The legislative logjam has finally been broken in Washington, but how soon that will change the equation on the battlefields of Ukraine is another question.
The Pentagon on Tuesday said it could open up the weapons pipeline to Ukraine “within days” the moment the Senate and President Biden give final approval for $61 billion in military assistance that advanced as the result of a bipartisan coalition cobbled together in the House of Representatives by GOP Speaker Mike Johnson.
After the House approved the package on a bipartisan vote last week, the Senate was working into the night to pass a package of security aid bills for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan — a package President Biden first proposed some six months ago.
Ukraine has been pleading for the package for months, as it faced weapons shortages and sustained Russian advances in its southern and eastern region in recent months. Some question whether U.S. and Western aid will reach Kyiv in time to stanch more territorial losses this summer.
The Defense Department keeps its cards close to the chest about what items could be in the first tranche of weapons sent to Ukraine. But Kyiv has regularly pleaded for additional air defense and artillery ammunition as it battles Russian forces that have advanced on several fronts in recent weeks.
“If past is prologue, once President Biden signs the legislation into law, presidential drawdown authority can be used to deliver some weapons and munitions within days,” said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.
“Some of the capabilities are already in Europe,” Mr. Bowman told The Washington Times on Tuesday.
The U.S. has storehouses of military equipment in Europe established during the Cold War to supply NATO military units in the event of conflict with the Soviet Union. The Pentagon has become more skilled at acting as Ukraine’s supply wagon after more than two years of conflict in the region.
“We have a very robust logistics network that enables us to move material very quickly, as we’ve done in the past. We can move within days,” said Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman. “We understand the importance and the urgency and are doing everything we can.”
Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy told NBC News that Ukrainian soldiers are continuing to train for the next round of battles with the Russian troops.
“But we’re waiting for the weapons systems. We want to have the brigades fully equipped,” Mr. Zelenskyy said Saturday. “Some of them are exhausted and we need to replace them.”
Mr. Zelenskyy said he was concerned that some of the weapons promised by the US and NATO allies won’t arrive in Ukraine with enough time to make a difference. He compared it to the long wait after the White House eventually agreed to provide Ukraine with American F-16 fighter jets.
“The decision to supply F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine happened a year ago,” President Zelenskyy said. “A year has passed and we still don’t have the jets in Ukraine.”
U.S. supporters of Ukraine have similarly lamented the long delay in securing congressional approval for the military aid.
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said that “dithering and hesitation” have already provided a boost to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Make no mistake: Delay in providing Ukraine the weapons to defend itself has strained the prospects of defeating Russian aggression,” he said on the Senate floor.
First shipments
Politico reported this week that the White House is already readying a first-out-the-box $1 billion military aid package for Ukraine as soon as congressional approval is secured, including artillery, air defenses and armored vehicles — Bradley Fighting Vehicles, older-generation Humvees and M113 armored personnel carriers.
Mr. Zelenskyy singled out one part of the U.S. aid package as particularly significant, noting the new bill clears the way for Kyiv to receive the longer-range version of Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMs, that it has long coveted. For fears of provoking the Kremlin, Ukraine had been restricted to a version of the missile system that can only fire about 100 miles. Newer versions can fire up to 180 miles.
Russia’s government and state-controlled press appeared unimpressed by the U.S. aid package, noting that much of the $61 billion in funding will go to U.S. defense firms and is meant to replenish American stocks of weaponry already shipped to Ukraine.
President Biden doesn’t care about Ukraine and only needs Kyiv to hold on until November so it won’t hurt his reelection bid, Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian foreign ministry, said Sunday.
“One thing is clear: regardless of their party affiliation, the U.S. ruling elites are willing to flood the Kyiv regime with weapons for it to fight to the last Ukrainian,” Ms. Zakharova told reporters in Moscow. “Ordinary Ukrainians are being forcibly driven to slaughter as cannon fodder. The Republicans who are lobbying the interests of the U.S. defense industry … have a stake in this as well.”
New contributions
U.S. and NATO officials are hoping that approval of the American package will also spur new contributions from European and other nations in the broad coalition supporting Ukraine in the war.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, on a visit to Poland Tuesday, announced what he call the largest military support package in U.K. history, saying London will send Ukraine some $620 million in new aid including military vehicles, more than 1,600 missiles, 4m rounds of ammunition and 60 vessels.
But Mr. Sunak’s predecessor, former British Prime Minister Liz Truss, said on a Washington visit this week that far too many European countries are still “free-riding” on their NATO membership and not paying their fair share, even as Russia continues its brutal war against Ukraine.
Former President Donald Trump “was right to say to Europe: ‘You need to pay up,’” Ms. Truss said. “Europe has spent more and more money on their welfare state and less and less money on things like defense and policing, which are important for the security of our countries.”
There are too many countries in Europe that aren’t paying the current NATO standard of 2% of GDP for national defense. She said the amount should be bumped up to 3% of GDP.
“We are in a serious threat if Putin succeeds in Ukraine. He won’t stop here. He will move further,” Ms. Truss said. “If Putin were to succeed in Ukraine, that would send the most terrible message to China and President Xi Jinping.”
The prospect of new American weaponry and technology in Ukraine may actually increase the tensions in the short term, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank that closely tracks the fighting. Both Moscow and Kyiv may rush to shape the battlefield before the promised new Western aid arrives, the ISW wrote in an analysis the week.
“Ukrainian forces may suffer additional setbacks in the coming weeks while waiting for U.S. security assistance that will allow Ukraine to stabilize the front, but they will likely be able to blunt the current Russian offensive assuming the [American aid] arrives promptly,” the ISW said.
“Russian forces will likely intensify ongoing offensive operations and missile and drone strikes in the coming weeks in order to exploit the closing window of Ukrainian materiel constraints.”
• Mike Glenn can be reached at mglenn@washingtontimes.com.