March began with a win for Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary in the District of Columbia, but the month is all but guaranteed to end with former President Donald Trump clinching the nomination and eliminating her from the race.
Mr. Trump is set to scoop up hundreds of delegates on Tuesday when 15 states strongly favoring the former president vote in Republican primaries. His expected big win will come one day after the Supreme Court voted unanimously that states cannot strip Mr. Trump from their ballots over claims he engaged in an insurrection.
He could end the day less than 200 delegates away from securing his third Republican nomination for president if predictions hold up and he wins the vast majority of the 884 delegates up for grabs in the Super Tuesday contests.
But he won’t win a spot on the November ballot this week, which means Ms. Haley could battle on until at least March 19, when contests in a handful of additional states will likely give Mr. Trump the primary victory.
For now, she has slowed Mr. Trump’s inevitable march to the nomination with her win in the D.C. primary, where she picked up 19 delegates.
Her campaign team boasted her victory on Sunday shows she has momentum ahead of Super Tuesday and beyond and is aggressively reaching out to supporters with fundraising requests.
SEE ALSO: Trump brushes off D.C. primary loss to Haley, says he ‘stayed away’ on purpose
Despite her long odds, Ms. Haley insists she’s not quitting and has set up a “leadership team” of state and local Republican leaders in Georgia, which holds a primary with 59 delegates up for grabs on March 12.
On Sunday, she disavowed an earlier RNC pledge to support Mr. Trump in the likely event he becomes the nominee.
“I think I’ll make what decision I want to make, but that’s not something I’m thinking about,” she said on “Meet the Press” on NBC. “If you talk about an endorsement, you’re talking about a loss. I don’t think like that.”
Her decision to remain in the race has sparked speculation that she is considering a third-party run, which she has dismissed.
The Republican Party nomination will quickly and dramatically fall further out of reach for Ms. Haley in the cascade of contests ahead.
Few see her win in the heavily Democratic District of Columbia, which turned out only about 2,000 Republican voters, as a sign she’s about to close in on the former president.
SEE ALSO: Nikki Haley dismisses third-party run rumors ahead of Super Tuesday primaries
Most of the states on Super Tuesday will hold open primaries, which allow Democrats and independents to vote. Ms. Haley, analysts say, could pick up votes in Tennessee, Minnesota, North Carolina and other states where delegates are awarded proportionally and the threshold is lower to qualify for winning delegates.
She is not expected to win any state contests outright, which will keep her tally low and pave the way for Mr. Trump’s count to grow significantly.
“She can win some delegates, but at some point, she is going to have to start winning contests, and that doesn’t seem likely,” said Josh Putnam, founder of FHQ Strategies, a nonpartisan website specializing in primary delegate rules and presidential campaigns and elections.
As for Mr. Trump, his victory lap will not happen quite as quickly as his aides predicted in February when they issued a memo declaring “the end is near” for Ms. Haley.
The Republican primary winner must secure 1,215 delegates, and even If Mr. Trump wins 90% of the delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday, it would leave him with roughly 1,040 delegates.
Republican primaries in Georgia, Mississippi and Washington and a caucus in Hawaii come next on March 12, but they are unlikely to push Mr. Trump into the winner’s circle as advisers had boasted they could.
If Mr. Trump wins every delegate on March 12, he would end up a dozen or so delegates short of victory.
Instead, Mr. Trump is most likely to clinch the nomination on March 19, when five states hold primaries that will award 350 delegates combined, and like every other contest, Mr. Trump is set to dominate.
That has not deterred Ms. Haley, who campaigned Monday in Texas, one of the biggest Super Tuesday contests where 161 delegates are at stake.
A University of Texas poll of 522 likely voters taken in late February showed Mr. Trump leading Ms. Haley by 58 points in the Lone Star State.
At a rally in Spring, Texas, Ms. Haley promoted her second-place finish in New Hampshire, where she earned 43% of the vote. She attacked Mr. Trump’s personality, legal troubles and his spending record while president. She pledged to cut spending and shrink the government, and she suggested she wouldn’t be getting out of the race.
“We don’t anoint kings in America. We have elections,” Ms. Haley said. “And Texans deserve the right to vote.”
She said Mr. Trump has hindered Republicans from winning in the last three elections because voters have rejected those he endorsed. It’s a pattern she is warning will repeat in November. She dismissed Mr. Trump’s general election lead over Mr. Biden in many polls as too close for comfort.
“How much losing do we have to do before we realize Donald Trump is the problem?” Ms. Haley said at the Texas rally.
It’s a question many have asked Ms. Haley about her campaign.
In a Fox News interview, Ms. Haley defended remaining in the race. She cited “internal numbers” that she declined to share but said were positive for her campaign.
“Our goal is just to be competitive,” she said.
Mr. Trump’s team predicted a “crushing” defeat for Ms. Haley on Tuesday and ridiculed her D.C. win, calling it a victory for the “swamp.”
Mr. Trump, on social media, promoted his wins over the weekend in Missouri, Idaho and Michigan, where he won 134 delegates and Ms. Haley won four.
“The really big numbers will come on Super Tuesday,” he said.
• Susan Ferrechio can be reached at sferrechio@washingtontimes.com.