SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea has been celebrating the 80th anniversary of the foundation of its ruling Korean Workers’ Party with a roster of global VIP guests and an after-dark parade of military might.
Midnight military spectacles have become a trademark of national leader Kim Jong-un.
Mr. Kim’s ever-expanding nuclear stockpile, massive intercontinental ballistic missiles and 1.2 million-strong armed forces offer him world-class military muscle.
They also represent a black hole at the heart of his rule.
His colossal investments in raw military force, combined with the dictatorial nature of his governance, leaves him with virtually no fiscal or policy wriggle room to upgrade his economy or improve his citizens’ lives.
Those behind-the-veil problems were not apparent in Pyongyang Thursday and Friday.
Basking in the enhanced national stature that the Ukraine War has brought North Korea’s soldiers, and the related polarization between the world’s democratic and authoritarian blocs, Mr. Kim’s guest list was impressive.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman and former President Dmitry Medvedev, Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam and multiple diplomatic delegations were in Pyongyang for the “10/10” celebrations.
Speaking at a packed May Day Stadium late Thursday, Mr. Kim called his nation “a bulwark for independence” against U.S. hegemony. He promised to “turn this country into a more affluent and beautiful land and into the best socialist paradise in the world.”
Outside experts warn, however, that the systems and investments that enable the “bulwark” negate the promises of a “paradise.”
Hard power prevents soft power
Friday’s events were held just days after the country’s fourth international arms expo concluded.
Hardware showcased at the expo included new classes of claimed hypersonic missiles — weapons that, via extreme speed and high maneuverability, can evade most air-defense systems. South Korean media called them a direct threat to military bases on its soil.
New ground combat systems included a vehicle-mounted anti-tank missile system, a tracked air-defense system — likely based on Russia’s Pantsir missile system — and a wheeled armored personnel carrier mounting a Russian-style cannon.
North Korea boasts zero soft power: No globally famed artist, writer, singer, philosopher, scientist, humanitarian, entrepreneur or technology whiz has emerged. Its hard power, however, underwrites its successful defiance of the U.S.-led international community.
Powerful interests are invested in keeping the military-industrial complex — the only globally competitive sector of the economy — churning. Those interests are backed by the personal interests of Mr. Kim himself, a graduate of the Kim Il Sung Military Academy.
“Elements of the [military-industrial complex] — the engineers, the rocket forces and the generals — are saying, ’These capabilities are good, but we need to develop them further,’ to justify their existence,” said Peter Ward, a North Korea watcher at Seoul’s Sejong Institute. “Kim reportedly sits up late at night reading military blogs, as he wants to have the same stuff, to be on equal terms, with the South Koreans and the Americans.”
Despite his nuclear deterrent, Mr. Kim continues to upgrade his country’s conventional weaponry, from predator drones to naval destroyers. For the outside world, those optics are scary.
While NATO nations struggle to raise defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product, Pyongyang’s military industrial complex consumes 26-27% of GDP, South Korean experts calculate.
“He may be overdoing it, he has enough for self defense,” said Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Seoul’s Kookmin University. “The rest looks like overkill or preparation for an invasion of South Korea.”
As a supplier for Russia’s war against Ukraine, North Korea’s armory is generating income. On Oct. 7, Ukrainian media, citing the national intelligence agency, reported that Pyongyang supplies 35%-50% of the Kremlin’s front-line ammunition: 200,000-260,000 artillery shells per month, plus tactical rockets and short-range ballistic missiles.
Mr. Kim also may be able to parlay parts of his vast armory into negotiation leverage. Feasibly, he could freeze or scrap some capabilities in return for sanctions relief or other concessions from the U.N. Security Council, the U.S. or South Korea.
But he has repeatedly, publicly and vocally made clear he will never denuclearize. That indicates that in both the strategic and policy spheres, Mr. Kim is caught in a trap of his own making.
“He clings to nuclear weapons, missiles and defense as his primary achievements,” said North Korean defector Lee Hyun-seung.
With state media constantly playing up U.S. — and to a lesser extent, South Korean and Japanese — threats, Mr. Kim can claim to be his citizens’ protector against a hostile outside world.
He is keeping Pyongyang’s elite and lesser members of North Korea’s “loyal” class on his side.
“Short-term projects like water parks, ski resorts and housing” represent “quick victories,” Mr. Lee said. But they “cannot address fundamental economic stagnation, making a true pivot to an economy-first era under Kim unlikely without significant external factors like sanctions relief.”
But his relentless emphasis on arms, arms and more arms erases the chance of raising the living standards for larger swaths of his populace.
“I think there are things he would like to do If he could: If he grows the economy, military spending might shrink as a share of GDP,” Mr. Ward said. “He would like to see U.N. sanctions gone, and some foreign investment, but the military is the number one priority.”
Business bets on North Korea historically have turned bad. European investment banks, Egyptian telecommunications companies, Swiss watchmakers and South Korean mineral-water enterprises and electronic component assembly plants have all lost money.
Hopes of a social and economic opening are “Western propaganda,” Mr. Lankov said.
“If Kim chose to surrender his nukes and opened his borders and got foreign investment and built Trump Towers, he would lose, not just his power, but his life,” he said.
Opponents of systemic change are not angry peasants but defensive elites.
“If the system collapses, up to one million members of society — the best educated in the country — will have no future,” Mr. Lankov said. “They will do everything possible to keep the populace under control and ensure the prison camps are always full, not because they are sadistic, but because it’s a survival game.”
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.