Chinese President Xi Jinping is determined to retake Taiwan for the Chinese Communist Party by 2027, either with coercive methods or through a kinetic war, a retired CIA officer says.
David Sauer described Taiwan’s position in the coming years Tuesday, telling a virtual forum hosted by The Washington Times Foundation that the U.S. needs to be ready to counter Beijing’s efforts to reunify the democratically governed island with the communist-run mainland.
“Xi Jinping has been crystal clear about his strategic intent. He wants to reunify with Taiwan, and he’s made that very clear to everyone,” Mr. Sauer said. “And what’s in it for him? Well, if he’s successful and he’s successful in doing this without resorting to kinetic, he’ll go down in Chinese history as one of the greatest leaders of all time.”
Indeed, a Chinese military intervention or invasion in Taiwan is Beijing’s last resort, Mr. Sauer said. China is more invested in using a coercive policy focused on economic punishment and military intimidation without the use of force, he said. However, while China may not be ready for a war over Taiwan, Mr. Xi still needs a military to back up his coercive strategy.
“But the fact is that he needs that kinetic option,” Mr. Sauer said. “And he has told his commanders, according to multiple press reports, to be ready by 2027 to give him the full range of options in order to try to take Taiwan, and that includes the full-scale invasion.”
Mr. Sauer urged the U.S. to think of China not as an emerging power, but as a peer competitor that must be taken seriously.
“They are a peer competitor. They are a blue water navy. Their navy is larger than ours in numbers. Their air force is either as large or is going to be larger quite soon. They’ve made massive increases in their capabilities, their nuclear weapons capabilities, their space capabilities,” he said. “They have incredible capability or gaining incredible capability, which is only going to grow through, through 2027.”
Mr. Sauer attributed the Chinese military’s strength to the government’s focus on defense spending and development over the past few years. While China has suffered setbacks to its consumer economy due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the country has increased spending on defense. Recent estimates put China’s yearly defense expenditure at $541 billion, or 59% of U.S. spending.
China spends far more on defense than Taiwan, which is unable to withstand a full-scale kinetic attack from the mainland, he noted. As a result, Taiwan will be forced to adopt a “porcupine” strategy, which prioritizes smaller, mobile systems that would improve the island’s survivability in an intensive war with China, Mr. Sauer said. Taiwan also is facing political gridlock, which has stalled critical defense contracts and hindered the nation’s development of submarines and drones, he added.
These setbacks mean that the U.S. would need to provide Taiwan with significant assistance in the event of a kinetic attack from China. However, while it would likely be costly, Mr. Sauer says it is in the U.S.’ best interest to help Taiwan.
According to Mr. Sauer, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry cannot be easily replicated. The U.S. has made headway thanks to the CHIPS Act, which gave subsidies for foreign companies to invest in semiconductor production in the U.S., but it will take years to catch up to Taiwan, he said. If China succeeds in reuniting with Taiwan, it could be strategically dangerous for U.S. dominance in artificial intelligence, aerospace and consumer electronics.
Mr. Sauer said a Chinese-led blockade on Taiwan could result in $5 trillion worth of damage to the global economy.
“Beijing may say, ‘The Americans put chip restrictions on us, maybe we want chip restrictions on them.’ And they could easily retaliate against us,” Mr. Sauer said. “And that would be very difficult for the United States. It would take us a while to firmly develop that semiconductor industry and the whole system around it. So in that sense, Taiwan is very indispensable to the global economy.”
Historically, the U.S. has guaranteed defense for Taiwan. But the Trump administration’s wavering position on providing arms assistance to Ukraine in its war with Russia has left some worried about the White House’s position on defending Taiwan. Mr. Sauer says Taiwan should reaffirm its alignment with the U.S. by purchasing U.S. goods to give the White House further incentive to guarantee the island’s independence from China.
“I’m sure the leadership in Taiwan could really use some type of reassurance from the Trump administration,” Mr. Sauer said. “Try to buy more U.S. agricultural goods, really try to make themselves an integral part of the economy with the United States. And advanced technology firms really should consider investing in the United States, and they have. And I think you’ll see more of that moving forward.”
Mr. Sauer also added that the U.S. should significantly increase its hard power in Southeast Asia, quietly communicating to Mr. Xi that an attack on Taiwan would be expensive and not in his favor.
“I think it’s got to be hard power. I think it’s got to be U.S. military powers increasing in the region,” he said. “I would just quietly amass military power as much as I could, I mean, without giving up our other commitments. To show him that if he does roll the dice, there’s going to be a big problem. And he probably won’t win. And, you know, if he does try to go for a kinetic option and he fails, the real good chance his regime would fall. So you have to make it clear to him that if you guys do do this, there’s going to be a war and you might lose, and that’s going to be an existential threat to the Chinese Communist Party’s continued rule in China.”
• Vaughn Cockayne can be reached at vcockayne@washingtontimes.com.