President Trump’s pick to be the next undersecretary of defense for policy, a key position, will face off against senators during a Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing on his nomination Tuesday.

Elbridge Colby, a self-described conservative realist, is expected to be questioned about his views on Taiwan that some analysts say are out of the mainstream and risk undermining strategic deterrence of China.

Committee Chairman Sen. Roger Wicker said senators will get a chance to examine Mr. Colby’s policy views and should find “a lot of clarity” regarding the nominee.  “We’re going to have a hearing and see what we can find out,” the Mississippi Republican said through a spokesman.

Some fellow Republicans, including Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, a member of the armed services panel, have raised questions about Mr. Colby’s views on China and Iran.

Few Republican or Democratic senators on the committee who are critical of Mr. Colby have stated their views. Sen. Joni Ernst, Iowa Republican, said she has worked with Mr. Colby and had a great meeting with the nominee.

“Bridge is going to work to implement President Trump’s peace through strength agenda,” she said.

Mr. Cotton has raised his concerns about the nominee to the White House, setting off fierce criticism of the senators from Trump supporters who claim Mr. Cotton is trying to torpedo the nomination.

After reports of the concerns surfaced, Vice President J.D. Vance defended the nominee on social media from critics who noted Mr. Colby favors many of the national security policies from the Obama and Biden administrations and worked for Democratic-aligned organizations.

Mr. Colby “has consistently been correct about the big foreign policy debates of the last 20 years,” Mr. Vance wrote on X.

The sentiment was seconded by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth who said Mr. Colby would implement President Trump’s agenda — unlike appointees in the first administration that Mr. Hegseth said had tried to undermine Mr. Trump.

The nominee did not respond to a request for comment on the hearing.

A White House National Security Council spokesman referred to National Security Adviser Mike Waltz who said last month that Mr. Colby has the president’s full support. Mr. Colby is a favorite of former Fox News commentator Tucker Carlson who reportedly pressed for Mr. Colby to be White House national security adviser. He was rejected for that position by Mr. Trump in favor of Mr. Waltz, a Republican congressman and former Army Green Beret commando.

Mr. Colby outlined his views on China and Taiwan on his X account last year and is considered a China hawk who favors a policy of détente with China to avoid a conflict.

On Taiwan, Mr. Colby indicated he favors reducing the importance of Taiwan in the United States’ strategic standoff against China.

For example, he stated in October that he is unsure if the United States has the resolve and ability to defend Taiwan.

That statement is at odds with the commander of the Indo-Pacific Command, Adm. Sam Paparo, who has said U.S. forces would defeat China in a war over the island but at a great cost in lives and equipment.

“Taiwan is a very important but not existential interest for America,” Mr. Colby stated on X. “The real focus is denying China regional hegemony there. Thus defending Taiwan must make cost-benefit sense for Americans.”

In another post, Mr. Colby criticized Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te for comments saying it is impossible for China to be Taiwan’s motherland.

Mr. Colby stated that the remark was inflammatory and that it was not the time for Taipei to be pushing “assertive, contentious political claims.”

“America is out of position and Taiwan is spending a measly 2.5% of GDP on defense,” he stated.

Like Mr. Trump, Mr. Colby believes Taiwan’s government has become over-reliant on the United States and must do more for its own defense.

Mr. Colby also stated that, based on how he sees Taiwan, “the only logical and coherent position is to raise alarm that we are heading to a situation in which defending Taiwan won’t make sense and may not even be possible.”

In June, Mr. Colby said he did not believe China’s communist rulers were driven by Marxist-Leninist ideology. Instead, he believes Xi Jinping is seeking to rejuvenate the nation.

The comments were made during a debate hosted by the journal Foreign Affairs when Matthew Pottinger, deputy national security adviser in Mr. Trump’s first term, said the policy of managed competition with China sounded similar to the failed detente policy toward the Soviet Union in the Cold War.

Mr. Pottinger said a new policy of defeating the Chinese Communist Party is needed but that does not mean war or capitulation. A winning policy could result in a different form of government in China, he said.

Mr. Colby responded that detente, from a position of strength, is needed to counter China and said the overthrow of the Soviet Union did not bring victory since Vladimir Putin eventually took over Russia and “is worse than what we faced.”

Mr. Colby then said Chinese President Xi Jinping’s plan to rejuvenate China “essentially has nothing to do with Marxism” but rather with nationalistic impulses.

Mr. Colby predicted that three policy camps on China would emerge in the second Trump administration.

