SEOUL, South Korea — Kim Jong-un’s global prestige received a massive boost from his prominent profile in Beijing on Wednesday, prompting experts to say North Korea’s widely derided leader is enjoying new relevance.
Twenty-six international leaders, from nations including Belarus, Cuba, Indonesia, Iran and Pakistan, joined Chinese President Xi Jinping to commemorate the 80th anniversary of World War II. While overlooking a massed military parade and on walkabouts, Mr. Xi chose two leaders to flank him.
One — predictably — was Russian President Vladimir Putin. The other — to some surprise — was Mr. Kim.
Mr. Kim did not simply enjoy prominent positioning: He undertook separate, hours-long bilateral discussions with both Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi.
Mr. Xi said China and North Korea “should strengthen strategic coordination in international and regional affairs to safeguard common interests.” Mr. Kim said North Korea would “invariably support” China.
Mr. Putin praised the skill and courage of North Korean troops who fought alongside Russian forces in Kursk. Mr. Kim told Mr. Putin that Russia ties had “significantly strengthened.”
Beyond these amicable generalities, few details have leaked out. However, Pyongyang propagandists could hardly have prayed for better optics.
Mr. Kim’s own propaganda machines churn out footage of his activities: riding a white charger through wintry mountainscapes; placing newly designed backpacks on the shoulders of awe-struck school children; waddling alongside massive ballistic missiles and their launchers.
All this imagery is domestic. On the international stage, he has only conducted a handful of bilateral meetings — with U.S. President Trump, with Mr. Xi and with then-South Korean President Moon Jae-in. Never before has he been offered such a high-prestige, multi-lateral photo opp.
“We have seen signs that China-North Korea relations are getting better: Trade numbers are up, they are being more complimentary about each other in their presses, and China’s ambassador has been busy in North Korea,” said Peter Ward, a North Korea researcher at Seoul’s specialist Sejong Institute. “But to see Kim next to Xi and Putin was a bit of a surprise.”
“I don’t know if North Korea will have better days in the future, but this could be a ‘golden age,’” said Kim Jeong-ro, vice president of Seoul-based NGO the Council for Diplomacy on Korean Reunification. “Not only inviting Kim to the parade, but placing him next to Putin, looks like [China and Russia] are recognizing North Korea as a nuclear state.”
Mr. Kim has been portrayed as a bizarre, even comical, figure in the West. Unlike other East Asian export powerhouses, his sanctioned nation lacks trade, investment and tourism potential.
But bolstered by a 1.2-million-strong army and armed with nuclear weapons, he is suddenly becoming a useful chum.
For Mr. Putin, deeply engaged in war with Ukraine, Mr. Kim’s arsenal of shells and missiles has made him a valuable military supplier.
And Pyongyang’s deployment of thousands of highly motivated shock troops to Mr. Putin’s war has made him a valuable ally – the only ally to fight alongside the Kremlin’s forces.
For Mr. Xi, Mr. Kim’s value is more nuanced.
China intervened in the Korean War in 1950 to maintain a buffer state against U.S.-allied South Korea. China and North Korea were like “lips and teeth,” Communist Party Chairman Mao Zedong famously said: “Without lips, the teeth get cold.”
There is no sign that democratic armies are about to strike into and through North Korea today. But one supposed strategy of the Donald Trump administration makes it imperative to keep Mr. Kim onside.
“Many of the people around Trump are interested in isolating China and making good relations with all the states that border China,” said Mr. Ward. “If they can make a deal with Kim that pushes him away from China, that would be problematic for Xi.”
Moreover, Mr. Trump has made clear his interest in restarting negotiations with Mr. Kim.
“It looks like the North Koreans could sit down and talk to Trump, and if that happens, Xi may want to have a chat with Kim first,” Mr. Ward said.
Another issue for Mr. Xi to consider is Mr. Kim’s knuckle. He possesses nuclear arms and troops with proven deployability, combat capabilities and casualty tolerances.
“As a balancing weight between the U.S., South Korea and Japan, he is on the side of China and Russia,” said Chun In-bum, a retired South Korean general. “By placing him on their side of the scale, it gives them an extra edge.”
“If Xi wants to build coalition against the U.S., a “Coalition of their own willing,” it would be really nice to have Putin and Kim onside,” added Mr. Kim of CFDOKR. “I guess Xi aimed at promoting China’s status in the anti-American camp.”
One question Mr. Xi must consider is China’s reputation. Unlike sanction-struck North Korea and Russia, China is deeply engaged in the international economies.
Zhu Feng, the dean of Nanjing University’s School of International Relations, warned Associated Press that “ganging up” with highly toxic North Korea would damage China’s image.
“It should not be over-interpreted that China-North Korea-Russia relations would see reinforcement,” he said.
Others differ.
Russia is supplying North Korea with food, military technologies and possibly fuel. In return for Mr. Kim’s ongoing loyalty, China, North Korea’s customary supplier of food, fuel, medicine and consumer goods, could expand aid and trade.
“China does not need to break sanctions: They can give North Koreans free stuff which is difficult to track, as they can put sanctioned items into trains and trucks,” said Mr. Ward, referencing multiple road and rail crossing points between China and North Korea. “Chinese Customs data is a good source of information on the North Korean economy but it probably does not tell the full story of trade, not by a long shot.”
In a nascent trilateral partnership, Japan, South Korea and the U.S. have been conducting joint naval, aerial and missile defense drills since 2022.
A competing trilateral partnership may emerge, with China and Russia – already conducting joint regional exercises – joined by North Korea.
“At this point, North Korea is depending on China for its economic markets, and on Russia as a military ally,” said Mr. Kim. “Now that North Korea and Russia are more extensively interlinked in the military area with arms and technologies, it may be possible that North Korea will take part in military drills between Russia and China.”
North Korea lacks the in-flight refueling vehicles to conduct long-range aerial exercises. However, a brace of new destroyers, believed to incorporate Russian technologies, potentially upgrade its maritime capabilities.
Meanwhile, the Global North, which has cut North Korea off from almost all economic ties, lacks influence over it.
“I guess the only leverage is we have is lifting sanctions,” said Mr. Chun. “That’s about it.”
He suggested, however, one upside. North Korea’s rising importance in the eyes of China and Russia could be mirrored by a recognition of South Korea’s importance by its democratic partners.
“I think that the U.S. and Japan should realize that South Korea has become more important,” he said. “Japan and the U.S. cannot bully us around, they have to woo and court the South Korean public.”
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.