Two outcomes seemed certain in the months after the Supreme Court’s June 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization: Abortions would decline and the repercussions from the fall of Roe v. Wade would usher in a new era of dominance for the Democratic Party.
Three years later, neither scenario has materialized. Republicans rebounded in November to take control of the House, Senate and White House, and the pace of abortions has defied all expectations by continuing to climb.
“Abortion volume is higher in 2024 than it was in 2023 or 2022,” the Society of Family Planning said Monday.
Figures released by the society’s #WeCount project tallied 1.14 million abortions in 2024, or about 95,000 monthly, up from 1.05 million, or 88,000 monthly, in 2023. In 2022, the rate was about 80,000 monthly, based on figures from April through December.
The number of abortions in the U.S. began ticking up in 2017 after decades of decline. The total is still well below the 1990 peak, but the trend remains disheartening for pro-life advocates as they mark the anniversary of their greatest triumph.
The third anniversary of the Dobbs v. Jackson ruling, which sent the abortion issue to the states, falls on Tuesday.
“While we celebrate Dobbs, and we celebrate our right as citizens to enact our own laws through our elected representatives, we’ve seen an increase in abortion,” Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of SBA Pro-Life America, said on a Monday press call. “And why is that?”
She noted the greater availability of abortion pills, which may now be prescribed via telehealth and sent through the mail without an in-person medical visit, and “shield laws” enacted by Democratic-led states to protect abortion clinics from out-of-state investigations and prosecutions.
“Planned Parenthood and big abortion across the country is making sure that states are shielded from [repercussions for] sending pills into other states,” Ms. Dannenfelser said, “and setting up abortion clinics along state lines to undermine the sovereignty and ability for states to enact and enforce their own laws.”
Since the Dobbs ruling, 23 states have enacted laws banning most abortions in the first trimester. Every state has an exception to save the life of the pregnant woman.
The other unforeseen outcome has been the issue’s lack of political stamina.
The Dobbs backlash was widely credited with turning the anticipated “red wave” into a “red trickle” in the November 2022 midterm elections, leading Democrats to wager heavily on abortion as the key to their 2024 strategy.
Instead, Democrats lost the presidential race and control of the Senate. Republicans kept their thin margin in the House as issues such as the economy and illegal immigration took precedence with voters.
That Republican trifecta has made possible what could be the pro-life movement’s most significant victory since Dobbs: passing a budget reconciliation bill that blocks Planned Parenthood from receiving Medicaid reimbursements for 10 years, erasing $800 million in revenue from its annual balance sheets.
“This is the moment we’ve prayed and prepared for — for decades,” said David Bereit, executive director of the Life Leadership Conference.
The conference is hosting a nationwide webcast Tuesday with more than 30 pro-life leaders ahead of the Senate vote on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which is expected this week. The House has passed the measure, and Republicans want it on President Trump’s desk by July Fourth.
“Never before have so many national pro-life and pro-family leaders united with such urgency and determination,” Mr. Bereit said Monday. “We may never have this chance again, so we’re linking arms and seizing this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity!”
Senate Democrats plan to mark the third anniversary of the “disastrous” decision with a Tuesday forum called “Under Attack: Republicans’ Escalating War on Reproductive Freedom.”
The forum, hosted by Sen. Patty Murray of Washington, will include “panelists who have suffered the consequences of the Dobbs decision and subsequent Republican abortion bans firsthand,” as well as warnings about the impact of defunding Planned Parenthood affiliates.
“Republicans in Congress are pushing through a budget reconciliation bill that would make abortion care impossible to access nearly everywhere by defunding Planned Parenthood — putting 200 health centers across the country at risk of closure and ripping away care from 1.1 million patients,” Ms. Murray’s office said.
Ms. Dannenfelser, known as “the woman who killed Roe,” dismissed such scenarios as red herrings. She noted that 5,500 federally qualified health care centers and 3,300 rural clinics offer women’s services.
These clinics accept Medicaid but do not perform abortions and outnumber Planned Parenthood facilities by a ratio of 15-to-1, according to the pro-life Charlotte Lozier Institute.
Ms. Dannenfelser said the Republicans she knows aren’t worried about 2026 election backfire from Planned Parenthood funding cuts.
“I actually think there are a lot of Republicans who are thinking, ‘Go ahead, make my day. Make abortion again No. 1, and we’ll see how it goes this time,’” she said.
• Valerie Richardson can be reached at vrichardson@washingtontimes.com.