The votes of third-party candidates have repeatedly shaped American presidential elections, from Ross Perot’s significant 20% showing in 1992 that impacted George H.W. Bush’s chances, to Ralph Nader’s influence in Florida in 2000, to the combined impact of third-party candidates exceeding the margin of victory in key states in both 2016 and 2020. Now, as the 2024 presidential election approaches, Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Libertarian Chase Oliver, and former candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are poised to potentially tip the balance in deadlocked battleground states.
While these candidates may only draw small percentages in the polls - with Stein reaching up to 2% in swing states and Oliver attracting less than 1% in most surveys - their combined impact could prove decisive in determining whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump wins the White House.
Historical Precedent
Third-party candidates have previously affected recent presidential outcomes:
1992: Ross Perot captured nearly 20% of the popular vote, largely at George H.W. Bush’s expense
2000: Ralph Nader potentially affected Al Gore’s chances in Florida
2016: Jill Stein and Gary Johnson’s combined votes surpassed Hillary Clinton’s margin of loss in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania
2020: Jo Jorgensen’s vote total exceeded Trump’s margin of loss in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin
How Third Parties Can Have Potential Impact in 2024
Jill Stein (Green Party)
• She will be on the ballot in 39 states, including six of seven key battleground states.
• Polling shows she could come away with up to 2% in swing states.
• Her platform is particularly known for its an anti-war, anti-fossil-fuels positions.
• There is pressure from the European Greens to drop out and endorse Harris.
Chase Oliver (Libertarian Party)
• He’s present on ballots in 48 states, including all battleground states.
• Polling shows he’ll claim than 1% of those votes in most surveys.
• His campaign pushes anti-war and free-trade positions.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
• Though now supporting Trump, RFK Jr. remains on ballots in Michigan and Wisconsin.
• Polling still shows a significant 5% in Wisconsin.
Analysis
The data suggests that even seemingly small percentages of third-party support can prove significant in close races. With multiple battleground states expected to be decided by narrow margins, the combined impact of Stein, Oliver, and RFK Jr. alone might make an impactful mark in determining the next president.
The latest Suffolk Poll shows Pennsylvania deadlocked at 48.6% for Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris. Ms. Stein and Mr. Chase could see just 1% combined according to the poll, but pundits warn that could still be enough to sway the race.
As nonpartisan pollster Ron Faucheux tells the Times, “If a state is close enough, their vote could determine who wins it.”
This article is written with the assistance of generative artificial intelligence based solely on Washington Times original reporting and wire services. For more information, please read our AI policy or contact Ann Wog, Managing Editor for Digital, at awog@washingtontimes.com
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