The CIA has released a new assessment concluding that COVID-19 most likely originated from a laboratory in China, though the agency acknowledges it has “low confidence” in this finding. The assessment, declassified under recently appointed CIA Director John Ratcliffe, wasn’t based on new intelligence but rather a fresh analysis of existing data.
The evaluation suggests that while both laboratory and natural origin scenarios remain plausible, the totality of evidence points more strongly toward a lab origin. However, the low confidence rating indicates the available evidence remains inconclusive or contradictory.
The assessment examined intelligence about the virus’ spread, its scientific characteristics and operations at Chinese virology facilities. Intelligence officials note that reaching a definitive conclusion may be impossible due to limited cooperation from Chinese authorities.
The release comes amid continued pressure from lawmakers for clarity on the pandemic’s origins. Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Tom Cotton praised the finding and called for holding China accountable. Chinese officials have previously rejected such speculation as politically motivated.
Scientists maintain that the virus likely originated in bats before spreading to intermediate animals like raccoon dogs or civet cats, eventually reaching humans at a Wuhan market. However, some investigations have suggested alternative scenarios, including the Energy Department’s low-confidence assessment favoring a lab leak theory, and then-FBI Director Christopher Wray’s similar conclusion.
Chinese authorities have dismissed speculation about COVID’s origins in the past as unhelpful and motivated by politics.
Read more: The CIA believes COVID most likely originated from a lab but has low confidence in its own finding
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