When New Jersey lawmakers rewrote the state’s election laws in the 1940s, they scheduled gubernatorial races for the year following presidential elections, hoping to insulate them from national political turbulence. That hope has long since evaporated.
This week, Rep. Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic nominee for governor, invoked President Trump more than a dozen times during a fiery debate with Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Ms. Sherrill accused Mr. Ciattarelli of being a lapdog for the president. “He will never stand up against Trump,” Ms. Sherrill declared to a boisterous crowd at Rider University.
Democrats are working overtime to keep Mr. Trump front and center in off-year elections, from gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia to the high-stakes mayoral contest in New York City.
Their strategy hinges on channeling liberal outrage over the Trump agenda, which has upended the status quo and helped propel democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani to the front of the race to be mayor of New York City.
Since his political ascent in 2016, Mr. Trump has become a gravitational force in American elections. Candidates at every level, from congressional hopefuls to local officials, have used him as a litmus test.
In Republican primaries and red-state contests, Mr. Trump’s endorsement is often a golden ticket. In Democratic strongholds, candidates compete to claim the anti-Trump mantle.
In Washington, party leaders search for opportunities to stymie Mr. Trump, from denying him his nominees to threatening a government shutdown over his spending plans.
In the states, Democrats compete to file the most anti-Trump lawsuits.
The anti-Trump sentiment has helped Democrats paper over lasting schisms within their coalition, which has struggled over questions of illegal immigration, transgender rights and other hot-button topics.
Mr. Trump has leaned into his dominance, taking to social media to take credit for victories while deflecting blame for losses.
Democrats are hoping voters, who just returned Mr. Trump to office, are already weary of his second term.
History may be on their side, as presidents typically lose ground in midterm elections.
Mr. Trump experienced this firsthand in 2017, watching the governorships in New Jersey and Virginia go to Democrats and then, a year later, watching as Republicans lost 40 seats and control of the U.S. House.
Eight years earlier, President Obama, in his first year in office, saw the New Jersey and Virginia governorships flip Republican. The tea party revolution then propelled Republicans to control of the House and a net six Senate seats in the 2010 midterm elections.
“Trump probably has the most influence when he is on the ballot,” said presidential historian Gerhard Peters. “He turns out a type of voter who typically and historically was not engaged and often didn’t vote. So many of these people aren’t showing up in these off-year elections and midterms.”
In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger is leaning into anti-Trump messaging in her bid for governor against Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, whose ties to Trump and the MAGA movement have been nuanced.
Ms. Spanberger’s latest ad brands Ms. Earle-Sears a “MAGA Republican” and blames her for backing “Trump policies that are raising prices on everything,” from groceries to electricity.
Mr. Trump remains a polarizing figure in the Old Dominion. A Christopher Newport University poll released this week found nearly 60% of likely Virginia voters disapprove of the president’s job performance.
In New York City, Mr. Trump’s presence is reshaping the mayoral race.
Despite concerns over his liberal platform, including proposals for free buses and child care and rent stabilization, Mr. Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, has gained traction, thanks in part to Mr. Trump’s looming influence over the city where he cultivated a larger-than-life image as a real estate tycoon.
“New York needs leaders who will put aside differences, stand up and fight back against Mr. Trump,” Gov. Kathy Hochul wrote in a recent New York Times op-ed endorsing Mr. Mamdani. “Mr. Mamdani and I will both be fearless in confronting the president’s extreme agenda — with urgency, conviction and the defiance that defines New York.”
A CBS News/YouGov poll echoes that sentiment, showing that nearly half of registered voters in the city want the next mayor to actively oppose Mr. Trump.
Meanwhile, Mayor Eric Adams and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, both Democrats running as independents, have flirted with Mr. Trump’s orbit, hoping his involvement in the race might undercut Mr. Mamdani’s momentum.
Looking forward, Mr. Trump’s influence is already shaping the midterm landscape.
He pressured Texas Republicans to redraw congressional maps to bolster the Republicans’ slim House majority, which is crucial for advancing his agenda over the next two years.
In response, California Democrats, led by Gov. Gavin Newsom, introduced a ballot measure aimed at curbing what they call Mr. Trump’s “unchecked power” and his “Republican lapdogs.”
The Trump effect is also defining Georgia’s Republican gubernatorial primary. Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, endorsed by Trump, was among 16 Republicans who signed false certificates claiming Trump won Georgia in 2020.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who famously resisted Trump’s pressure to “find” votes, is also in the race, along with former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, who left the Republican Party over Trump’s influence.
As the 2025 off-year elections unfold, one thing is clear: Trump may not be on the ballot, but his presence is unmistakable.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.