SOUTH ORANGE, N.J. — Americans consume over 1.6 million tons of coffee each year. That morning fix is set to get more expensive.
The price of java is a hot point of contention after President Trump imposed a whopping 50% tariff on Brazil, the world’s largest producer of coffee.
The latest U.S. inflation report said coffee prices rose 14.5% in July, year-over-year. Now, some American buyers are pausing shipments from Brazil while lobbying for a carveout from tariffs that could push costs higher.
“Buyers have postponed new deals, awaiting developments in trade negotiations. In the short term, the U.S. industry is expected to rely on existing inventories before making new purchases under the new tariff — or in anticipation of a policy shift,” said Guilherme Morya, a senior analyst at Rabobank who studies the coffee market. “While U.S. consumer prices may take time to reflect the tariff, future increases are possible.”
The menu at Elitist Coffee in South Orange, New Jersey — a commuter suburb of New York City — reads like a map of the world, with offerings from Papua New Guinea to Brazil.
Costs have risen, generally, in recent years for pastries and other items, so new tariffs on global suppliers pose another challenge.
“It is a cause for concern, especially as a small business and woman- and Black-owned business,” said Amanda Arostegui, a manager. “We are looking into other resources.”
She said that means tapping into their online portal, which shows different producer regions and markets, to find the most cost-effective places of origin.
“It’s about pricing now,” she said. “It’s a wait-and-see situation.”
Some on Capitol Hill want to zero out coffee-related tariffs before they filter through the marketplace.
Rep. Ro Khanna, California Democrat, said he will introduce legislation to exempt coffee from new tariffs, citing the lack of coffee production within the U.S.
He said the U.S. produces less than 1% of the coffee supply, so tariffs on Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia and Colombia amount to a “15-20% tax on Americans at the start of their day.”
“Anyone who has a coffee cup always in hand hates this tax!” Mr. Khanna said on X.
If the Boston Tea Party was a fight over a tax on Indian tea, he wrote on X, “our movement can take a stand over a tax on Brazil’s coffee!”
Two-thirds of Americans drink coffee every day, according to the National Coffee Association. Most drinkers prepare their coffee at home, and grocery stores remain the most popular place to buy coffee, though online sales are growing.
Mr. Trump is using tariffs to collect revenue on imports, gain leverage over foreign nations and — in the long term — shift production of consumer products from overseas to U.S. towns and cities.
However, coffee-growing requires specific conditions related to climate and altitude to grow, severely limiting U.S. production to Hawaii and pockets of California and Puerto Rico.
That leaves the U.S. reliant on foreign producers such as Brazil.
Brazil accounts for 37% of global coffee production, followed by Vietnam at 17%, Colombia at 8% and Indonesia and Ethiopia, each at 6%, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Earlier this year, Mr. Trump imposed a blanket 10% tariff on imports.
On July 30, he imposed a whopping 50% rate on products from Brazil, citing in part the prosecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro over the ex-leader’s actions following his 2022 election loss.
“Political persecution, through drummed up prosecutions, threatens the orderly development of Brazil’s political, administrative, and economic institutions, including undermining the ability of Brazil to hold a free and fair election of the presidency in 2026,” Mr. Trump wrote.
The tariffs just took effect, so it will take time to evaluate their impact on coffee prices. The price increases for coffee in the Consumer Price Index for July may be attributed to factors such as climate and weather issues.
Still, economists say coffee drinkers should expect higher costs unless policymakers strike a deal to exempt the product from tariffs.
“The risks from higher coffee prices, for foreign producers in Brazil and elsewhere as well as U.S. importers and retailers, are serious,” said David Gantz, the Will Clayton Fellow for Trade and International Economics at the Center for the United States and Mexico/Baker Institute at Rice University.
“U.S. consumer coffee consumption currently is at a 20-year high, and specialty coffees are increasing in popularity,” he said. “Higher prices could discourage some consumers, or encourage them to consider alternative beverages, although serious coffee drinkers will probably pay the higher prices.”
Cecafe, which represents Brazilian coffee exporters, said U.S. buyers are postponing shipments while it hopes for a reprieve through negotiations.
“They have inventory for 30 to 60 days, which gives them some breathing room to wait a little longer for ongoing negotiations,” Cecafe President Marcio Ferreira told Reuters.
Current Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva rebuked Mr. Trump over recent tariffs but stopped short of issuing retaliatory levies, saying he doesn’t want to worsen the situation and remains open to negotiations.
Instead, Mr. Lula unveiled an aid package on Wednesday to assist domestic sectors, including coffee, that will be impacted by U.S. tariffs.
Analysts expect big retailers and consumer brands to lobby for a coffee exemption from the White House.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment on whether Mr. Trump would consider an exemption for coffee. Other products, including aircraft, energy and orange juice, were carved out of the hefty levies on Brazil.
For now, U.S. coffee buyers might look beyond Brazil to avoid the biggest tariffs, though levies ranging from 10% to 20% on alternatives like Colombia and Vietnam make it difficult to avoid tariff-related costs entirely.
Brazil, meanwhile, might look to sell more of its products in non-U.S. markets.
“What does seem probable, at least for major U.S. importers and major coffee traders worldwide, is some restructuring of supply chains, so that the U.S. can import less Brazilian coffee and more coffee from alternative sources, with Brazilian coffee being substituted in other markets in Europe and Asia,” Mr. Gantz said.
Starbucks, the ubiquitous coffee behemoth, told The Washington Times it is focused on its “Back to Starbucks” plan to improve in-store service and boost sales. It has pledged not to raise prices at company-owned coffee houses in North America through fiscal year 2025.
The company said it sources coffee from more than 450,000 farmers in 30 countries and “has a long history of successfully navigating global changes.”
In South Orange, Ms. Arostegui hopes she can keep serving the house blend from Central America that represents a part of herself. Her father is from Nicaragua.
“It’s great to have a piece of my culture here,” she said. “But at what cost?”
• Tom Howell Jr. can be reached at thowell@washingtontimes.com.