SEOUL, South Korea — As South Koreans mull the aftershocks of a deadly air crash, the country’s ongoing political crisis has no end in sight — making 2025 look far from upbeat.
A jarring month that saw a failed effort to impose martial law, a deadly plane crash that killed some 179 passengers, and the prospect of further political gridlock, impeachment battles and partisan bitterness has rocked what was long seen as one of America’s most stable and prosperous allies in the region.
South Korea is “currently confronted with an unprecedentedly serious situation,” acting President Choi Sang-mok acknowledged in a somber New Year’s Day address to the nation. “The government will dedicate itself to ensuring stability in all areas, including national defense, diplomacy, economy and society.”
While the country’s attention is gripped by Sunday’s Muan International Airport heartbreak, the country’s political and judicial crises lurch onward. A new precedent was broken on Wednesday with the potential arrest of a sitting South Korean president, while Mr. Choi separately moved to assuage the opposition-controlled National Assembly.
The fragility of political leadership — Mr. Choi is the third man to lead the nation this month — has sparked diplomatic uncertainty and economic volatility in a nation that grants U.S. troops their only mainland Asia footprint and is a central node in global tech supply chains.
Unhappy new year
A national week of mourning in the wake of the crash landing of a Jeju Air Boeing 737-800 has led to the toning down, postponement or cancellation of New Year’s celebrations. Customary fireworks shows have been called off, and central Seoul light and lantern festivals are reportedly to be held in “quiet mode.”
Investigators from South Korea and the U.S. have embarked upon what looks to be a lengthy process to determine what caused the tragedy. A team of eight U.S. investigators — one from the Federal Aviation Administration, three from the National Transportation Safety Board and four from Boeing — made their first on-site inspection of the crash site Tuesday.
But already harsh questions, pointing to multiple levels of human error, are being raised domestically and internationally.
Why did the pilots of the stricken aircraft not follow crisis-control protocols in the air? Why did they not lower their undercarriage?
Why did the airport’s control tower permit a crash landing in the opposite direction of landing on a runway, where a concrete barrier lay beyond the tarmac? And why did authorities allow concrete in the construction of a stand for navigation antennae, rather than less rigid materials?
The horror of the crash briefly eclipsed a national governance crisis that is now roaring back into the headlines, a crisis sparked when President Yoon Suk Yeol, infuriated by parliamentary obstructionism, stunned the nation by declaring martial law on Dec. 3.
The move proved disastrous. It was voted down by parliamentarians within hours, and Mr. Yoon was impeached just 11 days later.
His impeachment will be either upheld or rejected by the Constitutional Court in the coming months. With Mr. Yoon the third of recent South Korean presidents to be impeached, court protocols for the process are well oiled.
But the political crisis is far from contained, as national demonstrations continue and other agencies assert themselves. On Wednesday, a new front was opened in the struggle.
A court granted arrest and search warrants to a group of agencies — the Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials and police and military investigation arms — which have accused Mr. Yoon of treason.
An actual arrest would be a first for a sitting South Korean president, though many have gone behind bars after leaving office. Wednesday’s court’s decision sets up a legal battle with Mr. Yoon’s lawyers. The move could also ignite an agency vs. agency civil war within the government itself.
Mr. Yoon has ignored multiple summonses from investigators, and his security team has prevented police, seeking evidence, from entering the presidential compound.
While the executive faces immense pressure, the opposition-controlled legislature faces its own upheavals. In the National Assembly, the majority opposition, the Democratic Party of Korea, last Friday sought the impeachment of Mr. Yoon’s first acting successor, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, for refusing to sign off the appointment of three justices to fill the nine-member bench of the Constitutional Court.
Mr. Yoon is the third South Korean president to be impeached, but never before have a president and his successor both suffered the same fate.
Acting President Choi, who took office after Mr. Han’s exit, approved on Wednesday the appointment of two justices to the court: one put forth by the DPK and one by Mr. Yoon’s own conservative People Power Party. He held off on appointing the third, proposed by the DPK. Mr. Choi’s moves would give the court eight judges, one short of its full complement.
“I decided to appoint the Constitutional Court justices because of the need to end the political uncertainty and social conflict as soon as possible,” he said.
It is unclear if the opposition will be satisfied. At least six judges on the nine-member court must vote in favor of impeachment. If impeachment is upheld, a presidential election would be called within two months. Those timings argue against a swift resolution.
Pressures all around
Political speculation in Seoul has focused on which pivotal political figure will face justice first: Mr. Yoon, or opposition DPK leader Lee Jae-myung, who is also facing charges related to alleged corruption and perjury during his time as a local politician.
Another question is whether the crisis-battered PPP can remain intact as a political force.
“Looking at the DPK led by Lee Jae-myung these days, it seems like a well-trained army. … They are in perfect order,” columnist Kim Dae-jung wrote in the conservative Chosun Ilbo newspaper. Turning to the conservative forces, he wrote “To put it harshly, it is a mess. It is not just that there is no order, but that they are in conflict with each other.”
The left-wing Hankyoreh newspaper shot back that Mr. Yoon and his party have no one but themselves to blame.
“As the PPP continues to follow the path of ‘a party that supports internal rebellion,’ it will become increasingly distant from the majority of the public and will inevitably become isolated,” the paper editorialized.
With the legislature having asserted its dominance over the executive via what one observer calls “governance by impeachment,” national leadership remains a fraught question heading into the new year. South Korea’s well-oiled bureaucratic and business sectors continue to operate, but the new year also presents fresh risks from abroad.
Lacking certainty about their own future, officials cannot build ties with the incoming Trump administration in Washington, soon to assume office in South Korea’s leading ally.
And the fragile state of national leadership leaves many here devoutly hoping that no new North Korean or foreign policy crisis erupts.
The economy has emerged as yet another source of anxiety. According to Bank of Korea analyses, in the fourth quarter, the South Korea won hit 16-year lows, comparable to the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Big exporting businesses may benefit from cheaper prices for their goods, but the average South Korean will face higher prices for imported goods and overseas travel.
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.