The emergence of a second conflict outside the Asia-Pacific region is fueling new concerns China will exploit the distraction of the West to launch an anticipated military operation against Taiwan, according to two congressional leaders and security analysts.
Tensions remain high across the Taiwan Strait where China has vowed to take over the democratic-ruled island in the coming years.
Several members of Congress had already voiced worries that U.S. arms shipments to Ukraine are depleting weapons stockpiles needed to deter China from a Taiwan attack, an attack that U.S. military commanders say China could be ready to undertake in as little as four years.
Now, a second conflict has erupted, this time in the Middle East, that will require additional U.S. weapons, assets and military aid to a key U.S. ally, as Israeli forces are set for a ground assault against Hamas in Gaza.
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael T. McCaul said bolstering Taiwan’s defenses with U.S. weapons is a critical element of deterring China in the multisided great power competition.
“As [Chinese President Xi Jinping] readies his military for a potential invasion of Taiwan, getting the people of Taiwan the weapons they need — and have paid for — is critical to peace and deterrence,” Mr. McCaul said in a statement.
Congress has been pressing the Biden administration to speed up weapons shipments to Taiwan, including some $20 billion in backlogged arms purchases.
Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said Monday that the Army will seek additional funding from Congress to support Pentagon munitions production and arms acquisitions needed for both Israel and Ukraine, with many House Republican conservatives balking at yet another round of aid to Kyiv.
Rep. Mike Gallagher, chairman of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, said the U.S. government adopted “naive assumptions” during the early stages of the Ukraine crisis such as believing Russia would not invade and attempting to deter Moscow solely with soft power. Iran is now an additional adversary distracting U.S. attention in the Middle East, he said.
All that, he said, argues for a strong commitment of aid and resources to Taipei in the face of growing Chinese aggression.
“We risk repeating the same mistake when it comes to the Indo-Pacific if we don’t surge hard power west of the international date line,” Mr. Gallagher, Wisconsin Republican, said.
A broader picture also reveals an axis of authoritarian powers arrayed against the United States, he said, with China the dominant player, Russian President Vladimir Putin a junior partner, and increasingly the Iranian regime as part of the adversarial alliance.
“And the goal is simple: to destroy global American leadership, and sever our alliances and partnerships,” Mr. Gallagher said.
Mr. McCaul, Texas Republican, said China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are acting in concert in seeking to redraw sovereign borders in the global strategic competition.
“You cannot bifurcate these world powers – along with Iran-backed terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah – in [their] geopolitical fight against freedom and democracy,” he said.
The Pentagon is rapidly boosting its support for the Israeli military by sending air defenses, munitions and other military goods to Israel, a senior defense official told reporters.
Warships of the aircraft carrier strike group led by the USS Gerald R. Ford arrived in the eastern Mediterranean on Tuesday to be ready in case Iran intervenes directly in the conflict. The forces include the carrier’s eight squadrons of attack and support aircraft, a guided missile cruiser, and four guided missile destroyers.
The forces and arms are meant as “a deterrent signal to Iran,” the official said.
Chinese military precedent
There is a precedent for China using its military during a crisis that distracted the rest of the world.
On Oct. 20, 1962, Chinese military forces escalated an ongoing clash with India by launching an attack across a disputed border against Indian forces.
The attack came days after the beginning of the Cuban Missile Crisis when the United States and Soviet Union engaged in one of the most dangerous nuclear showdowns in the Cold War.
Pentagon and Indo-Pacific command spokesman did not respond to a request for comment on concerns about a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
Security experts say U.S. military support for both Ukraine and Israel will complicate efforts to deter a future Chinese attack on Taiwan.
Retired Navy Capt. Jim Fanell, a former Pacific Fleet intelligence director and specialist on China’s military, said the increased need for weapons following the Hamas attack, combined with two years of demands placed on the U.S. armament supply chain from the war on Ukraine, are being watched by Beijing.
“This is data the Chinese Communist Party will be processing in their system of comprehensive national power,” Capt. Fanell said. “Given America, the ‘arsenal of democracy,’ has not kept pace with these demands will likely be interpreted by CCP analysts as another unambiguous factor of why an invasion of Taiwan will succeed,” he said.
Miles Yu, a former State Department policymaker on China, said the Biden administration should not be distracted from the strategic threat posed by China.
Mr. Yu, now director of the Hudson Institute’s China Center, cited the Cuban crisis precedent and noted that the famed Berlin airlift of 1948-1949 also diminished a U.S. focus as Mao Zedong’s forces were coming to power in China‘s civil war. The airlift, he said, was a “severe strategic distraction.”
“Now with the Taiwan crisis, the Chinese Communist Party is the most important factor. So, we have to really focus on the most important threat and do not get distracted by other challenges in Europe, in the Middle East, and elsewhere,” Mr. Yu said.
Grant Newsham, a retired Marine Corps colonel involved in intelligence work with extensive experience in Asia, said China must like what it sees from the Israel-Gaza conflict.
U.S. support for the Ukraine war is a drain on U.S. military resources. Now a conflict involving Israel and Hamas, and perhaps Hezbollah and Iran, will further strain weapons and focus, he said.
“This drains off U.S. military resources and attention big-time,” said Mr. Newsham, author of the book “When China Attacks.”
The new Middle East conflict will complicate efforts by the Pentagon to bolster U.S. forces in the Asia-Pacific region despite U.S. military commanders asking the Pentagon to move faster in strengthening the force posture there, he said.
Mr. Newsham said the Biden administration may not be capable of focusing on the potential for a Taiwan attack because of the combined policy focus on Ukraine and Israel.
Also, political support among Americans for Israel is greater than backing for Taiwan, and China’s leaders may calculate that an attack on Taiwan will not garner similar support from the United States.
“China might fairly think, ‘If you’ll fall over yourself to placate the Iranians after what they’ve done to you and your interests for decades, well, the sky’s the limit in what you’ll do for us after we take Taiwan,’” Mr. Newsham said.
• Bill Gertz can be reached at bgertz@washingtontimes.com.