The growing threat of a Chinese military attack makes Taiwan one of the most dangerous global flashpoints now and for years to come, according to a new think tank report.
Multiple scenarios outlined in the report reveal new details of the military and non-military methods Beijing is preparing to use to coerce the self-ruled island democracy into capitulating.
“Taiwan’s strategic significance and the far-ranging damage from its coercive annexation by China would be a devastating loss from which the United States could neither fully retreat nor readily recover,” the report said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping will soon reach the apex of his power and thus will be free to pursue his announced goal of taking over the island located 100 miles off the southern Chinese coast, the report states. The mounting danger requires stronger American leadership to deter attacks that would produce potentially catastrophic results, including the loss of access to Taiwan’s world-class advanced computer chip manufacturing sector, the report said.
“Given its irreplaceable importance for American national interests, safeguarding Taiwan should be urgently and relentlessly prioritized in U.S. defense and foreign policy efforts,” the report states.
The 168-page report, “Annexation of Taiwan: A Defeat From Which the US and Its Allies Could Not Retreat,” was written by Gabriel Collins and Andrew Erickson. Mr. Collins is a former Pentagon China analyst and Mr. Erickson is a professor of strategy at the Naval War College. The report was produced by Rice University’s Baker Institute Public Policy and released earlier this month.
The authors argue that Taiwan represents the same kind of flashpoint as West Berlin, part of the divided German capital during the Cold War that epitomized the ideological confrontation between the communist Soviet bloc and the democratic West.
In addition to planning and exercising for a full-scale military assault, China’s military planners also are weighing a maritime blockade of Taiwan, or engaging in measures short of outright warfare to seize control of Taiwan’s world-level microelectronics industry without damage, the report says.
The future of Taiwan is at risk and the danger of Chinese control is growing.
“Coercive annexation of Taiwan by China is among the most consequential potential security contingencies the United States faces against a formidable adversary,” the report says. “The situation could scarcely be more urgent.”
The report includes the warning announced by former Indo-Pacific commander Adm. John Aquilino in March. Adm. Aquilino told Congress all signs point to the Chinese military meeting a directive from Mr. Xi to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. The admiral stated that recent actions by the People’s Liberation Army “indicate their ability to meet Xi’s preferred timeline to unify Taiwan with mainland China by force if directed.”
Far-reaching consequences
A Chinese takeover of Taiwan using force or coercion could have consequences that would be felt far beyond the region.
First, the United States would be faced with a severe shortage of semiconductors needed to fuel its technology-driven economy. The loss of access to Taiwan also would allow China to complicate American access to other major trading partners and markets in Asia.
Regarding regional alliances with Japan, the Philippines and South Korea, U.S. credibility could “disintegrate” as a result of a Chinese takeover.
The loss of Taiwan also would likely spur regional states like Japan and South Korea to build nuclear weapons, “resulting in nuclear proliferation on a grand scale,” the report said.
The report republishes an Indo-Pacific Command briefing slide explaining why Taiwan is important. The slide states that China’s assimilation of Taiwan, with or without a fight, would significantly shift the global balance of power in Beijing’s favor. Among the gains for China, according to the briefing, would be an ideological win for communism over democracy, new military and strategic advantages for China’s power projection, and domination of global trade chokepoints and sea lanes.
In the past three years, Chinese military drills have been carried out with a focus on practicing for a Taiwan invasion, including the use in one drill of seven militarized roll-on, roll-off car ferries that took part in amphibious assault training, the report said.
Recent military activities around Taiwan by Chinese forces, such as deploying hundreds of warplanes and scores of warships, are designed to support “non-military tools.”
Those include economic, diplomatic, cultural, informational, law enforcement, organized crime, “gray zone” warfare and technological measures.
“A PRC endeavor to coercively assume control of Taiwan with the least possible escalation is a substantially higher probability than a large D-Day-style invasion, at least as an initial attempt,” the report said, using the acronym for the People’s Republic of China.
The report argues that the danger losing Taiwan will peak in the current decade.
“There is no political-historical prize more tempting to Xi than Taiwan, and no greater target of concerted preparations to generate actionable options for coercion,” the report said. “As a result, U.S. and allied policymakers have now fully entered a decade of maximum danger, and the strategic stakes are commensurately high.”
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in 2022 that the United States is facing a “decisive decade,” pitting the U.S. and its alles against those “bent on imperial aggression.”
Deterring China from a takeover of Taiwan will be difficult since the Chinese Communist Party has tied its legitimacy to controlling Taiwan under a policy of national rejuvenation.
As a result, Mr. Xi is unlikely to “self-deter” from attack on the island, the report said.
Noting the parallels between Taiwan and Berlin, the report said the island is the central flashpoint in a new Cold War with China: “It is an outpost of liberty, prosperity and democracy living in the shadow of an authoritarian superpower and demonstrating daily that Chinese heritage is no barrier to pluralistic diversity, democracy, rule of law or freedom,” the report said.
“It is not too late to hold the line where it matters most, but time is indeed running out.”
Mr. Erickson, co-author of the report, said China has already achieved the most dramatic military buildup since World War II.
“The more you know about Xi’s relentless ramp-up, the more concerning it is,” he said. “The risk window is here and now. Some of America’s most vital interests hang in the balance.
• Bill Gertz can be reached at bgertz@washingtontimes.com.