China’s rapid buildup of missiles, bombers, submarines and nuclear warheads is continuing apace with no announced end goal, as part of a drive by the Chinese Communist Party to replace the United States as the world’s sole superpower, according to the Pentagon’s latest annual report on Chinese military power.
In addition to the large-scale nuclear force expansion, China is also rapidly expanding non-nuclear forces that now include the world’s largest navy, deployment of hypersonic missiles and plans for a new conventionally armed, intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking U.S. targets throughout the Pacific and within the continental United States, the report said.
The latest report contains more details than previous editions on the depth and extent of the Chinese military buildup, including satellite photographs of missile fields,as well as the strategy behind the effort.
The Chinese military is now the world’s largest with about 4 million troops, including 2.185 million active-duty soldiers, 1.17 million reservists and 660,000 paramilitary personnel.
The Pentagon analysts said Chinese President Xi Jinping is directing an effort to impose “structural changes” on the international system as part of a “clash of ideologies” — with the United States the main target.
Mr. Xi stated in a March 2023 speech that “Western countries led by the United States have implemented comprehensive containment, encirclement and suppression against us, bringing unprecedented severe challenges to our country’s development,” citing new or upgraded alliances and security arrangements with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, India and others in recent years.
The People’s Liberation Army is stepping up preparations for a future attack on Taiwan, the 212-page survey released Thursday said, and continues to encroach in strategic waterways in the region in violation of international law. However, the most detailed part of the report looks at China’s modernization of its nuclear weapons and delivery systems.
“Over the next decade, the PRC will continue to rapidly modernize, diversify and expand its nuclear forces,” the report states, using the acronym for People’s Republic of China. “Compared to the PLA’s nuclear modernization efforts a decade ago, current efforts dwarf previous attempts in both scale and complexity.”
House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers said the new annual report shows the Chinese military expansion is taking place faster than many in the U.S. defense establishment had anticipated and that current U.S. policy is failing to keep up.
“While China is building missiles and warheads at an astonishing rate, the U.S. cannot produce a single new ICBM or nuclear warhead,” the Alabama Republican said. “Senior military leaders have warned Congress of these developments for years, but the Biden administration has willfully ignored these warnings.”
But Chinese Embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu dismissed the report as part of a U.S. effort to hype various versions of the China threat through “groundless allegations and smears.”
“China is committed to a defensive nuclear strategy, keeps its nuclear capabilities at a minimum level required by national security, and does not target any country,” Mr. Liu said in an email.
Unclear nuclear path
The report says Beijing’s long-term nuclear arms plans are unclear — state media reports have called for a “mutually assured destruction” force, one that is very large and beyond Beijing’s long-stated goal of a limited arsenal.
A key element of the strategic force build-up has been the construction of three missile fields in western China, fields that the report for the first time reveals have been completed. The missile fields hold at least 300 new intercontinental ballistic missile silos, and some are now outfitted with multi-warhead missiles.
“These silo fields are capable of fielding both DF-31 and DF-41 class ICBMs,” the report said, noting the ground-based ICBMs and expansion of other missiles signals a shift to a new “launch-on-warning” missile posture for China.
New H-6N nuclear bombers also have been deployed and a new strategic bomber is on the drawing board. China’s navy has launched new ballistic missile submarines and plans for a more advanced class of missile submarines.
More Jin-class missile submarines are being built and current vessels are being armed with new JL-3 missiles that the report said can strike U.S. targets from waters near China’s coasts, including the Bohai Sea in the north and the South China Sea. The current missile submarine fleet includes six Jin-class each capable of firing up to 12 JL-2 or JL-3 missiles.
As of May, the warhead stockpile held more than 500 nuclear warheads, including new “multi-megaton warheads” on new DF-5C liquid-fueled ICBMs. A megaton is the equivalent of a million tons of TNT, and China plans to use them against U.S. cities in the case of an open conflict.
Pentagon intelligence estimates project the number of Chinese nuclear warheads at over 1,000 by 2030 and notes all will be deployed at higher readiness levels. By contrast, in 2020, the number of warheads was in “the low 200s,” the report said. The goal: to reach parity with the U.S. and Russia nuclear forces.
