China’s military simulated attacks on Taiwan in recent days that included mock missile strikes and joint operations revealing details of Beijing’s plan to reach a promised goal of taking over the island democracy, according to military affairs analysts.

More than 20 warships and dozens of bombers and other warplanes took part in war games encircling Taiwan just three days after the inauguration in Taipei of pro-independence President Lai Chin Tai.

The Taiwanese president said in his speech May 20 that his administration marks 28 years of democratic rule and sends a signal to the world that “Taiwan is a sovereign, independent nation in which sovereignty lies in the hands of the people.”

Three days after the speech, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) kicked off the largest war games in two years, which Chinese state media reported were intended as a punitive action against the new president.

Mr. Lai “seriously challenged the one-China principle … pushing our compatriots in Taiwan into a perilous situation of war and danger,” Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said Friday.

“Every time ‘Taiwan independence’ provokes us, we will push our countermeasures one step further, until the complete reunification of the motherland is achieved,” he said.

SEE ALSO: House lawmakers arrive in Taiwan amid Chinese government’s threats

State-run media showed video of the exercises, named Joint Sword2024A, that included PLA troops streaming out of a building to take up battle stations, and fighter jets taking off accompanied by stirring martial music.

China Central Television reported PLA sailors warned Taiwanese navy counterparts against “resisting reunification by force.”

The military also posted a graphic showing missiles flying toward key targets in Taiwan and declaring the strikes will “cut off the blood vessels for Taiwan independence!” declared the drills were practice for seizing territory.

“The drills also serve as a strong punishment for the separatist acts of ‘Taiwan independence’ forces and a stern warning against the interference and provocation by external forces,” stated Chinamil.com, China’s official online military outlet.

A map published in one Chinese outlet showed five separate PLA operating areas in a circle around the island.

Military affairs analysts said the exercises were larger than those carried out in August 2022 to protest the visit to Taiwan by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

However, no missile firings were reported during the most recent exercises. In 2022, several ballistic missiles were fired in test launches during those war games.

Coordinated operations

On Thursday, the Taiwan Defense Ministry tracked 49 PLA aircraft, 19 PLA warships and seven coast guard vessels. Thirty-five of the aircraft crossed the median line down the middle of the Taiwan Strait.

By Friday a total of 62 aircraft and 27 warships were operating around the island with 47 aircraft crossing the median line.

The warships included guided missile-firing destroyers, frigates and patrol boats. Aircraft that took part included H-6 bombers, J-16 and J-10 fighters and airborne warning and control planes.

Missile forces in areas near Taiwan were activated as part of the exercises and included units armed with short-range DF-15 and DF-11 missiles, according to the online defense blog OSINT Experts.

The PLA described the exercises as “closing in combat patrols” around Taiwan using joint forces “inside and outside the island chain” – a geopolitical designation used by the Chinese military to describe islands at various distances from its coast.

Sr. Capt. Li Xi, a spokesman for the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command, said in a statement Friday that the exercise tested the command’s ability to jointly take control of the battlefield, launch joint strikes, and seize control of specific areas.

The military drills also practiced coordination between warships and warplanes, “sea assault and land attack,” and joint strike systems.

Units along the coast in Fujian province prepared long-range multiple rocket launch systems that conducted mock strikes on Friday, as seen in video made public by the PLA.

“We, the rocket artillery forces, can strike far, accurately and fiercely. We can deliver full-domain, round-the-clock precision strikes on targets,” state media quoted Jiang Xiaodong, a brigade officer, as saying.

Invasion plans hinted

Retired U.S. Navy Capt. Jim Fanell, a former Pacific Fleet intelligence director said the latest exercises were shorter than the 2023 version of Joint Sword indicating the PLA is honing its warfighting skills and sharpening its command and control with the aim of using military power in a shorter, more-concentrated time frame.

“In essence the PLA is fulfilling their stated goal of being able to conduct a ‘short, sharp war,’” Capt. Fanell said.

Naming specific training goals and elements such as “joint sea-air combat-readiness patrol, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, and joint precision strikes on key targets” also supports plans for waging short but intense conflict, he said.

Capt. Fanell said the sea closure areas during the latest exercises were much closer to Taiwan than the 2023 exercises. That signals the PLA is “testing to see just how close they will be able to actually operate off Taiwan before generating a kinetic response from Taiwan, Japan or the U.S.,” he said.

“This is invaluable information to obtain and will provide Beijing a great advantage if or when they decide to conduct an invasion,” Capt. Fanell said.

U.S. forces need to build up additional military power in the region by adding a second aircraft carrier strike group in the region. A national military mobilization program also should be launched that would rapidly build new weapons to deter China, Capt. Fanell said.

“Make no mistake, a PLA invasion of Taiwan will very likely include an attack on American forces in Asia,” he said.

U.S. response

The Pentagon said on Saturday it has no plans to add forces in the region.

“The [Defense] Department remains confident in current U.S. force posture and operations in the Indo-Pacific region with our allies and partners to safeguard peace, stability, and our national security,” Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said.

Instead of condemning the war games, Gen. Ryder said the drills are being closely monitored and repeated that the U.S. “one-China policy” that remains in place. The policy acknowledges that Taiwan is part of China but does not recognize Beijing’s sovereignty over the island.

The State Department announced it is “deeply concerned” by the exercises and urged Beijing to “act with restraint.”

“Using a normal, routine, and democratic transition as an excuse for military provocations risks escalation and erodes longstanding norms that for decades have maintained peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, which is critical for regional and global security and prosperity and a matter of international concern,” the department said in a statement Saturday.

