An unprecedented political movement in Taiwan aims to overturn a legislative majority that, at the behest of Beijing, according to some analysts, has stymied the governance of President Lai Ching-te.

The most important test for the pushback against China comes Saturday in recall elections that could shift Taiwan’s legislative landscape and empower the strongly anti-Beijing Mr. Lai before the end of the year.

The cracks in the Taiwanese political system came to the fore in the 2024 general election.

Although Mr. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party won the presidency, the main opposition Kuomintang and a third party, the Taiwan People’s Party, captured a narrow majority in the Legislative Yuan.

Since the election, the opposition bloc has quashed or watered down many of Mr. Lai’s initiatives. It has slashed the budget for a domestic submarine program and blocked moves to increase defense spending and combat Chinese influence operations.

Beijing, which claims the democratically ruled island under the “One China” policy, strongly opposes Mr. Lai. It dubs him “a creator of crises.”

China has ramped up the intimidation of Taiwan, notably with aerial probes and naval drills, under Mr. Lai’s rule.

DPP supporters reckon some KMT lawmakers are pro-Beijing, or beholden to China’s communist leaders.

They are especially riled by KMT Caucus Whip Fu Kun-chi, who led an “icebreaker” party delegation last year in a chummy meeting with Chinese leaders.

Amid a belief that the KMT has overplayed its hand in the legislature, blowback looms.

“Within Taiwanese society lies a deeply valuable civic force that emerges in times of crisis or need,” Mr. Lai said in a speech last month, citing past civic movements.

Taiwan’s domestic tug-of-war mirrors a similar confrontation unfolding in South Korea between the Yoon Suk Yeol presidency and an opposition-controlled legislature.

Mr. Yoon failed to reverse that situation with a martial law decree in December. He was impeached in April and is currently detained and on trial.

The DPP’s voters are leading the process in Taiwan, so Mr. Lai is not at risk if it falters.

‘The Great Recall’

The movement, dubbed “The Great Recall,” leverages a Taiwanese constitutional mechanism.

A recall is a constituent’s right to petition for a by-election, one year after an election, if 10% of voters in the constituency sign on. If the Central Election Commission certifies the legitimacy of the signatures and processes, voting takes place.

In recent weeks, the commission has verified processes in multiple constituencies. Voting is imminent.

The first and largest tranche of recall votes — 24, all for KMT-held seats — is set for Saturday. Seven more seats will be up for vote in August.

To pass, the number of votes to remove a lawmaker must exceed those in support. At least a quarter of eligible voters in a constituency must cast a ballot.

If the vote goes against the incumbent, a by-election is held within three months.

That points to by-elections in October and November.

Pundits anticipate by-elections for as many as a quarter of the Legislative Yuan’s 113 seats, including almost half the opposition-held seats.

Tantalizingly for DPP supporters, a swing of just six seats is enough to grant the party a legislative majority.

The “Great Recall” is a DPP initiative, but KMT activists have retaliated in mass and in-kind protests. Their recall processes failed to pass Central Election Commission scrutiny, meaning no DPP seats are in play Saturday.

“The recall wave amounts to a virtual mid-term election,” Bo Tedards, a longtime American observer of Taiwanese politics, said in a report for the Global Taiwan Institute.

It is extraordinary and probably unique: In most democracies, recall applies to the local, not national level. In the U.S., Arnold Schwarzenneger famously won California’s governorship via recall.

“The idea of a mass recall is kind of an innovation,” Mr. Tedards said in an interview. “This may be the first time in the world that anyone has tried a mass recall of national members of parliament, I believe.”

High stakes

Tech billionaire Robert Tsao, a former KMT supporter, now calls the party “China’s Trojan horse in Taiwan.”

Other DPP supporters are equally suspicious.

“These KMT legislators have, over the past year, acted in ways that significantly diverge from their original promises to voters,” said Chen Yun-chu, an academic and vice president of an association of Taiwanese expatriates in Washington. “They have … blindly pushed through policies aligned with the Chinese government.”

Taiwanese have identified a serious threat, they say.

“At stake is whether Taiwan remains a functioning front-line democracy or a hollowed shell of one,” said Orina Chang, founder of Chang Development Co., an investment firm that promotes democracy. “The Chinese Communist Party doesn’t need to fire a missile if it can quietly reshape Taiwan’s institutions from within.”

The Great Recall is “a public immune response to that threat,” she said. “It is a reminder to democracies everywhere that defense begins not at the border but in the legislature, in the constitution and in the resolve of ordinary citizens.”

Beijing is crying foul.

In June, Chinese officials overseeing Taiwan policy denounced the recall as a “political scheme” by Mr. Lai, according to Reuters.

Taiwan’s president is “engaging in dictatorship under the guise of democracy,” China’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Zhu Fenglian said, accusing him of “using every means possible to suppress the opposition.”

These vocal, blunt commentaries embarrass the KMT as they fortify beliefs of Chinese support.

“This is our business. It is the two parties, the DPP and the KMT, fighting for public support, for public recognition,” a KMT spokesperson told Reuters. “It has nothing to do with the Mainland.”

Recall supporters rebut Beijing’s accusations.

“The recall is not an attempt to overturn democracy; it is part of a democratic system,” said Kenichi Ishi, a recall volunteer in Japan, a nation with close ties to Taiwan. “It has clear legal thresholds … calling this ‘overturning democracy’ misrepresents the principle of democratic accountability.”

One expert reckons that the passion and creativity of the recall movement speak volumes about Taiwanese attitudes.

“This demonstrates again that Taiwanese civil society is resilient in the face of Chinese Communist Party pressure,” Mr. Tedards said.

• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.