The nuclear expansion includes building more plutonium-producing reactors for missile warheads. The expansion is expected to continue through 2035 under the Xi government’s goal to develop a world-class military by 2049, the centennial of the Communist Party’s hold on power.
However, the report said Beijing has not acknowledged the scale of the massive expansion or announced how large its total arsenal will be. China also has rejected U.S. and international calls to disclose details about the buildup and to engage in arms talks.
China is moving away from its declared policy of not being the first to use nuclear arms in a conflict, and the report said Beijing would likely consider a nuclear escalation if its conventional forces were defeated in a war, such as one involving Taiwan, that would threaten the survival of the regime.
For example, new missiles in the three western China bases are said to be operating under what the PLA calls “early warning counterstrike” — another term for launch on warning, the report said. Three missile warning satellites were launched in 2013 to support the early counterstrike posture, the report said.
On Taiwan, the report states that the PLA “is preparing for a contingency to unify Taiwan with the PRC by force if perceived as necessary by Beijing, while simultaneously deterring, delaying or denying any third-party intervention, such as the United States and/or other like-minded partners, on Taiwan’s behalf.”
U.S. analysts warn that the PLA’s commingling of its nuclear and conventional missile forces is increasing instability since the nature of a missile warhead may not be determined until after detonation.
U.S. nuclear doctrine calls for firing retaliatory nuclear missiles as soon as incoming nuclear strikes are detected by satellites and other sensors.
China’s land-based missiles, including many deployed on difficult-to-find road-mobile launchers, include 350 ICBMs that can reach targets in the United States.
The H-6 is based on the Russia Tu-16 Badger bomber. The Pentagon report said the bombers are capable of firing air-launched ballistic missiles equipped with maneuvering warheads. The new air-launched missile, along with the intermediate-range DF-26 missile, are “likely capable of conducting nuclear precision strikes against targets in the Indo-Pacific theater,” the report said.
A new radar-evading stealth H-20 bomber is also being developed.
“The PLA seeks a diverse nuclear force, comprised of systems ranging from low-yield precision strike missiles to ICBMs with multi-megaton yields,” the report said.
Conventional power
On conventional arms, the report disclosed that the Chinese are building a hypersonic missile that orbits in space before striking targets on land or sea. The missile was tested in 2021 and traveled nearly 25,000 miles.
Other hypersonic missiles, including the deployed DF-17, likely will replace some of the 2,000 short-range missiles in the Chinese arsenal, the report said.
For regional conflicts, the PLA is working on low-yield nuclear warheads for its shorter-range missiles to reduce collateral damage in a conflict. The small warheads would be used on the DF-26.
The PLA also is working to project power globally through its expanding navy although the immediate objective is aimed at preparing to fight a regional war. The navy includes 370 warships and submarines including 140 major surface combatants. A third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, was launched in 2022.
The expanding fleet includes amphibious warships and the use of civilian roll-on/roll-off transport ships for its military operations.
Non-kinetic warfare developments are also outlined in the report, including advanced cyber warfare capabilities capable of attacking critical U.S. infrastructure, information warfare, and psychological and cognitive warfare tools.
“The PLA is pursuing next-generation combat capabilities based on its vision of future conflict, which it calls ‘intelligentized warfare,’ defined by the expanded use of AI and other advanced technologies at every level of warfare,” the report said.
“The PRC can launch cyberspace attacks that, at a minimum, can cause localized, temporary disruptions to critical infrastructure within the United States, and the PRC believes these capabilities are even more effective against militarily superior adversaries that depend on information technologies.”
In a war with the United States, Chinese cyberattacks will seek to “paralyze the enemy’s operational system of systems” and “sabotage the enemy’s war command system of systems” early in a conflict, the report said.
Chinese cyberattacks against the Pentagon continued throughout 2022, the report said.
As part of the military buildup, China has built and is continuing to build deep underground structures that hide its weapons, including nuclear arms and missiles. The underground expansion is expected to continue to support the large-scale nuclear force.
The report said the Chinese rocket forces include 500 ICBM launchers with 350 missiles; 250 intermediate-range launchers and 500 missiles; 300 medium-range launchers with 1,000 missiles; 200 short-range launchers with 1,000 missiles and 150 ground-launched cruise missile launchers with 300 missiles.
• Bill Gertz can be reached at bgertz@washingtontimes.com.