On Capitol Hill, the two top members of the House Select Committee on the CCP, criticized the PLA exercises as a brazen attempt to intimidate Taiwan after its elections.

The war games are “completely unacceptable,” said Reps. John Moolenaar, Michigan Republican and panel chairman, and Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois, the panel’s ranking Democrat.

“This action only reinforces the need for the U.S. to take concrete steps to help strengthen Taiwan’s defenses and deter the CCP’s aggression,” the two lawmakers jointly stated.

Carl Schuster, a retired Navy captain and former military intelligence officer, said the exercises demonstrate increasing Chinese military capabilities for joint warfare operations beyond Taiwan, and capabilities for attacking the island from multiple directions.

Plans for the exercises probably began after the August 2022 war games and “as such, represents not only an examination and rehearsal of at least one component of Beijing’s campaign plan for conquering Taiwan,” he said.

“The Central Military Commission is examining how best to achieve that objective: isolation, conquest or a combination of both.”

New Chinese gray area

Retired Army Col. Larry Wortzel, a former military attaché in Beijing, said the exercises emphasized the vulnerability of Taiwan to military strikes from the western Pacific against the island’s east coast.

Operations at that location are intended to signal to the U.S. military that the PLA is preparing to attack intervening U.S. forces in a potential future conflict.

“It is very likely that there will be more exercises, and some will probably involve missile firings and the PLA air force,” Col. Wortzel said, though he added that an invasion between now and the November U.S. presidential election is unlikely.

“The Chinese Communist Party leadership also understands that the more exercises that they run, the more likely it is that there could be bipartisan agreement in the U.S. Congress for increased arms sales to Taiwan and to shore up the Pacific Defense Initiative,” he said.

Capt. Schuster said the use of Chinese coast guard ships was new, and a “gray zone” warfare tactic that made the exercises more complex than earlier drills.

Coast-guard ships could isolate outlying Taiwanese islands without committing an act of war by claiming they were operating under Chinese law.

However, use of the coast guard shows those vessels are now integrated into PLA theater-level operations, he said.

Political posturing

Capt. Schuster said the war games are setting a new pattern for normal military activities designed to make it more difficult to detect surprise attacks.

“Increasing military alert conditions and mobilizing defenses against a potential attack are expensive and disruptive; raising that profile increases the chance the [Taiwan] military and political leadership will delay the ‘get ready’ decision until it is too late,” Capt. Schuster said.

Politically, the war games also signal Taiwan, the United States and other nations that the PLA can change the fragile status quo around Taiwan at any time.

The exercises demonstrate PLA military advances in both joint doctrine and operations and significantly raise the pressure and stress on Taiwan’s political leaders and military forces, Capt. Schuster said.

Instead of an invasion the PLA could incrementally isolate Taiwan’s coastal islands or declare a “maritime exclusion zone” that would be less provocative than but similar to a blockade that would be an act of war, he said.

In the coming weeks, the PLA could conduct aircraft carrier operations around Taiwan along with marine amphibious drills and a large landing exercise, Capt. Schuster said.

Navy live fire and anti-submarine warfare exercises also are possible, he said.

Kerry K. Gershaneck, a retired military officer with decades of experience in China affairs, said the drills were a “classic political warfare master stroke” using a well-orchestrated campaign of military intimidation together with internal political subversion.

“This campaign is aimed at Taiwan’s newly inaugurated Lai administration of course, but the primary target is likely the Biden administration,” said Mr. Gershaneck, an Asia-based hybrid warfare expert with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

“By intimidating the Biden administration, Beijing is using lessons learned from the Hamas-Israel war in hopes to isolate Taiwan and demoralize it to the point that the Chinese Communist Party can easily annex it,” he said.

Beijing’s options

Capt. Fanell said the drills also appeared to debut a new command and control system for joint warfare identified in state media as a “joint operational system.”

A Chinese officer aboard a frigate said the warship was operating under complex scenarios and backed by “the theater command’s joint operational system.”

The system was used for vessel-to-aircraft joint anti-submarine operations and to control key areas of waters to the southwest of the island of Taiwan, the officer told state-run Global Times.

The warship linked its communications with naval and air forces operating east of Taiwan and shared target information for simulated joint strikes and “seizing control of major lanes, the officer said.

The latest Joint Sword exercise is the second of its kind, the first being held in April 2023 following the transit visit of then-Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen through the United States.

Last week’s exercises covered wider regions than earlier drills, including near the Taiwanese islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin close to the Chinese coast.

PLA military forces also practiced a “new model” of blockading Taiwan to prevent imports of energy on which the island relies, Global Times reported.

Although the war games appeared to end Friday, state media announced that segments B, C and D of Joint Sword 2024A would be carried out if Taiwan conducts provocations.

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry stated on X at the start of the war games that there are no winners in war.

“In the face of the CCP’s military drills, what we always believe and uphold is democracy and freedom,” the post said. “Regional stability is the universal goal, and we will continue to protect our beautiful homeland.”

Capt. Fanell said the United States needs to make sure Beijing understands that an invasion of Taiwan will not be allowed without great cost to China.

“It may seem escalatory to some, but the fact is the [People’s Republic of China] has been escalating conventional and nuclear forces for 25 years,” he said.  “It is time for America to stand up and lead the fight against the illegitimate communist regime in the PRC.”

• Bill Gertz can be reached at bgertz@washingtontimes.com.