They include “freedom fighters” like Mr. Pottinger seeking to promote American ideals abroad; “disentanglers” like Mr. Vance, who are economically oriented in dealing with China; and a third camp led by Mr. Colby of conservative realists.

The realists believe that maintaining a stalemate with Beijing and managing competition to avoid conflict should be put in place – policies similar to those of the Biden administration.

Former State Department China policymaker Miles Yu said now is not the time to downplay the importance of Taiwan in confronting the challenge from China.

“At its core, China’s aggression toward Taiwan isn’t about national unity — it’s about undermining the U.S. and the global democratic order,” Mr. Yu wrote in a column for Threat Status.

The Chinese Communist Party “views itself as locked in an ideological battle with the free world, with America as its main adversary,” he said. “Taiwan is living proof that a Chinese society can be free, prosperous, and democratic, without the CCP’s iron grip.”

Retired Navy Capt. Stu Cvrk said Mr. Colby’s past associations with WestExec Advisors, a consulting firm formed by former Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the Democrat-founded Center for New American Security, are red flags.

“His strategic positions align more with Obama-Biden than with Trump, in my opinion, which could be expected for someone within the WestExec/CNAS orbit,” Mr. Cvrk said.

“Was he jockeying to get a position in the Biden administration? Someone should ask him that question, too.”

Comments by Mr. Colby, as a conservative realist, indicate he does not understand the need to confront, contain and reduce communist China’s influence in East and South Asia on one of the most important fronts — the ideological front, he said.

“That was not how Reagan defeated the former Soviet Union,” he said.

Former State Department official John Tkacik, a Taiwan expert, said Mr. Colby is a strategist and understands how the U.S. defense industry infrastructure has weakened since 2003.

But Mr. Tkacik said he disagrees with the nominee on Taiwan’s defense spending, noting that during the first Trump administration the island purchased a record $18 billion in U.S. arms.

Also, Mr. Colby also appears to have a superficial appreciation for Taiwan’s linchpin role in East Asia’s advanced technology economy, Mr. Tkacik said.

“Otherwise, I suspect he wouldn’t be so cavalier about Taiwan’s strategic importance to America’s economy and security,” he said.

Grant Newsham, a China expert, said he suspects Mr. Colby will be confirmed and will be an improvement over defense policymakers under the Biden administration.

“I’m not sure he understands the nature of the Chinese Communist Party – and might consider it just another ‘rising power’ with legitimate claims and limited objectives,” Mr. Newsham said. “Along these lines he seems to think the CCP is a regime with which we can coexist – along the lines of the détente we had with the Soviets.”

Mr. Newsham said Mr. Xi and the Chinese leadership are Marxist and view the United States as the obstacle to China’s regional and then global domination: “The old Chinese expression: ‘You die, I live’ comes to mind,” he said.

Mr. Colby also appears unsure about supporting Taiwan, Mr. Newsham said, noting comments about Taiwan needing to do more for its defenses.

“But it’s unclear how far he would go to actually protect Taiwan from Chinese aggression – of all sorts – blockade to outright invasion of all or part of Taiwan,” he said.

Mr. Colby may believe the loss of Taiwan is “manageable” rather than a geopolitical catastrophe that gives the Chinese a huge military advantage, while also discrediting U.S. power, Mr. Newsham said.

Another worry about Taiwan is that Chinese military “overmatch” around the island might become so overwhelming that Mr. Colby and his aides may decide nothing can be done and capitulate to a Chinese takeover, he said.

“The U.S. and its allies are capable of taking on and defeating the CCP – not just holding it at bay,” said Mr. Newsham, author of a book on political warfare. “And we can do it without fighting. I wonder if [Mr. Colby] is preemptively discarding this option of directly targeting the CCP and its legitimacy.”

On Iran, the pro-Israeli publication Tablet said Mr. Colby’s foreign policy views “are the same as Obama’s and Biden’s on the issues that President Trump has identified as the top threats to America—China, Russia, and Iran.”

Critics of Mr. Colby’s views on the Middle East also say he is willing to accept a nuclear-armed Iran.

But Heritage Foundation analyst Robert Peters said Mr. Colby is a staunch supporter of Israel.

“I cannot fathom a world in which Bridge is ambivalent about a nuclear-armed Iran,” Mr. Peters said in urging Senate confirmation. “Such an outcome would contradict both American interests and the interests of our regional allies and partners.

Mr. Colby will seek a Defense Department that puts U.S. interests first, he stated in a recent Heritage report.

• Bill Gertz can be reached at bgertz@washingtontimes.com.