Democrats envision a perfect political storm sweeping across Texas next year, propelling them to victory in the U.S. Senate race and ending their 30-year losing streak in statewide elections.
The dream could come true, according to political analysts, and now a George Soros-backed group is shoveling money into the cause while potential candidates are thumping their chests.
The Democrats’ optimistic outlook derives from President Trump not being on the ballot and a growing sense that four-term Sen. John Cornyn is in jeopardy of losing the GOP primary race to state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a more polarizing figure who has not run in a high-profile, competitive statewide race.
“Paxton has never had to face a race where he is in the title bout, he is on the marquee,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University. “He’s always been on the undercard.”
The Paxton factor has played into the concerns among Republicans that if he’s the nominee, the economy is in the doldrums, and Mr. Trump’s approval rating has fallen, it could open the door for Democrats to field a quality candidate, mobilize voters, and pull off an upset.
That’s a lot of ifs, but it’s also the stuff dreams are made of.
Mr. Jones said Republicans, who hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, are in the driver’s seat and the Texas GOP is eager to do what they are accustomed to: dashing the dreams of Democrats.
“Republicans like the fact that Democrats hadn’t won a race statewide since 1994 as a demoralizing factor,” he said. “So what they don’t want to do is give Democrats hope by allowing them to win a statewide race, especially a high-profile race like the US Senate race.”
Now, more than 500 days out from the midterm elections, Republicans are building on the success they achieved in the 2024 election, while Democrats look to 2018 for inspiration.
That was the year of “Beto-mania.”
In 2018, Rep. Beto O’Rourke emerged as the fresh face of the Democratic resistance in his race against Sen. Ted Cruz, the ambitious conservative firebrand loathed by Democrats and some Republicans.
Mr. O’Rourke tapped into the vast pool of anti-Trump sentiment to energize voters, particularly young supporters, and shattered fundraising records.
Yet, Mr. Cruz survived, eking out a win by less than 3 percentage points.
Democrats saw it as a moral victory and a potential sign of things to come in Texas, buoyed further by the fact that they flipped ten legislative seats in Austin, a pair of seats in the U.S. House, and came within four points of ousting Mr. Paxton, who had served as the state’s top cop since 2015.
Mr. Trump took a sledgehammer to that optimism in the 2024 election.
Mr. Trump carried the state by nearly 14 points over Democrat Kamala Harris. Mr. Cruz was less successful, but still defeated his Democratic challenger, Rep. Colin Allred, by more than 8 points.
Republicans also flipped three seats in the Texas legislature.
Democrats are now taking solace in the fact that Mr. Trump will not be on the ballot, and that some voters have lost faith in his ability to address their economic concerns.
A recent survey by Texas Southern University shows Mr. Trump’s support has tapered off since the November election.
Among the 86% of voters who said they backed Mr. Trump, 9% said they would vote for Ms. Harris if given another chance, and 5% said they would not vote, cast their ballot for a third-party candidate, or did not know.
All eyes are now on the plans of Mr. Allred, a former professional football player who served three terms in the U.S. House after flipping a Dallas-area seat in 2018.
Mr. Allred is openly considering another run, and most Democrats see him as the party’s strongest possible contender..
Mr. Allred said he would “run differently” if he ran and previewed his possible line of attack against both Mr. Cornyn and Mr. Paxton.
“I’ve been looking at the Senate race because of my experience at the federal level,” Mr. Allred said on Lone Star Politics, a political television show produced by Dallas’ KXAS and The Dallas Morning News.
“I see somebody, Ken Paxton, who I think is historically corrupt and was impeached by a Republican legislature because of that,” he said. “And I see John Cornyn, who I don’t really recognize, as somebody who I think has lost any semblance of independence.”
The GOP field could continue to grow, as Rep. Wesley Hunt is also considering a run.
The Democrats’ focus on Texas underscores the challenge the 2024 Senate map poses to the party.
Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia is the most vulnerable Democrat.
Meanwhile, the party is defending three seats in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire that are more vulnerable due to retirements, and their best pickup opportunities involve knocking off Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina.
Democrats in Texas have started gearing up for the battle.
The Paxton campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
The Soros-backed Texas Majority PAC and the Texas Democrats recently announced they were partnering on a new “Blue Texas” campaign aimed at recruiting candidates and building the “largest Democratic voter mobilization program in Texas history.”
“With Trump back in the White House and Ken Paxton dragging down the GOP ticket, we have a massive opportunity to win in 2026,” said Katherine Fischer, director of Texas Majority PAC. “Our efforts this cycle are aimed at winning in the short-term, and making Texas a true battleground state in the long term.”
Joshua Blank, research director of The Texas Politics Project at The University of Texas at Austin, said Democrats face an uphill battle, but that it is not an impossible task, particularly if Mr. Cornyn loses in the primary.
“The reality is that Cornyn likely would be able to win re-election in Texas, barring some unforeseen circumstances,” Mr. Blank said. “Whether or not Ken Paxton could be as successful as Cornyn is really an open question.”
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.