; we have nothing to spare,” Mr. Johnson said. “But all of our members know that. We talked about that today, as we do constantly, because this is a team effort, that we’ve got to all row in the same direction.”
Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, whom Mr. Trump nominated but subsequently withdrew from contention to lead the Justice Department, has resigned from Congress and has no intention of returning for the next session despite winning reelection. Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida plans to leave the House on Jan. 3 to serve as Mr. Trump’s national security adviser.
A special election will be held on April 1 to fill their respective Florida seats, and they will likely be won by Republican candidates in districts that favor Republicans.
Rep. Elise Stefanik, New York Republican, has not announced when she will leave the House to serve as ambassador to the United Nations. The Washington Times contacted Ms. Stefanik’s office for comment on when she would resign from the lower chamber.
Their departures, coupled with possible absences or illness in the House, particularly among Republicans, could make or break significant legislation on the border, tax cuts, energy and defense that the incoming Trump administration plans to push through Congress.
Interparty squabbles among Republicans have centered primarily around government funding throughout the current session of Congress, pitting hard-liners in the House Freedom Caucus against leadership and more moderate Republicans. Those disagreements led to bills being derailed on the House floor.
Some Republicans shared Mr. Johnson’s sentiment and predicted smooth sailing during Mr. Trump’s first 100 days.
“I think that, quite frankly, you’ll see Congress, or at least Republicans, in a bit of a honeymoon phase,” said Rep. Andy Ogles, Tennessee Republican and member of the hard-line caucus. “The question is, is that three months or six months?”
Each member of the House could have the power of someone like retiring Sen. Joe Manchin III, West Virginia independent, who often leveraged his position to get a compromise with Democratic leadership in the Senate for their narrow majority.
Despite Republican claims of unity, the new dynamic could allow old divisions to resurface and stunt the House Republicans’ planned breakneck pace to pass a Trump-dominated agenda.
Freedom Caucus member Rep. Ralph Norman, South Carolina Republican, said he expects Republicans will agree on larger-ticket items in Mr. Trump’s agenda. Still, disagreements will come around again during spending battles.
“I think you will see that when it comes to starting cutting spending, everybody has got money coming to their district in some form or fashion,” he said. “It affects different groups, and so that’s where you’ll have some kickback. That’s where Trump will have to weigh in.”
A slim majority also could stall fledgling plans to repeal several laws that became staples of President Biden’s administration.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Louisiana Republican, told reporters that elements of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act could be axed in an expected reconciliation package.
“We’ve identified … many items that are in current law, some that were passed by reconciliation that we’re going to repeal, but no final decisions have been made on the full package,” Mr. Scalise said.
Other Republicans are concerned about finishing their current spending work. Rep. Max Miller, an Ohio Republican who worked in Mr. Trump’s first administration, said having such a tight majority during the first few months of the Trump administration would be “incredibly challenging.”
Mr. Miller said Congress could move more quickly if lawmakers pass another short-term funding patch by the Dec. 20 deadline, but nearly half a dozen lawmakers don’t want another stopgap bill.
“When I worked in the Trump administration in 2017, I remember when President Trump carried over all of President Obama’s appropriations, and we ate up three to four months of his first year of his first term, and we saw how chaotic that was at that point,” he said. “Unfortunately, this wouldn’t be any different.”
• Alex Miller can be reached at amiller@washingtontimes.com.