KYIV, Ukraine — It’s hard to disrupt a stalemated war that will pass the three-year mark later this month, but the shift in power in Washington has managed to do just that.
President Donald Trump’s first declarations on the war have drawn mixed reactions from officials here, though some Ukrainians still want to believe that the new president will turn out to be a more effective ally than former President Joe Biden. Meanwhile, while pro-war Russian bloggers are seething at what they say is the “contempt” shown by Mr. Trump for their cause.
Mr. Trump’s pre-election pledge to end the war in a day has come and gone, and retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, his designated envoy to resolving the conflict, has canceled a planned fact-finding trip to Kyiv and has yet to publicly announce a make-up date. Mr. Trump did threaten new sanctions and tariffs on Russia, but so far no new policies have been implemented.
Mr. Kellogg’s claim over the weekend that Ukraine was coming around to the idea that it will have to cede some territory brought a sharp denial from Kyiv. “Both sides will give a little bit,” the U.S. envoy told Fox News.
While the Ukraine war was a consuming interest of the Biden administration, Mr. Trump’s early foreign policy forays have focused elsewhere — on immigration detainee policy with Colombia, on tariffs on allies and adversaries alike, and even on U.S. territorial claims on Greenland and the Panama Canal.
Many Ukrainians noted the paradox: While the U.S. campaign and election — and its impact on continuing American support for Kyiv as Russian forces make slow but steady gains in the occupied south and east — were of all-consuming interest in Ukraine, Mr. Trump’s early days in office have managed to put this besieged and war-weary country on the policy back-burner.
“Ukrainians were very closely monitoring the campaign itself,” said Ihor Petrenko, a political scientist at Kyiv’s Taras Shevchenko National University. “The reactions to the result were split about 50-50. On one hand, some were afraid of what Trump’s victory could mean for Ukraine.”
But, he noted, there was also mounting frustration with the cautious Biden administration, whose slow-rolling of advanced military aid was a constant source of frustration for the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Mr. Petrenko noted.
“In spite of the gratitude repeatedly expressed by Ukraine’s government and citizens alike for the military and humanitarian aid provided by Washington, many felt that the Biden administration was slow to help, deathly afraid of any escalation with Moscow and hamstringing Kyiv’s ability to defend itself by forbidding until very recently the use of American-made weapons on Russian territory.”
In a piece published recently on the Ukrainian website “Glavkom,” Mr. Petrenko had claimed that “a new era for the US and the world” was about to begin, believing that the new U.S. president had “already demonstrated his willingness to cooperate, emphasizing the possibility of a personal meeting with the Ukrainian leader after the inauguration.”
Speaking with The Washington Times, Mr. Petrenko explained that Mr. Trump’s election was a cause both for hope and concern in Ukraine.
“Trump’s statements on the campaign trail have done little to reassure Ukrainians, and everyone remembered his previous meetings with Putin and his fondness for the Russian dictator,” he noted. “However, part of the Ukrainian public also remembered that Trump was the one who gave us the Javelin [anti-tank missiles], not Obama.”
As Mr. Trump’s key defense and national security nominations — notably new Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth — settle into their posts, U.S. military aid to Ukraine remains an outstanding question, with many in the president’s inner circle and some of his Cabinet picks having in the past voiced their opposition to continued support to Kyiv.
Humanitarian aid has already been affected by the sudden and unexpected freeze on all foreign assistance decreed by Mr. Trump on his first days back in office, as he called for a review to ensure the funds were spent in accordance with his “America First” foreign policy.
Hints at a policy
And amid the swirl of other foreign policy controversies, Mr. Trump has nonetheless given some hints since taking office of his approach to the Ukraine war.
Mr. Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social on Jan. 22 that while he did not wish to “harm Russia,” it was time for Russian President Vladimir Putin to “settle now and stop this ridiculous war,” arguing it was in the Kremlin’s own interest to halt the bloody and economically ruinous war.
“All of that being said, I’m going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR,” Mr. Trump wrote.
While rather mild by Mr. Trump’s online standards, and even heaping praise on the Russian people for their sacrifice in WWII, the message has been met with mockery and anger by pro-war Russian bloggers and Telegram channels. One of them derided the US president as an “old orange clown” and complained that Mr. Trump’s use of the words “must” and “immediately” when addressing the Russian leadership were “beyond the boundaries of diplomacy and even beyond the boundaries of anything reasonable.”
But the unexpectedly strong tone of the post triggered somewhat of a sigh of relief among Ukrainians.
“Trump’s recent statements have been encouraging, Ukrainians feel that they are getting positive feedback,” Mr. Petrenko observed. “And the fact that the administration has signaled that they will try to conduct consultations with Kyiv, with other partners, and reading the articles that Keith Kellogg wrote and his proposals, it has had a calming effect for Kyiv.”
For its part, the Kremlin seems to have chosen the high road regarding Mr. Trump’s goading comments. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters late last month that Mr. Putin was “ready” to talk directly with the new U.S. president — unlike the diplomatic deep freeze that prevailed for most of Mr. Biden’s tenure.
“We are waiting for signals. Everyone is ready,” said Mr. Peskov of Moscow’s readiness to “talk” with the new US president. “It’s hard to read the tea leaves here,” he added, seemingly nudging Washington into reaching out to Moscow.
Unlike some of the most hawkish Russian commentators, Mr. Putin also struck a decidedly conciliatory tone during a January 24 address on state TV, echoing some of the new U.S. president’s favorite talking points when he remarked that, “if [Mr. Trump’s] victory hadn’t been stolen in 2020, then maybe there would not have been the crisis in Ukraine that emerged in 2022.”
Mr. Trump for now appears content to keep his options open, while hinting more may be underway behind the scenes.
He told reporters on Sunday that discussions involving Ukraine and Russia are making progress, while providing almost no details.
“We have meetings and talks scheduled with various parties, including Ukraine and Russia. And I think those discussions are actually going pretty well,” Mr. Trump said.
It remains to be seen whether attempts to cajole the notoriously unpredictable U.S. president to favor one side or the other will work, but it certainly has not gone unnoticed in Kyiv. Andrii Yermak, a top adviser to Mr. Zelenskyy, struck back on Telegram at what he said was an attempt to negotiate Ukraine’s future without involving either Ukraine or Europe.
“This is not going to happen. Putin needs to come back to reality himself, or he will be brought back,” wrote Mr. Yermak on his Telegram channel. “This is not how it works in the modern world.”
Seemingly well aware of Russia’s vulnerable points, Mr. Trump has said he would “ask Saudi Arabia and the OPEC countries to lower the cost of oil” during an online address to an audience of top business leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
“I’m frankly surprised they didn’t do it before the election. Not doing it wasn’t exactly a show of love,” added Mr. Trump.
If implemented, such a measure — with the added pressure of continued sanctions — would strike a major blow to the Russian economy, still heavily reliant on the sale of oil and gas to sustain itself and the country’s war effort in Ukraine. It would also happen at a time when an emboldened Kyiv has been increasing the frequency of its drone strikes against its neighbor’s oil and gas extraction, refinement and transport infrastructure.
“Trump came and said that we will pay attention to the energy, and if he manages to do what he promised, it will definitely accelerate the end of the war,” concludes Mr. Petrenko. “And this is exactly what Ukraine wants, and what President Zelenskyy has been talking about: realistic and effective security guarantees that create a situation in which any further or new aggression against Ukraine will have a devastating effect on the Russian Federation.”