Republican presidential hopefuls have been struggling to explain their support for Ukraine to a GOP electorate decidedly skeptical of America’s interests in the war with Russia.
The answer they’re settling on is that the war in Europe is just as much about China.
“When the Ukrainian military drives Russia off their soil and reclaims their sovereignty I think we’ll send a deafening message to China and other countries that might be considering military aggression,” former Vice President Mike Pence declared during a surprise visit to Ukraine this month.
Nikki Haley, a former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., struck a similar note in a speech to the American Enterprise Institute. She argued that China — which she identified as the major threat to the U.S. — is closely watching Europe to see how the world responds to an aggressor nation’s intervention.
Stopping Russia, she said, will pay dividends as the U.S. tries to constrain Chinese ambitions toward Taiwan and the South China Sea.
“If we do that, China will see our resolve and rethink its plans for Taiwan,” Ms. Haley said. “It will see the true cost of war before it launches one.”
“It will realize that America will not roll over – that we will do what is necessary to defend our interests and defeat our enemies,” she said.
The Russian conflict has proved divisive for the GOP.
On one side, a host of high-profile Republicans, particularly inside the foreign policy establishment, insist America must provide whatever assistance Ukraine needs to prevail.
On the other side, a loud chorus of isolationist voices led by former President Donald Trump warns that the U.S. is meddling in a regional conflict where it has limited strategic interests, and insists the money would be better spent at home.
That sentiment was laid bare during negotiations over the annual Pentagon policy bill after Trump-inspired Republicans tried but failed to cut funding for Ukraine and roll back the nation’s involvement there. The measures to bar or restrict funding for Ukraine were defeated in bipartisan landslides in the GOP-run House.
The GOP split on Ukraine is reflected in the polls. A recent Gallup survey found half of Republicans have concluded the U.S. is doing too much to support Ukraine and prefer ending the conflict quickly —even if that means Russia keeps captured territory.
Roughly half of Republican voters take the opposite view and support Ukraine reclaiming its territory even if it prolongs the war.
Overall, a 62% majority of Americans want to support the Ukraine war effort.
For Republican presidential contenders who want to back Ukraine, tying Russia to China is a way to tip the party’s voters in favor of the war effort. It also gives Republican candidates an avenue to ding Mr. Trump, who has been staunchly noncommittal about backing Ukraine.
“There is more conservative support for Ukraine than commonly believed,” said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at AEI who specializes in U.S.-China relations.
He also said there is room to attack Mr. Trump on China “because the reality is that he was quite deferential to Beijing in several instances.”
Mr. Cooper said the former president didn’t follow up when China broke the terms of a trade deal, expressed support for President Xi Jin Ping’s crackdown in Hong Kong and “questioned U.S. support for Taiwan in several publicly reported cases.”
“I think that will provide an opening for others to criticize his record on China,” Mr. Cooper said.
That’s encouraging for 2024 presidential hopefuls who have been struggling to find issues to drive a wedge between Mr. Trump and his dedicated base of support.
Republicans are already more skeptical of China than Democrats, according to a recent Pew Research Center poll.
And that’s particularly true among hardline conservatives.
“Nearly nine-in-ten conservative Republicans say China does not contribute much or at all to global peace and stability relative to around eight-in-ten moderate and liberal Republicans,” Pew found.
Still, New Hampshire GOP Chair Chris Ager, who remains neutral in the race, said the message has yet to break through.
“Most voters I’ve interacted with have not made the correlation between Ukraine and China,” he said. “Kitchen table issues like inflation, taxes, education, the border and crime top the list of what’s on people’s minds.”
Ms. Haley, in her AEI speech, blamed both President Biden and Mr. Trump for doing “too little” to confront the China threat.
She said Mr. Trump showed “moral weakness” in his “zeal to befriend” Mr. Xi by congratulating the Communist Party on its 70th anniversary of conquering China.
“That sent the wrong message to the world. Chinese Communism must be condemned, never congratulated,” she said.
In a recent interview on Fox News, Mr. Trump was reluctant to mix it up over Russia or China.
“If I tell you an answer it’s going to hurt me in negotiations, on the assumption that I win,” he said, though he added he has a “very good relationship” with China’s president.
He said that China didn’t invade Taiwan during his term in office and took a less aggressive rhetorical approach to the island it claims as its rightful territory.
Mr. Trump also claimed he could strike a deal to settle the Ukraine-Russia conflict within 24 hours, and claimed that when he was in office he deterred President Vladimir Putin from aggression in Ukraine.
Mr. Pence, his vice president at the time, says his former boss did show a striking amount of “clarity” on policy toward China.
But Mr. Pence has mocked Mr. Trump’s pledge to wind down the war in a day, saying the only way that would happen is if Putin gets everything he wants.
Mr. Pence said Mr. Trump has been short-sighted in terms of Ukraine, and therefore China.
“China may not be an evil empire, but under President Xi, it certainly aspires to become one,” Mr. Pence said earlier this year. “President Xi’s vision for the world is one in which freedom is constrained, but Beijing’s power is not.”
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.